Welcome to The ESSENTIAL NFL Newsletter’s first 2024 mock draft!
As I kick this off, a big thanks to Pro Football Focus for the terrific mock draft simulator. Very cool tool that allows anyone to go through a mock with all sorts of resources at their disposal.
I don’t evaluate college tape, so in addition to PFF’s outlooks, I referenced NFL.com’s Daniel Jeremiah and The Athletic’s Dane Brugler for this work. Between the three sources, I get a good feel for the draft class’s depth and star power at various positions, then roll that in with my breakdown of each NFL roster to lay out the first round. (If you’re interested in reading more about each team’s offseason outlook, I have linked the team name to in-depth breakdowns).
With that said, let’s kick this off!
1. Chicago: Caleb Williams, QB, USC
I’m a big believer in Justin Fields and his development - the traits are off the charts, but he needs a better fit at offensive coordinator - but whether it’s the Bears or someone else making this pick, USC’s Caleb Williams seems set to be the first pick. We’ll discuss Fields’s potential landing spots further down, but whether it is him or Williams under center in 2024, getting the opportunity to play with receiver D.J. Moore, tight end Cole Kmet, and the tackle tandem of Braxton Jones and Darnell Wright is a pretty solid place to be, especially if the Bears add another weapon.
2. Washington: Drake Maye, QB, UNC
The draft community appears somewhat split on North Carolina’s Drake Maye and LSU’s Jayden Daniels, but the lean seems to be toward Maye. It only takes one team - and new Washington GM Adam Peters isn’t going to tell us if he’s against the consensus - but with reports that the NFL is down on the 2025 quarterback class, it would be a shock to see Washington pass on one of these highly regarded prospects.
3. New England: Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
There is all sorts of talk about whether New England is ready for a rookie quarterback; my stance is that things change fast in the NFL and if the quarterback is talented enough, it’s tough to wait around. On paper, the Houston Texans had their tackle tandem of Laremy Tunsil and Tytus Howard (who had recently signed an extension) and running back Dameon Pierce. Tunsil was his usual elite self, but Howard missed most of the season due to injury, and Pierce busted. Despite that, quarterback C.J. Stroud still transformed Nico Collins from an unknown into a star, turned Tank Dell into a draft steal, and made Noah Brown one of the better bargain free-agent signings. That’s the extreme positive, but the right guy at quarterback makes everything go, so the Patriots might as well get their guy if the grade makes sense.
4. Arizona: Marvin Harrison Jr, WR, Ohio State
It’s a ways out, but I predict that Arizona’s phone will be ringing when they get to this pick. The offers might get desperate - see the above note on the 2025 quarterback class - but general manager Monti Ossenfort elects not to pass on the opportunity to pair Kyler Murray with Marvin Harrison Jr. now that the Cardinals have re-committed to their franchise quarterback. If Arizona brings back Marquise Brown, the Cardinals would have several flavors of pass-catchers between Harrison, Brown, Michael Wilson, and tight end Trey McBride.
5. Atlanta (TRADE UP): J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan
Current Chargers and ex-Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh kicked it off when he speculated that his former quarterback, Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy, might be the number one pick; now the buzz is building. The common refrain from draft analysts is that you have to watch a LOT of games to get the pass reps you want, but there are a lot of positive notes on McCarthy’s poise, mobility, and ball placement.
If it plays out this way, Harbaugh’s comment would prove strategically valuable; with a trio of possible playmakers (more on them soon) available, the Chargers can take advantage of a robust trade market for the fourth quarterback, with Minnesota, Denver, and Las Vegas all pushing to make an offer. However, the Chargers still get a premium player in a loaded class if they swap with the Falcons, who decide to go with McCarthy rather than making a play for Justin Fields.
6. New York Giants: Malik Nabers, WR, LSU
Giants fans who are ready to be done with Daniel Jones don’t know what to think; the top four quarterbacks are off the board before they pick at six, but that forces down two receivers and an offensive tackle whom analysts are RAVING about. New York goes with Malik Nabers out of LSU, who is neck-and-neck with Washington’s Rome Odunze in many rankings, hoping to get that “young OBJ” feel out of the Bayou again.
7. Tennessee: Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame
Too chalk? First-year head coach Brian Callahan gets to add the top offensive lineman in the class to a position room that will be coached by his father, legendary assistant Bill Callahan. Tennessee’s offensive line has been an issue for multiple years, so this seems easy, but if they want to add some juice so Will Levis can drop bombs down the field, perhaps Washington receiver Rome Odunze comes into play.
