Decision Time: Can Tua Tagovailoa Carry the Dolphins when the Roster Dust Settles?
NFL Offseason Roster Review #21
The surface-level question about the Miami Dolphins is whether or not they will sign Tua Tagovailoa as their long-term quarterback.
As important as the quarterback position is, that’s a secondary concern.
The Dolphins are currently $50 million over the cap for 2024 (per Spotrac), have $200 million committed to the 2025 cap, and don’t have a contract for a foundational player, defensive tackle Christian Wilkins.
This is the exact problem with the “all-in” rookie contract approach; while general manager Chris Grier assembled a huge amount of talent by acquiring players like receiver Tyreek Hill, edge rusher Bradley Chubb, and cornerback Jalen Ramsey, this team’s roster structure is trending toward bankruptcy from a “surplus cap value” standpoint.
Other teams that have had to figure out a big-time quarterback contract had room to fit the quarterback in their structure, but the Fins are suddenly in a spot where they have to make a decision on their quarterback as they aggressively cut talent from the roster.
Whether they follow the Chiefs model and flip some of these expensive vets for future picks, or outright cut players, the Dolphins have to figure something out. All three of their interior linemen (left guard Isaiah Wynn, center Connor Williams, and right guard Robert Hunt) are set to hit unrestricted free agency along with Wilkins, and they need to leave room for Jaylen Waddle’s contract on top of Tagovailoa’s deal.
You might say that Grier made this bed and now he’s got to sleep in it; I’d say that’s a bad analogy and say that Grier started this fire and better put it out before it’s too late. Miami needs to move aggressively to flip this situation, or the roster around Tagovailoa is going to be severely talent-depleted if he gets to a big-time deal.
Desperate for Draft Help
Between their owner meddling with Tom Brady and the trades Grier made for veterans, the Dolphins only wound up selecting 8 players between the 2022 and 2023 drafts, and while running back Devone Achane was a hit, he’s the only one of the eight players from these two draft classes to make an impact.
As a result, the Dolphins are generating close to no cap surplus from their Year 2 and Year 3 players, which is the underlying reason for their salary cap woes. It’s next to impossible to win in today’s NFL without generating a significant amount of surplus cap value, and with Miami’s 2021 class (receiver Jaylen Waddle, edge rusher Jaelen Phillips, safety Jevon Holland, guard Liam Eichenburg) entering their fourth season in the league, the Dolphins need to make their next two draft classes count.
The positive is that Miami has almost all of their picks in those drafts (they are short a 4th-rounder this year), which creates the possibility of flipping their cap situation on its head the way New Orleans’s 2017 draft class bailed out their cap situation. But even if that happens, there are some tough decisions ahead.
How Will Miami Move Forward?
Despite the season-ending injuries suffered by edge rushers Jaelen Phillips and Bradley Chubb in 2023, Emmanuel Ogbah’s name is likely the first one on the chopping block. Ogbah, who is scheduled for a cap hit of $17 million this season, can be cut with a dead cap hit of $4 million, clearing out $13 million in 2024 and nearly $19 million in 2025.
That move seems like a foregone conclusion, but there aren’t many obvious moves besides that. They could create some cap savings by cutting left tackle Terron Armstead, but then they would need to fill four spots on the offensive line instead of three. Off-ball linebacker Jerome Baker could also be cut for savings, but again, that leaves Miami with one less quality player, and based on the way the season ended, the Dolphins need MORE talent, not less.
It’s an unfortunate situation; head coach Mike McDaniel has made the Dolphins unbelievably fun to watch on offense on top of pushing many offenses in the league forward by introducing his innovative ideas. McDaniel’s stuff is consistently must-watch, and you see copy-cat syndrome at its finest as offensive coordinators spend late September and early October trying to incorporate the newest ideas Miami’s coach has brought to the table.
Roster-building is a collaborative effort, but as it stands, it’s difficult to speak of Grier in the same sense. His quarterback does certain things exceptionally well, but Tagovailoa needs pieces around him; I’m not against building around a quarterback and two receivers, as I noted in my Bengals preview, but the roster around that needs to be constructed to account for trade-offs, and Miami’s roster could not be further from that situation in terms of their three-year outlook.
Early 2024 Projection: 2nd in AFC East (Thought they would be neck and neck with Buffalo again, but this is a lot to work around)