The BRAND. NEW. Lions got their hearts ripped out in the NFC Championship Game, giving up a 24-7 halftime lead to the San Francisco 49ers, but as brutal as the loss was, the Lions don’t look like they’re going anywhere anytime soon. In fact, this team, buoyed by an outstanding 2023 draft class, is set to push it to the next level in 2024.
With an estimated $48 million in cap space (per Spotrac) and an extra 3rd round pick, Detroit heads into the offseason with plenty of options. Some of that money will go to re-signing or extending in-house players, but the Lions don’t have significant money tied up beyond 2024, so they have the flexibility to be active on the free-agent market without compromising their ability to retain their own players.
As for their own players, Detroit has some huge contracts coming down the pipe, but they are spaced out nicely. The immediate concern is standout guard Jonah Jackson, who is an unrestricted free agent. Quarterback Jared Goff, left tackle Taylor Decker, and defensive tackle Alim McNeil, all likely priorities, are signed through 2025, while right tackle Penei Sewell and defensive end Aidan Hutchinson’s fifth-year options are scheduled for 2026 and 2027, respectively.
Put it all together, and Detroit doesn’t have to choose between keeping their core together and adding help in the short term; they can do both.
Jared Goff and Jonah Jackson: A Package Deal?
It’s an over-exaggeration to suggest these two players are tied at the hip, but Detroit needs to continue investing in the offensive line if they are going to extend Goff.
Goff is an improved player from his days in Los Angeles, but his ability to extend plays and make off-platform throws is limited relative to some of the more dynamic quarterbacks in the NFL. That doesn’t mean Goff isn’t a quality player, but as Hall of Fame quarterback Kurt Warner discussed on The Pat McAfee Show during Super Bowl week, pocket quarterbacks need certain pieces around them. It’s not a knock on pocket quarterbacks, per se; it’s being realistic about your strengths and weaknesses, and understanding that you need to take a different approach if you can’t consistently make defenders miss and run for twenty on your own.
For Goff, the interior line is a key part of that equation; many of his struggles have come when his protection gets walked back into his face. Center Frank Ragnow plays a significant role on that front, and is under contract for three more seasons, but Jackson, who has developed into a standout at left guard, is slated for free agency along with Halapoulivaati Vaitai and Graham Glasgow, who split right guard duties last season.
Given their available cap space, re-signing Jackson would seem like a no-brainer, but there is a roster-building question to consider; if the Lions bring back Jackson, they would be committing to four expensive pieces on the line once Sewell transitions to his fifth-year option in 2025. That could mean that by the time Sewell graduates to his top-of-market contract in 2026, the Lions are allocating somewhere in the neighborhood of $80 million to the offensive line that season; throw in Goff’s projected deal, and you have $120 million or so allocated to five players.
Fortunately for Lions fans, Detroit is in a position to make this work; between the 2023 draft class and projected salary cap increases, this roster is flexible enough to work around those numbers.
Surplus Cap Value Galore
There are legitimate debates to be had about trading up in the draft or spending first-round picks at non-premium positions, but it is also important to consider the context of the moves; similar to Houston trading up for Will Anderson after two years of sitting on the roster-building sidelines, Detroit picked a running back and off-ball linebacker after selecting an offensive tackle, defensive end, and wide receiver with their previous three first-rounders. And regardless of what the expected value is for those moves a priori, Jahmyr Gibbs (RB) and Jack Campbell (LB) wound up on the positive end of the outcome distribution in Year One.
It’s hardly a fluke; the Lions have been on a draft heater since Brad Holmes and Dan Campbell took over as general manager and head coach in 2021. They have made five first-round picks since then: Sewell (2021, 7th), Hutchinson (2022, 2nd), receiver Jameson Williams (2022, 12th), Gibbs (2023, 12th), and Campbell (2023, 18th). Williams, who was coming off a torn ACL in the college football National Championship, took a bit longer to develop, but as it stands, the Lions have hit on all five players, with three of them (Sewell, Hutchinson, Gibbs) slated to push for All-Pro honors in the years to come.
Nor has this success been limited to the first round. In 2021, the Lions got defensive tackle Alim McNeil, defensive back Ifeatu Melifonwu, and Amon-Ra St. Brown in the middle rounds. In 2022, they selected safety Kerby Joseph in the third round, and in 2023, they hit on tight end Sam LaPorta and slot Brian Branch in the second.
It’s left Detroit with a deep, talented roster. The NFL is a crazy league, but given the makeup of Detroit’s current squad, it’s hard to imagine how Detroit wouldn’t field a contender in 2024.
Areas of Improvement
The Lions could target an outside receiver, but given the trajectory Jameson Williams appears to be on, they might elect to focus on adding some juice to the defense.
To that end, they could use a blue-chip corner or more depth at pass rusher, which probably makes it more likely that they add a corner in the draft and tap into the pass rusher pool in free agency.
Unless Kansas City’s L’Jarius Sneed or Chicago’s Jaylon Johnson gets to the open market - which seems unlikely - the Lions would be looking at cornerbacks with profiles that are closer to current starter Cam Sutton, who they signed in free agency last season. It wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world, but pairing Sutton with a Kendall Fuller or Chidobe Awuzie would create a “solid, not great” dynamic at that position.
Instead, the Lions could look to add to the pass rush in free agency, where there is a longer list of names that could wind up on the market, including edge rushers Danielle Hunter and Brian Burns, or defensive tackles Justin Madubuike and Christian Wilkins. There are also options if Detroit elects not to go the blue-chip route; Jadeveon Clowney, Za’Darius Smith, and Leonard Floyd could all add some juice to this rush, and due to the rotation-heavy nature of the defensive line, they would not block a younger player’s ascension the same way that a solid outside corner might.
If Detroit could hit on a cornerback with the 29th pick - and Daniel Jeremiah’s initial Top 50 has six cornerbacks (Quinyon Mitchell, Toledo; Ennis Rakestraw Jr., Missouri; Cooper DeJean, Iowa; Nate Wiggins, Clemson; Kool-Aid McKinstry, Alabama) between the 19th and 36th spots - before adding to the pass rush with the three picks they have in the second and third rounds, the Lions could push to be the NFC favorite heading into 2024.
The Best Is Yet to Come?
From a roster structure standpoint, there’s every reason to think so.
Detroit won a lot of football games in 2023 with an exceptionally young roster. The majority of their contributors are on their rookie contracts, and veterans such as Goff, running back David Montgomery, and linebacker Alex Anzalone are playing on mid-tier deals rather than pushing the top of the market. Goff’s deal is up after this season, but assuming he is willing to play somewhere in the $40 million range rather than at the top of the market, Detroit should be able to keep rolling at the quarterback position.
Ideally, the Lions will continue to dominate the draft, though if NFL history is any indicator, they are likely to miss on some picks sooner than later. That said, Detroit has a culture that is clearly getting the most out of the majority of its players, and there’s a real possibility that Brad Holmes stays hot for his next few picks.
The great thing is that, even if Holmes goes bust for a year, the Lions should still be right in the thick of things.
Early 2024 Projection: 2nd in NFC North (wish I’d saved the “1” spot until after I realized how good of shape Detroit is in…Green Bay is on solid ground as well, but the Lions are loaded…should be a heckuva battle in the North)