8. Los Angeles Chargers (TRADE DOWN): Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
The Chargers trade down and still pair Brock Bowers, the top tight end in the class, with head coach Jim Harbaugh. Los Angeles could also elect to go with Washington’s Rome Odunze if they move on from Keenan Allen or Mike Williams, or target an offensive tackle if they want to upgrade on Trey Pipkins on the right side, but Bowers is an interesting fit given Harbaugh’s long-time affinity for tight ends. There is the positional value to consider, but tight end is a weird position in that certain players at the top of the market generate significant cap surplus because they should be getting paid as receivers (see: Travis Kelce). Odunze offers more relative value now, but would also be far more expensive to extend if you hit on him.
9. Chicago: Rome Odunze, WR, Washington
The Bears continue to load up at receiver, bringing in Washington’s Rome Odunze to complement D.J. Moore. Caleb Williams is ecstatic to take in the rest of the first round with his new teammate; Odunze, who could have gone as early as number six, benefits from getting dropped in on a reasonably talented offense.
10. New York Jets: Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT, Penn State
The Jets get the offensive tackle who apparently would have been the first player selected at his position in 2023, which is quite a boon. I always find these players intriguing; whether it was Derwin James at Florida State or Creed Humphrey at Oklahoma, sometimes guys play dominant ball early and fall off a bit, only to immediately establish themselves as playmakers when they arrive in the NFL and the noise gets turned up.
11. Minnesota: Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama
The Vikings miss out on the quarterback sweepstakes and are an odd fit for Justin Fields, whether or not Kirk Cousins is back on the roster. Instead, they bring in the top-rated edge rusher, Alabama’s Dallas Turner, who would either play opposite a dominant force in Danielle Hunter or serve as a replacement if the veteran moves on.
12. Denver: Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama
Denver doubles down here, trading a package of a mid-round pick in 2024 and a 2nd round pick in 2025 for their new quarterback, Justin Fields. Head coach Sean Payton, who found plenty of ways to use Taysom Hill at quarterback with the Saints, is amped to have a potential answer at quarterback on a roster that is structured to win now.
Meanwhile, the Broncos upgrade the spot across from Patrick Surtain with a fellow Alabama alum; Arnold has emerged as arguably the top cornerback in the class, and is a solid value at 12.
13. Las Vegas Raiders: Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo
How cool would Justin Fields have looked in the Silver and Black? Alas, the Raiders hired old Bears offensive coordinator Luke Getsy to the same position on head coach Antonio Pierce’s staff, and that would make for an exceptionally odd reunion.
The Raiders get stuck holding the bag at quarterback in this go-round, but they do get Quinyon Mitchell, a Toledo product who would be a great fit on this defense, which already has a superstar from the MAC Conference in All-Pro defensive end Maxx Crosby, an Eastern Michigan product.
14. New Orleans: Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State
The selection of Trevor Penning at left tackle has not worked out and New Orleans may not have the cap space to bring back veterans Andrus Peat and James Hurst. That leaves the left tackle and left guard spots vacant; Taliese Fuaga, an Oregon State product, could fill in one of those slots.
15. Indianapolis: Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa
The Colts have some interesting options in the defensive backfield, where slot cornerback Kenny Moore and safety Julian Blackmon are free agents. This might be high for Iowa’s Cooper DeJean, but with the offensive line set and more investment in the defensive line, Indianapolis adds a defensive back who gives them some positional versatility. I also strongly considered LSU’s Brian Thomas Jr.; whether or not Michael Pittman Jr. is back, it might be nice to add some juice on the outside, where Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce rely on size more than speed.
16. Seattle: Byron Murphy II, DT, Texas
Seattle seems unlikely to re-sign midseason trade acquisition Leonard Williams given their cap situation and change in coaching staff; Texas defensive tackle Byron Murphy is the highest-rated player at the position and fits with that need.
17. Jacksonville: Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU
This selection assumes that the Jaguars don’t re-sign Calvin Ridley due to cap constraints. If Ridley is back in the fold, Clemson cornerback Nate Wiggins would be the pick. The offensive tackles are also intriguing; Jacksonville would have to get creative with Cam Robinson and Anton Harrison already in place, but the Jaguars could use a dominant presence on the line.
