The first offensive snap of the 2023 season was absolutely phenomenal for the New York Jets; after months of hype about how four-time MVP Aaron Rodgers would fit in with one of the NFL’s top defenses, running back Breece Hall opened New York’s first drive with a 26-yard carry.
As far as positives went, that was about it; three ill-fated pass attempts later, Rodgers ended after two incompletions, a sack, and a torn Achilles. The fact that Rodgers underwent an innovative approach to the recovery from the Achilles that would have had him pushing to play near the end of the season had the team remained relevant is a positive heading into the offseason. Aside from that, it’s hard to find much reason to muster the same optimism about the season to come.
Like Tom Brady in Tampa Bay before him, Rodgers attracted a long list of players when he arrived in New York, but unlike Brady, Rodgers wasn’t around to make any of that work out, and after running back Dalvin Cook, offensive tackle Billy Turner, and receivers Mecole Hardman, Randall Cobb, and Allen Lazard all flopped, it’s harder to talk yourself into the idea that reinforcements are on the way.
The Jets still have a dominant defense and a pair of explosive young skill players on offense, but as it stands, they have just $8 million in cap space, and without a second-round pick, are under a lot of pressure to nail their picks at #10 and #72.
2023 was, at the least, cause for excitement amongst Jets fans; will general manager Joe Douglas be able to do enough in the coming offseason to create similar vibes for 2024?
Skill Positions: Where is the Depth?
The Jets have star power on offense; most teams in the NFL would be happy to have running back Breece Hall and wide receiver Garrett Wilson at the top of their depth chart, particularly with both players on their rookie deals.
The positives end there. C.J. Uzomah and Tyler Conklin are both solid, versatile players at tight end, but a combined $20 million per year is a lot to commit to that pair, particularly when they have $13 million committed to Allen Lazard, who is valued as much for his size as a blocker as his receiving skills.
Beyond those names, the only player of note on the depth chart is receiver Xavier Gipson, which is problematic in a draft where the Jets lack picks. Perhaps they get lucky and hit on a receiver with the 72nd pick, but with the 10th pick earmarked for an offensive tackle, New York is short on avenues to supplement their receiver room with a meaningful complement to Wilson, or to acquire more than a replacement-level backup to Hall.
That said, it would be a bigger issue to leave the tackle position unaddressed.
New York’s Offensive Line: Overpriced, Injured, or Headed for Free Agency
The Jets got caught in a tough spot in the 2023 Draft when the last of the 4 offensive linemen to go in the top 26 picks (Steelers OT Broderick Jones) came off the board one pick before New York’s pick.
That was unfortunate, but New York’s disastrous season along the offensive line was based on more than one bad break on draft night. It’s an issue that can be traced back to missing on the selection of Mekhi Becton in the first round and that has been further complicated by fellow first-rounder Alijah Vera-Tucker’s injury woes; there have been several other moves that contributed, but it’s tough to build anything when both of your first-round picks in the position room struggle to contribute as expected.
With center Connor McGovern slated for free agency, the only competent, healthy offensive lineman the Jets have coming back is guard Laken Tomlinson, who is scheduled for a cap hit of $18 million in the final year of his deal. That might make Tomlinson a cut candidate on another roster, but the Jets also might not want to go upsetting the one lineman who made it through last season, even with their cap woes.
Perhaps Joe Tippmann, who did play a lot of football as a second-round rookie, takes his game to the next level next season; if that happens, and Vera-Tucker returns to form and stays healthy, the Jets could be in reasonable shape on the interior. But that doesn’t solve the hole at offensive tackle; expect every mock draft you read this year to pencil in a tackle for the Jets at the 10th overall pick.
All in all, a lot of things need to align for this offense to meet the expectations some had for Rodgers and company before the 2023 season. Fortunately, the defense requires less attention, though there are some questions to answer - and limited resources to answer them with.
Re-Loading on Defense
The good news on defense is that at every level, the stars are back. Defensive linemen Quinnen Williams, John Franklin-Myers, Jermaine Johnson, and Will McDonald, linebackers C.J. Mosley and Quincy Williams, and cornerbacks Sauce Gardner, D.J. Reed, and Michael Carter are all under contract for 2024.
Mosley is a bit of a question mark with a cap hit of $21 million, but the more I look at New York’s roster breakdown on Spotrac, and fully appreciate how many voided contracts this organization is going to be paying off over the next few seasons, the more I think they should just throw caution to the wind and max out the credit cards; it might mean a crash landing in 2025 or 2026, but they’re going to have a bumpy transition whenever Rodgers leaves, so they might as well go for broke.
If the Jets take that approach, they could maintain continuity at safety by retaining Jordan Whitehead, or keep some of their depth on the defensive line in the form of edge rusher Bryce Huff and versatile piece Quinton Jefferson, who all look likely to depart given New York’s current cap constraints.
Whether or not they bring back those players, New York’s defense is talented enough to post another Top 5 season; the biggest thing they are fighting against is randomness. For two years, the Jets have largely had things go their way in terms of avoiding injury and players maintaining or building on their previous standard of play, but three years is a long time to go without losing a critical piece or seeing a star’s playing standard decline.
Hopefully that doesn’t happen, because this Williams-brother-led defense is an absolute blast to watch, but like all things, nothing lasts forever - especially in the NFL - and that goes for future Hall of Fame quarterbacks as well.
Early 2024 Projection: 4th in AFC East