When the Kansas City Chiefs won the Super Bowl the year after trading superstar receiver Tyreek Hill, it appeared they had hit “escape velocity” as a dynasty.
A year later, it’s indisputable. Their two first-round picks in the Hill offseason, cornerback Trent McDuffie and edge rusher George Karlaftis, emerged as two of the most impactful players on this year’s dominant defense. There are questions to answer - defensive tackle Chris Jones and cornerback L’Jarius Sneed are pending free agents - but the Chiefs have $23 million in 2024 cap space to figure that out, along with a mere $163 and $100 million committed to 2025 and 2026. (all contract numbers per Spotrac).
The Chiefs have arguably the best quarterback in NFL history (Patrick Mahomes), a top-tier braintrust on the coaching staff (head coach Andy Reid, defensive coordinator Steve Spagnaulo, special teams coordinator Dave Toub), and a sound roster-building approach under general manager Brett Veach. Their roster balance had drifted into dangerous territory near the end of Mahomes’s rookie deal, but in hindsight, Veach struck the perfect balance between maxing out that early version of this team and the next evolution, pulling the trigger when he could get a significant trade haul in exchange for Hill. The Chiefs needed to load up on rookie contracts to make all of this work, and they’ve done exactly that.
In other words, the three-peat is a very real possibility.
The Big Picture
The Chiefs are in a great spot today, but the Mahomes dynasty is going to be a non-stop process of reloading in the draft. Kansas City is dealing from a position of strength this year, but they need to be prepared as their value contracts disappear.
The offensive line is a perfect example; center Creed Humphrey and right guard Trey Smith, who have provided tremendous cap surplus over the first three seasons of their rookie deals, are entering the final years of those contracts. Smith’s future is murkier after a down season in 2023, but Humphrey will command a top-of-market contract as arguably the best center in the NFL.
Couple those circumstances with Kansas City’s one recent misstep - the contract handed out to right tackle Jawaan Taylor - and you can point to left tackle as a position the Chiefs could prioritize in the 1st Round of the 2024 NFL Draft. If Kansas City could hit on a blindside protector - and with a deep offensive tackle class, that’s a possibility - it opens up all sorts of possibilities moving forward. Taylor’s dead cap hit is manageable a year from now, but it would be tough to cut him if it means opening holes at both tackle positions; a rookie left tackle could allow them to cut Taylor and keep all three players on what would be the NFL’s most expensive interior (left guard Joe Thuney, Humphrey, Smith) together for one more season in 2025.
It’s an oddly specific scenario, but I lay it out to point to the long-term ramifications that the Chiefs are in a position to consider. Kansas City could have traded for a veteran receiver at the deadline this year, but they opted to play the long game, hoping that Rashee Rice would develop and opting not to drain resources from a future team to supplement the 2023 squad. That move - or lack of move - was an indication that Kansas City believes they can field a contender every year Mahomes is at the helm; they just need to trust the process and continue to adapt to the pieces available to them each offseason.
The 2024 NFL Draft
Offensive tackle isn’t the only position on Kansas City’s radar moving forward.
Linebacker Nick Bolton - whom Spagnaulo raved about as the leader of the defense during an appearance on The Pat McAfee Show - has one year left on his deal. Ditto for safety Justin Reid.
There are also decisions to make this year; in addition to Chris Jones and L’Jarius Sneed, linebackers Willie Gay and Drue Tranquill and safety Mike Edwards are headed for free agency, potentially taking a lot of experience out of the defense’s back end. They also need to continue to add playmakers on offense; Rashee Rice is a great start, but Travis Kelce isn’t getting any younger, and the 2024 NFL Draft should once again feature plenty of playmakers in the second and third rounds.
The biggest “if” in all of this surrounds Jones; Kansas City has indicated they plan to have the All-Pro lineman in the fold moving forward, but it would leave a massive hole in the defense if he left, particularly after fellow lineman Charles Omenihu tore his ACL in the AFC Championship Game. If something were to hold up the Jones negotiations, the Chiefs would need to prioritize the defensive line on draft night.
There is more of a contingency plan in place if Sneed walks; they have not played at Sneed’s elite standard, but Jaylen Watson and Joshua Williams have played plenty of snaps at outside cornerback over the past two seasons, and have shown that they can hold their own. Given the growth that Sneed showed over his rookie contract, the Chiefs may elect to roll with McDuffie, Watson, and Williams; after all, they’ve survived without Charvarius Ward, who has gone on to dominate on the outside for the 49ers after departing Kansas City in free agency two years ago.
Free Agency
There are several destinations where receiver Darnell Mooney would be an interesting fit, and Kansas City is up near the top of that list.
Mooney was an afterthought in Chicago’s offense after the Bears added D.J. Moore as their top option, but Mooney had posted three seasons of solid production before that and is a smooth, dynamic mover as a route-runner. He is not a lead receiver, but he has some juice down the field and could thrive as a complementary piece in the right system. There is some overlap with current Chiefs receiver Marques Valdez-Scantling in terms of providing a deep threat, but I would argue Mooney brings a more versatile game to the table. Mooney might not have the breakaway straight-line speed Valdez-Scantling possesses, but his change of direction is significantly better, opening up a wider variety of routes.
There’s no particular reason to think this would be a fit, but if Mooney is available on a low-cost, upside deal, it could wind up being beneficial to both sides.
Three-Peat
From where I’m sitting, Kansas City should enter 2024 as the Super Bowl Favorites. Some markets have the 49ers, but I think that is due to some misplaced uncertainty with Kansas City’s free-agent situation; I like both teams, but I think there is every chance the 2024 Chiefs could be the best vintage we’ve seen. If those odds reflect folks betting against the three-peat, I think that’s fair, but I’d be hard-pressed to say San Francisco will be the better team by the time we get to opening day.
The division should be tougher between Jim Harbaugh taking over the Chargers and Antonio Pierce leading the Raiders from start to finish, but winning the AFC West has never been an issue for Mahomes and company. In fact, winning itself has never been an issue for Mahomes; three of his six seasons as the starter have ended with a win, and only one of the three losses (Super Bowl to Tampa Bay) was decisive, with the AFC Championship losses to New England and Cincinnati coming in overtime.
To make it all worse (at least for the rest of the NFL), Mahomes is still getting better. His understanding of the game and his leadership continue to evolve, and his physical skills remain at their peak, allowing Kansas City to win no matter what type of roster they wind up with during a given season.
That last point might be the most important. A huge part of what made the Patriots so successful is that Coach Belichick and company were so adaptable to different personnel types; the offensive and defensive schemes were never static, and players were never pigeon-holed into roles they did not fit because “that’s what the system is.”
The Chiefs are in a similar place. They’ve gone from high-flying trick shots with Mahomes and Tyreek to a team that will dice you up out of tight-end heavy looks and hammer you in the run game. The defense has gone through different iterations, with Spagnaulo throwing out heavy doses of three-safety looks when Tyrann Mathieu was the dude, and transitioning seamlessly to heavier use of three-corner looks when McDuffie emerged in the slot.
It’s an organization that is, by all appearances, firing on all cylinders; short of insane changes to the 2030 collective bargaining agreement that specifically target the Chiefs and somehow prevent them from building a roster around Mahomes, it’s hard to imagine what’s going to slow them down while #15 is the quarterback.
Early 2024 Projection: 1st in AFC West