18. Cincinnati: J.C. Latham, OT, Alabama
The Bengals pair Alabama’s J.C. Latham with current left tackle Orlando Brown Jr. to give themselves the biggest offensive tackle tandem in the NFL. Cincinnati has thrown all sorts of resources at the offensive line over the past few years, but outside of Brown, they did not get players with elite traits; Latham could allow them to establish a bully up front.
19. Los Angeles Rams: Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson
The Rams could add to the offensive line or edge rush with the available pool of prospects, but they elect to add to the defensive backfield with Clemson cornerback Nate Wiggins. The Rams might sign some free agents before the draft, but as it stands, Wiggins would be the second-highest-paid player on this defense behind Aaron Donald, the only player making more than $1.5 million per year. Defensive coordinator Raheem Morris did a great job with this group last season, but the Rams need more talent on this side of the ball.
20. Pittsburgh: Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia
The Steelers, who drafted Broderick Jones in the first round last year, decide they like adding physically imposing linemen in the draft instead of journeymen veterans in free agency. With two picks, Pittsburgh goes from one of the least athletically talented lines to a group that can move people up front to set up new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith’s play-action-heavy attack. Stick tight end Darnell Washington next to either one of these players, and you should have the potential to completely collapse an edge.
21. Miami: Jackson Powers-Johnson, C, Oregon
The Dolphins lose veteran center Connor Williams to free agency, but add Jackson Powers-Johnson, a center who is lauded for his pulling, to pave the way for De’Von Achane. It’s a good fit regardless - and the Dolphins could slide Williams to guard if he is back - but the idea of getting Powers-Johnson, who draws rave reviews for his general exuberance as a player, on the move as a puller on some of Miami’s creative outside runs with Achane…it’s just a blast.
22. Philadelphia: Jared Verse, EDGE, Florida State
With reports that Haason Reddick has been given permission to seek a trade, the Eagles go back to a familiar well, adding Florida State edge rusher Jared Verse to the mix with Josh Sweat and Nolan Smith. Like Smith, a 2023 1st-rounder, Verse will be able to come along at his own pace as the Eagles continue to maintain a deep pool of talent on the defensive line. Offensive line is a powerful temptation, but the Eagles opt to stick with their bets on center Cam Jurgens and right guard Tyler Steen - along with another quality from right tackle Lane Johnson - as they move into the first year of the post-Jason Kelce era.
23. Houston: Laiatu Latu, EDGE, UCLA
This board was not quite as exciting as an alternative shakeout that had LSU WR Brian Thomas Jr. joining up with C.J. Stroud and company, but it doesn’t hurt to add some juice to the pass rush. Houston’s bigger needs are arguably in the secondary, but Latu, the last player in this glut of edge rushers, looks like the better value (at least as draft boards stand today). There would be some redundancy if they bring back Jonathan Greenard, but Will Anderson is more than capable of sliding inside and wreaking havoc over a guard in pass-rush situations; if Latu can rush the passer, head coach DeMeco Ryans will figure out a way to make it work. The Texans could also opt to add an offensive lineman, but they’ve invested quite a bit in that line; now they need those players to stay healthy.
24. Dallas: Troy Fautanu, OT, Washington
If left tackle Tyron Smith’s time has come to an end in Dallas, Washington’s Troy Fautanu could be an ideal replacement. If the Cowboys want to kick current left guard Tyler Smith out to tackle, they have that option, or they could allow Smith and right guard Zack Martin to continue forming one of the NFL’s more talented tandems on the interior.
25. Kansas City (TRADE UP): Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma
This might be a stretch - the mid-round pick the Chiefs would give up to make this trade could turn into a quality receiver in this draft - but as I lay out in my Kansas City roster reset, landing a left tackle in this draft would give the Chiefs a tremendous amount of flexibility in a position room that is slated to get very expensive in 2025. By trading up for Guyton - who is seen in a similar tier as Latham, Mims, and Fautanu on many boards - the Chiefs fill a need for 2024 and avoid a situation where they have to address multiple holes on the line simultaneously in 2025. Green Bay, who has hit on a pair of late-round draft picks at tackle in Rasheed Walker and Zach Tom, is happy to add an extra pick on a roster that could take multiple swings at safety in the middle rounds.
