Energy Surge: Will the Chargers Up the Voltage Under Jim Harbaugh?
NFL Offseason Roster Review #5
It is difficult to overstate the magnitude of the victory the Chargers appear to have achieved with the Jim Harbaugh hire.
The football world is a drama as much as a sport, and in that drama, some of the narratives around Harbaugh get in the way of his track record. Whether or not everyone loves his approach, this is a man who has had success every step of the way despite taking on remarkable challenges.
After starting his head coaching career at San Diego State, Harbaugh took over a Stanford program that had long served as a Pac-12 doormat and pushed them into national prominence; Andrew Luck certainly played a role, but he’s not the only future NFL player Harbaugh developed in a program that outlasted him under Harbaugh’s former assistant, David Shaw.
While Shaw continued to win at Stanford, Harbaugh took over the 49ers, and while Sean McVay’s transformation of Jared Goff has since overshadowed Harbaugh’s work with Alex Smith back in 2011 as the 49ers went 13-3 in Harbaugh’s first season, we shouldn’t forget how the trajectory of Smith’s career changed upon Harbaugh’s arrival.
Wins aren’t everything, but they’re fairly important, and Smith, who had posted four losing seasons and one 5-5 campaign before he played for Harbaugh, proceeded to post a winning record every season between 2011 and 2017. Granted, many of those winning seasons would come in Kansas City after Colin Kaepernick emerged in Year Two of the Harbaugh regime, but few people would have imagined Smith going on to have that success before he met Harbaugh, and the results Harbaugh got with Kaepernick, a second-round pick who brought a different element to the offense, only bolsters those credentials.
The 49ers fell short to the Ravens in their shot at the Lombardi, but now, fresh off a resurrection of his alma mater that saw Michigan post three straight wins over Ohio State before taking home the National Championship, Harbaugh is back in the NFL, and this time, he’s got a quarterback who can do anything.
Justin Herbert: The Second Act
Whatever your opinion is on Alex Smith and Colin Kaepernick, it’s difficult to argue either was a generational talent; Smith had good, not great tools, and while Kaepernick brought next-level athleticism, he was not Peyton Manning from the pocket.
Herbert, on the other hand, is the prototype. Similar to Buffalo’s Josh Allen, Herbert is a massive man with high-end mobility and next-level arm strength who processes the game well and is more than happy to rip in high-difficulty throws.
None of that has translated to organizational success, which is shocking to most folks who saw the way Herbert played from the drop in Week 2 of his rookie season, when he was thrust into the starting lineup after a team doctor punctured Tyrod Taylor’s lung before the game. It is exceptionally rare - damn near unique - for a rookie to play at a high level without even a half, or full game, to adjust to NFL speed; Herbert was balling from his first drive.
There are a lot of reasons the Chargers haven’t racked up the wins in the years since - football is a team game - but on top of a former NFL quarterback, Herbert is getting a gritty, competitive team builder at head coach, which is far more important than getting a play-caller. Harbaugh’s teams have always made physicality their calling card, a trait that the Chargers have sorely lacked in Herbert’s tenure, and that could be exactly what Los Angeles needs to challenge Kansas City’s dynasty in the years to come.
Herbert feels like a bit of an afterthought at the moment; between the team’s struggles, his season-ending injury, and the outstanding play of other quarterbacks in the NFL playoffs, perhaps that isn’t a surprise, but his presence makes the notion that the Chargers are years away from contention a little ridiculous. Nothing turns over faster than an NFL roster; the Chargers need to pivot, but the roster cupboard is not bare.
Brock Bowers: Future Charger?
Georgia tight end Brock Bowers missed a portion of this season with an ankle injury, but the playmaking tight end has drawn rave reviews dating back to his freshman season.
A lot will be made of whether a tight end should be taken in the Top 10 - particularly in light of the Kyle Pitts saga - but there are a lot of ways to look at that debate. Some highly drafted tight ends have not worked out as planned, but if Bowers is a Top 10 talent as a playmaker rather than a two-way tight end, it shifts the discussion.
That might sound like a ridiculous statement given the Pitts dilemma, but I’d argue that’s a difficult case to draw sweeping conclusions from; for one, Pitts, who is more wide receiver than tight end, certainly has the movement skills advertised in his pre-draft profile, even if the production hasn’t matched it.
Pitts has been stuck in an Atlanta offense that has consistently struggled to do much of anything, but he did manage to go over 1,000 receiving yards as a rookie before struggling with injuries in his second season and competing for targets with two other Top 10 picks in Year 3. He also hasn’t gotten in the endzone much, but neither have the Falcons; I could well be wrong, but I still think Pitts could provide the sort of impact that Darren Waller provided for the Raiders at his peak in the right situation; there are too many flashes where he looks like an impact player on NFL film to give up hope.
In Daniel Jeremiah’s initial scouting report on Bowers, he consistently harps on the tight end’s play speed and overall competitiveness, noting that he can contribute on everything from jet sweeps to deep corners. Given how effective Harbaugh’s 49ers were at using Vernon Davis - another Top 10 pick at tight end - as a vertical threat out of heavy sets, I’d encourage Chargers fans not to sweat some of the details of the small sample size of Top 10 picks at tight end; Bowers could be the perfect weapon to bring some juice to this offense.
Salary Cap Issues
As good as Khalil Mack was in 2023, the salary cap situation in Los Angeles is precisely why I don’t love teams with “their guy” at quarterback trading draft picks for veterans; rather than taking a swing at a player who could provide future cap surplus with their 2nd round pick and spending cash on a free-agent pass rusher, the Chargers opted for certainty, and traded a lottery ticket for Mack and his top-of-market contract.
That was all well and good for the short term, but given that Herbert appeared set to play for the Chargers well beyond 2024, it may not have been the optimal strategy. Teams trying to load up for short-term “Super Bowl” windows are discounting how many things need to go right in a single season; with a long-term stud at quarterback, it seems to make more sense to play the long game and give yourself as many swings as possible in an AFC field that includes Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, and a rising C.J. Stroud.
Playing the short game went so well that the previous decision-makers are out of a job, so now Harbaugh steps into this position without the benefit of Herbert’s rookie contract, but my bet is the veteran coach can overcome that. The difference in roster talent from the top team in the NFL to the bottom is always smaller than we think - see this year’s Houston Texans - and with a dude like Herbert at quarterback, the Chargers should be a competitor year in and year out. Throw in the fact that Harbaugh could up the team’s surplus cap returns by getting more out of former first-rounders Zion Johnson (LG) and Quentin Johnston (WR) and a rebound year from left tackle Rashawn Slater, and the “surplus value” side of the ledger could look much better by mid-season.
As it stands, the Chargers have cap hits of $30 million plus on the books for receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams and edge rushers Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack, while center Corey Linsley and safety Derwin James are also on the books for eight-digit figures. That will have to change, but it means that understanding how the Chargers currently sit $44 million over the cap requires some nuance; throw in the fact that a player like Eric Kendricks, who is not the dominant player he once was in Minnesota, could be cut for $7 million in savings, and Los Angeles is in better shape than you’d think, even if the situation is not ideal.
The Chargers need a reset, but there’s enough on this roster to compete with a quarterback like Herbert. They will need to change out some of their veterans for younger pieces in the near future, but expect Los Angeles to be competitive as Harbaugh navigates the roster through that change and into their next evolution.
Early 2024 Projection: 2nd in AFC West