The Magic Flacco Ride is Over; Deshaun Watson and the Browns in 2024
NFL Offseason Roster Review #23
$63,997,000.
That is Deshaun Watson’s cap hit in each of the next three years. There is no getting out of this; if the Browns were to cut him, $200 million in dead cap space would drop into their 2024 salary cap, which is a non-starter on a roster with so many other significant contracts.
And there’s the rub; general manager Andrew Berry has assembled one heck of a roster around his “franchise” quarterback. The addition of Jim Schwartz at defensive coordinator unlocked a unit that features two of the NFL’s premier building blocks on that side of the ball: defensive end Myles Garrett and cornerback Denzel Ward. On offense, the Browns have SIX starting caliber linemen under contract for 2024, along with a skill player list headlined by the trio of running back Nick Chubb, receiver Amari Cooper, and tight end David Njoku; Chubb’s injury aside, that’s an impressive group of playmakers to build your offense around.
In other words, this team is ready to win NOW, and they are firmly locked into this version of what they are; Cleveland is $20 million over the 2024 cap at $282 million, but it’s the figures of $288 and $231 million committed to 2025 and 2026 that are truly alarming. (all contract numbers per Spotrac).
None of this would be a problem if Deshaun Watson was playing to the standard that led the Browns to unload a boatload of draft picks before signing him to this contract, but he hasn’t been anything close to that, and the rust excuse has gotten really old. Plenty of high-end quarterbacks have quickly returned to form after missing close to a full season due to injury, which makes it seem far-fetched that the season and a half Watson missed - without injury - fully explains his dramatic drop-off in play.
When the Browns acquired Watson, they probably thought they could re-do his deal to drop this year’s cap hit - Watson is currently 28, so they probably expected to have him for another decade - but that is looking like an extremely questionable option at this point. There was a glimmer of hope here and there, but Watson was mostly terrible in 2023; ESPN’s QBR metric is not everything, but the fact that Watson would have finished just ahead of Washington’s Sam Howell, a former 5th-rounder making roughly $1 million per year, speaks to the problem Cleveland is facing.
The Browns are arguably $55 million underwater on Watson’s 2024 contract; it’s possible he returns to the standard that got him that deal, but without that outcome in hand, will owner Jimmy Haslam give his ok on an extension that would free Andrew Berry’s hands in the upcoming offseason?
Cut Candidates
Given how many draft picks the Browns traded to acquire Watson, the emergence of Dawand Jones at right tackle should have been a godsend from a surplus cap value standpoint.
Unfortunately, the reason that Jones emerged at right tackle is because Jack Conklin tore his ACL; with three years left on his deal, Conklin, who is slated for a cap hit of $12 million in 2024, would account for a dead cap hit of $22 million is he is cut outright. The Browns can shift the bulk of that onto the 2025 cap if they designate him as a post-June 1st release, but regardless, Conklin’s dead value eats up a considerable chunk of the surplus value Cleveland would have realized on Jones’s deal in Years 2 and 3.
As far as more cap-friendly cup candidates go, Browns fans may be dismayed to learn that the team could save $11 million on running back Nick Chubb’s scheduled cap hit of $15.8 million; Chubb, who has arguably been the NFL’s best pure ball-carrier over the past half-decade, would be difficult to replace, but the other player that offers an 8-figure savings is receiver Amari Cooper. You might debate which player is more impactful if both are healthy, but with Chubb coming off a nasty knee injury, I’d be hard-pressed not to lean toward Cooper.
The good thing is that the Browns have very few needs, but if they want to keep Chubb and Cooper both in the fold, they will either have to push out more contracts on the roster or extend their agreement with Watson.
The 2024 NFL Draft
In a perfect world (given the preconditions I’ve laid out, which are somewhat less than perfect…), the Browns would use their pick in the back half of the first round to (1) select a receiver who allows them to replace Cooper or (2) add a pass-rusher who can step in for Za’Darius Smith, who is slated for free agency after a productive campaign.
Unfortunately, the Browns do not have their first-round pick - they traded it for Watson - and they are also missing a fourth-rounder, which, longshot or not, is where they landed Dawand Jones last season.
That leaves Cleveland with two picks in the first four rounds, and for the sake of their 2025 and 2026 rosters, Andrew Berry could really use hits with the 54th and 85th overall selections.
Berry doesn’t have a first-rounder to spend at receiver, but with a deep pool of talent at the position and Elijah Moore coming up on the final year of his deal along with Cooper, it would not surprise to see the Browns add a receiver in the second round. Cedric Tillman offered some promising moments as a rookie, but they will need reinforcements even if he continues to develop.
All Dressed Up and Nowhere To Go?
At the end of the day, it’s a strange exercise writing about the Browns. This team is locked and loaded, and while they are a bit over the cap, it’s a very manageable situation for 2024, particularly when the roster has so much elite talent on it. Even without Za’Darius Smith, they have three impact players on their defensive line, and they are bringing back both safeties and all three cornerbacks from a talented secondary, while the offense features as good a mix of talent across the offensive line and skill positions as you will find in the NFL.
The problem is that this roster should be competing for the Super Bowl, and they weren’t anything close to a contender with Watson at the helm. The quarterback could change the narrative come September, but coming up with reasons that he would return to form has become as difficult as trying to explain where his game went in the first place. Nobody was questioning whether any “system” fit Watson after his first two years in the league; his accuracy and processing allowed him to execute from the pocket, and he added a dynamic element to the game with his legs and natural evasiveness. From a pure skill set perspective, it wasn’t crazy to think that Watson’s progression would be similar to what we have seen from Patrick Mahomes, who has seasoned all the traits listed for Watson with an enhanced level of patience and control from the pocket.
Of course, life didn’t turn out that way, and whether it was crazy or not to think that at the time is irrelevant now; Watson isn’t anything close to that player, and it’s a bummer for Browns fans who should be excited about their roster, but instead have to wait and see how many more years of this they are signed up for.
Early 2024 Projection: 4th in AFC North (If this doesn’t go well with Watson, I don’t see another Flacco season; I see frustrations boiling over)