The 2023 NFL season had its ups and downs, but the Buffalo Bills finished it in a familiar position: a handful of plays short of a victory over the Kansas City Chiefs.
Ultimately, it’s the outcome that matters, but it would be stretching reality to suggest that this version of the Bills isn’t good enough to win the Super Bowl. Much like the 49ers, the Ravens, and the Eagles, what these Buffalo teams need is to catch a break against Patrick Mahomes and company. These squads are clearly capable of beating the Chiefs - the margins of victory are too close to suggest there wouldn’t be some variation in outcome if you played the games over ten times - but the more times Mahomes’s heroics show up in the final moments, the more hopeless everyone else’s situation seems to become.
The Bills are $50 million over the cap heading into 2024 (per Spotrac), but that number doesn’t tell the whole story; Buffalo can cut running back Nyheim Hines and cornerback Rasul Douglas for a combined savings of $14 million, and they could also look to extend left tackle Dion Dawkins, who is entering the final year of his deal, to lower his cap hit in 2024.
Buffalo is still working around the wreckage of the Von Miller contract, but on the whole, the group is in relatively solid shape. The Bills had some shaky draft classes in 2020 and 2021, but several members of the 2022 class broke out last season, and the top two selections in the 2023 class, tight end Dalton Kincaid and guard O’Cyrus Torrence, played significant roles during their rookie seasons. That said, there is likely to be a significant amount of turnover on this roster, particularly given the number of veterans set to hit free agency on the defensive side of the ball.
Reset on Defense
They had varying levels of impact, but when your list of free-agent defensive linemen who played at least 14% of last year’s snaps runs eight deep, and your team is over the cap, you can assume some changes are coming. That length of that list - which includes Leonard Floyd, DaQuan Jones, Jordan Phillips, AJ Epenesa, Shaq Lawson, Poona Ford, Tim Settle, and Linval Joseph - means that Buffalo will need to get creative to fill out the position room around Ed Oliver, Greg Rousseau, and Von Miller.
It’s not the only position group facing uncertainty. The back end could lose some familiar faces, as longtime safety Micah Hyde is a free agent, while his running mate, Jordan Poyer, could be cut for a savings of $5 million. The Bills could also consider cutting Tre’Davious White, who has two years left on his deal, but it would be more difficult to replace a cornerback than a safety.
The situation is further complicated by the fact that linebacker Matt Milano, who has three years left on his recent extension, will be coming off a serious knee injury in 2024. Terrel Bernard stepped up in his absence and is under contract for two more years, but if Milano can’t return to form, it will leave the Bills with one more veteran defender struggling to play to his contract because of injury.
Taken together, all of this puts a bright spotlight on how the Bills proceed with Miller. Assuming Miller’s ongoing legal situation does not void his deal, general manager Brandon Beane and head coach Sean McDermott would have to decide whether they want to bring back Miller at a cap hit of $23.7 million. The alternative is not appealing - Miller’s dead cap hit of $32.5 million would almost certainly need to be spread over two seasons - but Miller is coming off a season that saw him contribute 2 solo tackles and 1 assisted tackle in 12 games played. The film matches up with that; Miller is a First Ballot Hall of Famer, but he is also entering his age-35 season with a lengthy history of serious injuries, which makes it unlikely he is going to regain his freaky movement traits.
Buffalo is likely to spend the bulk of their draft capital on defense - there are far more question marks on this side than on offense - and depending on where they are at with Miller, they might decide it’s best to make a clean break of what has been a disappointing fit so far.
Adjustments on Offense
Stefon Diggs drama aside, the Bills appear likely to return the bulk of their offense in 2024. Center Mitch Morse is a potential cap casualty, but if Beane elects to keep him, Buffalo would bring back their entire offensive line. (Beane has decisions to make on Dawkins and right tackle Spencer Brown, who are both due a raise as they enter the final years of their respective deals, but the Bills may table those discussions until after they sort out the 2024 roster.)
The one piece who appears unlikely to return is wide receiver Gabriel Davis. Davis isn’t a number-one caliber receiver, which makes it unlikely that the Bills would use the franchise tag, and Davis is the type of player who will attract attention on the free-agent market; even with a deep pool of receivers in this year’s draft class, some team is going to gamble on Davis’s combination of size and proven NFL production.
The Bills have enough playmakers to move forward without him; running back James Cook and wide receiver Khalil Shakir both broke out in their second seasons, with Shakir posting an absurd 15.7 yards per reception on an 86.6% target conversion rate. (For context, that type of target conversion is typically associated with running backs who only catch checkdowns and screens, not a receiver averaging over 15 yards per catch). Add in tight end Dalton Kincaid, who converted 80% of his targets in his rookie season (albeit for a mere 9.2 yards per reception), and the Bills have a solid trio of playmakers on low-cost deals.
With Diggs and tight end Dawson Knox both playing on top-of-market contracts, the Bills aren’t likely to stretch themselves filling out the offense; they will need to add a third receiver if Davis walks, but would likely target a low-cost veteran or use a mid-round pick to address the position. The other question is what they will do at running back - Damien Harris and Latavius Murray are both free agents - and whether the Bills will look for another physical back (perhaps bringing back Murray), or try to find a backup with a style similar to Cook’s.
Whatever they do, this offense should continue to be a force in 2024; Josh Allen has his share of regrettable decisions, but there’s no questioning his talent. Expect the Bills to be right back in the mix next season, assuming they can transition the roster on defense.
They’ll Be Back
Von Miller’s free agent deal was a significant departure from how the Bills had operated under Brandon Beane, but ultimately, it’s one regrettable move, not a way of doing business. The deal happened to come on the back of two draft classes that yielded three underwhelming players at the position (A.J. Epenesa, Greg Rousseau, Boogie Basham), but it’s probably best for the Bills to separate that rotten draft luck from the Miller deal as they chart their course moving forward.
All things considered, Beane and McDermott have done a terrific job consistently fielding a competitive team over their tenure. It’s hard to say whether they will be better next season - a significant cast change on defense could go either way - but it’s also fair to question if they need to be.
Obviously, any team would be in a better spot to win with a better roster, but given the percentage of the salary cap that is allocated to Josh Allen, I think the Bills could do themselves more harm than good if they convince themselves that they need to significantly improve this roster. There are going to be tweaks - teams are always evolving - but Buffalo is well-positioned to continue their recent dominance in the AFC East, particularly given how their cap situation looks relative to the Dolphins.
Kansas City still looms large, but given how these games have played out, I’d be angling to have a shot every year for the next ten years, rather than trying to guess which season is the “right one” to load up and crossing my fingers that injury luck holds up in that particular year.
As to whether the Chiefs can be killed with Tom Brady out of the picture? Joe Burrow and the Bengals did get Mahomes once…but I suppose only time will tell.
Early 2024 Projection: 1st in AFC East