26. Tampa Bay: Graham Barton, OL, Duke
The Buccaneers exceeded expectations on the offensive line in 2023, and they can push it to another level by slotting Duke’s Graham Barton in at the left guard spot next to tackle Tristan Wirfs. As it stands, the group lacks a blue-chip on the interior, but center Rob Hainsey and right guard Cody Mauch are solid enough on rookie deals; if Wirfs, Barton, and third-year right tackle Luke Goedeke all slot in as “plus” players, the Bucs would have one of the more promising young lines in the NFL.
27. Arizona: Jer’Zhan Newton, DT, Illinois
The Cardinals go with the consensus best defender available. Edge rusher Dennis Gardeck helped to lead a feisty defense to better-than-expected results in 2023, but this defense needs a significant infusion of talent; Jer’Zhan Newton, the defensive tackle out of Illinois, could help them start to establish a foundation up front.
28. Buffalo: Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas
Who knows what the narrative will be a month from now, but as it stands, Texas’s Adonai Mitchell is at the top of five or six receivers who could slot in as the #5 player at the position behind LSU’s Brian Thomas. With Gabe Davis likely to depart in free agency, the Bills look to keep the offense loaded for 2024 and give themselves some flexibility if the Stefon Diggs situation unravels at some point.
29. Detroit: Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama
Cornerback Kool-Aid McKinstry emerges from a heated debate in Detroit’s draft room; if they elect to allow standout left guard Jonah Jackson to walk in free agency, West Virginia’s Zach Frazier would be an option, but I’m assuming that the Lions will re-sign their own given how well things are rolling. That frees them up to add Kool-Aid McKinstry, who was the top corner on many boards heading into the season; the Lions also consider adding Missouri’s Darius Robinson to the defensive line, but elect to prioritize the outside cornerback position with Aidan Hutchinson and Alim McNeill leading the charge up front.
30. Baltimore: Jordan Morgan, OL, Arizona
The Ravens, who face some significant decisions on the offensive line, get a break when Arizona’s Jordan Morgan is still on the board. Baltimore presently has two free-agent guards and could elect to change tack at offensive tackle if the injury problems are enough of a concern; in either case, Morgan could be a fit. Some draft analysts think he could play tackle, and most love the idea of him at guard; in fact, the 49ers might not be happy about this pick if it plays out this way, as Morgan has been highlighted as a great fit for their scheme.
31. San Francisco: Darius Robinson, EDGE, Missouri
This scenario sees the 49ers miss out on the offensive line options, which isn’t the worst thing in the world, given that they return their top 5 linemen in terms of snaps played (right guard Spencer Burford lost his starting job down the stretch, but is not a lost cause). Instead, they address the defensive line, where Nick Bosa, Arik Armstead, Javon Hargrave, and Drake Jackson are the only proven contributors under contract; Robinson, who is noted for his length and versatility, could add to San Francisco’s depth on the edge and the interior.
32. Green Bay (TRADE DOWN): Zach Frazier, C/G, West Virginia
The Packers take a hard look at Missouri cornerback Ennis Rakestraw Jr., but in a time-honored Packers tradition stretching back to the immortal Kevin King, elect to bank on the oft-injured Eric Stokes making it onto the field in 2025. Instead, they go with West Virginia’s Zach Frazier, an interior lineman noted for his physical style of play. Green Bay has hit on some quality players on the offensive line in late rounds - most notably the tackle tandem of Rasheed Walker and Zach Tom - but with Elgton Jenkins not quite the player he was before his knee injury, Frazier adds an element of physicality and nasty to the group in front of Jordan Love.
No 1st-Round Pick
33. Carolina: Troy Franklin, WR, Oregon
The Panthers don’t have a first-round pick, but they do have the first pick in the second round. In this scenario, they start to address last year’s lack of speed at receiver by drafting Oregon’s Troy Franklin, a tall receiver with big-time speed to go along with veteran Adam Thielen. If last year’s second-round pick, Jonathan Mingo, makes a jump in Year Two, Bryce Young could be throwing to a markedly improved group in Year Two.
54. Cleveland: N/A
The Browns are far enough down the board that it’s hardly worth speculating. This team has an interesting few months ahead; whether or not they make any adjustments to quarterback Deshaun Watson’s contract would appear to be the starting point.
Wrapping Up
Thanks for checking out this Mock Draft from The ESSENTIAL NFL Newsletter. I will do another one of these as we get more information on roster moves and draft board movement; in the meantime, check out the 2024 Roster Resets and look out for updates on any league transactions!