Fresh off an NFC South title and a playoff victory over the Los Angeles Rams, general manager Jason Licht and head coach Todd Bowles could very well run things back with Baker Mayfield at quarterback.
But will they? With $43 million in cap space - which will become $53 million when they release little-used receiver Russell Gage - the Bucs have money to spend, but they also have a long list of pending free agents and could go in a different direction if that’s their preference. Last year’s results were solid, but with Mayfield, wide receiver Mike Evans, safety Antoine Winfield, and the linebacker tandem of Lavonte David and Devin White all slated for free agency, Tampa Bay is in a position where they could elect to pivot away from the last remnants of the Tom Brady era and roll out a much different team for 2024.
Certain pieces are fixed in place - the offensive line, which is set to return four of five starters, will be familiar - but the Bucs aren’t committed to much beyond that. Receiver Chris Godwin, edge rusher Shaq Barrett, and cornerback Carlton Davis are all in the fold for 2024, but their deals expire after this season, and they may not be in the long-term plans.
That said, if the Buccaneers decide to let some or all of these players walk in free agency, which direction will they take? This does not seem like an organization to go the full tank route, so we will dismiss that possibility; with that assumption in hand, let’s explore Tampa Bay’s options.
The Quarterback
Baker Mayfield is a capable NFL starter, but outside of his family members, nobody is comparing him to draft classmates Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson. If the Buccaneers decide they want a quarterback who could bring a more dynamic element, there are a couple directions they could go.
While Tampa Bay would neat to trade a boatload of picks to move from the 26th selection up to the 1st overall pick, they could be in the trade market for Justin Fields if Chicago elects to deal Fields and go with a rookie. It’s been an up-and-down three years for Fields, but the same could have been said of Allen, Jackson, or Jalen Hurts early in their respective careers, and that seems to have worked out all given the benefit of time.
The Bucs could also look to target a quarterback in the draft’s second group of quarterbacks: J.J. McCarthy (Michigan), Michael Penix Jr. (Washington), and Bo Nix (Oregon). If they go that route, it seems more likely that Tampa Bay would target either McCarthy or Penix Jr.; McCarthy, who brings some dual-threat ability, and Penix Jr., who has drawn some rave reviews for his downfield passing, both seem to bring more of the “wow” factor the team would be looking for if they are moving on from Mayfield. The Bucs may see it differently, but early draft reports suggest that Nix has similar physical traits to Mayfield, and if that is the case, it might make more sense to stick with the status quo.
Free agency is another avenue, but one with limited options. In the event that Kirk Cousins hits the market, Tampa could target him as an upgrade, but it’s debatable whether they would get a better return on their money for Mayfield. Perhaps Mayfield’s market blows up after this season, but if Tampa Bay can keep him at 60 or 70% of the price Cousins fetches, there’s a fair argument that Mayfield is the better value. That is particularly relevant for Tampa Bay, because the Buccaneers are facing some hard decisions with their free agency class.
The End of Era?
Mike Evans, Lavonte David, Devin White, and Antoine Winfield are four of the most recognizable names from Tampa Bay’s championship roster, but it would be something of a surprise if all four are back on the roster in 2024.
Evans and Winfield will likely be the priorities - Evans continued to add to his Hall of Fame resume with a 1200-yard, 13-touchdown campaign in 2023, while Winfield is coming off a 1st Team All-Pro nod as his rookie deal expires - which could mean the dynamic linebacker tandem of David and White have played their last downs in Tampa.
Ultimately, it’s all speculation. The Buccaneers are coming off two straight quality drafts; the 2023 class featured defensive tackle Calijah Kancey, right guard Cody Mauch, and edge rusher YaYa Diaby, and the 2022 group of right tackle Luke Goedeke, running back Rachaad White, tight end Cade Otten, and cornerback Zyon McCollum all made an impact last season. They don’t have any “premium” surplus value contracts, but there is enough here to keep the veterans in place if they want to continue competing with this version of the roster.
With the Saints heading the wrong way fast and the Panthers in dire straits, the NFC South is there for the taking if the Bucs keep this group together, but can they get over the top and win a Super Bowl? My guess is no, but crazier things have happened, and there’s also the scenario where Tampa Bay drafts a quarterback from that second group to come in and sit behind Mayfield for a season.
It’s about as wide a range of roster possibilities as any team in the NFL; it may not have seemed like it during the season, but as we approach free agency, this Tampa Bay team is likely to generate as much discussion as anyone due to the sheer volume of possibilities.
Or they could get deals done with key players ahead of free agency, and make all of this a moot point; time will tell.
Early 2024 Projection: 2nd in NFC South