Widely anticipated as it was, the timeline after Bill Belichick’s departure from New England became one more reminder of how quickly things change in the NFL. With Jerod Mayo waiting in the wings, one of the first pieces of news to drop after Belichick’s exit was that New England’s co-defensive coordinator (and former linebacker) would take over as head coach. And just like that, the most successful NFL coach of this century was out, and the organization, which is picking in the top 5 for the first time since 1994, is set to kick off a new era.
It’s a different sort of draft season for New England fans; not only do the Patriots have their highest pick since 2008 (when they selected a linebacker named Jerod Mayo out of Tennessee with the 10th pick), they are picking in the Top 3 in a season where former personnel executives in the media are banging the table for three quarterbacks: USC’s Caleb Williams, UNC’s Drake Maye, and LSU’s Jayden Daniels. And there’s an added twist to all of this; because of the scouting calendar, indications are that the Patriots will not name a new general manager until after the draft. The thought behind this plan is that the scouting staff has been working toward the draft all season, and it is a difficult time to shift gears, but that only holds up if Mayo is going to set the vision before and after the 2024 NFL draft.
In other organizations, this might be a concern, but the Krafts are regarded as a relatively steady ownership group, so it’s probably fair to assume that tabling the GM discussion until after the NFL Draft is an indication that football decisions in New England will still run through the head coach, even if that head coach is more willing to assign other people titles like “offensive coordinator”, “defensive coordinator”, and, presumably, “general manager”.
Of course, it is the NFL, so we shouldn’t rule out some sort of chaos; bold a strategy as it was, there was a time when the Jets allowed GM Mike Maccagnan to go on a free-agency spending spree (one that included running back Le’Veon Bell), then fired him directly after the draft and turned over interim duties to new head coach Adam Gase (who had been against the decision to sign Bell).
It’s a reminder that “who is in charge” might not always be as clear as it seems, but for the sake of New England fans, we’ll proceed with the assumption the organization is moving out of the Belichick era with some semblance of a coherent plan; in short, let’s assume that Coach Mayo is the one setting the vision.
How Quickly Can This Roster Turn?
Let’s take it for granted that the Patriots will get one of the top 3 quarterbacks. What sort of roster can New England put around that player?
One benefit of keeping Mayo in place - assuming he doesn’t want to make wholesale changes to the defense he has had a hand in coordinating - is that the Patriots don’t have to change out the defensive personnel to fit a new identity. It probably would have been a mistake to make Mayo the head coach solely for that reason - my guess is that decision was made with the big picture in mind - but it does allow them to pivot more easily because only one side of the ball needs to be revamped.
That makes a one-year course correction far more reasonable; New England needs a refresh along the offensive line and an injection of speed at their skill positions, but with roughly $70 million in cap space and a full slate of draft picks, the Patriots have the resources to pivot on offense, which brings us to an interesting question. With last year’s offensive coordinator, Bill O’Brien, off to Ohio State, where will Mayo go at offensive coordinator? Mayo could go with Matt Patricia, who is no longer with the Eagles after a brief stay in Philadelphia, or Josh McDaniels, who is arguably coming off his most successful stint as an NFL head coach, but something tells me Patriots fans might be more than a little upset about that.
In many ways, the hire at offensive coordinator will be more telling than the draft pick at quarterback; barring a trade up, New England may need to be flexible in developing a scheme fit for the player that is available when they pick at number three. The same applies to free agency; as the Patriots don’t have the first overall pick, they need to create a plan that is adaptable enough to work to play to the strengths of whoever winds up under center in 2024.
Can They Get the Quarterback Some Help?
Regardless of who is designing the offensive plays, the Patriots need to add juice on the outside; unlike the Chicago Bears and Washington Commanders, who have stud receivers in place with D.J. Moore and Terry McLaurin, New England does not have a big-time playmaker to help bring their young quarterback along.
Will the Patriots be able to fix that? If Tee Higgins, Mike Evans, or another top receiver were to actually hit free agency, New England would be an obvious candidate to make an offer, but so would half the teams in the NFL, and it’s a longshot that any of the top-end difference makers hits the market in any case.
Given what Carolina went through this season, the Patriots may look to take multiple swings at the receiver position in the upcoming draft. Last year’s class was a reminder that you don’t have to pick early to find an impact receiver; Jayden Reed (50th, GB), Rashee Rice (55th, KC), Tank Dell (69th, HOU), and Josh Downs (79th, IND) all made big-time impacts for their squads this season, while Marvin Mims (63rd, DEN), Jalin Hyatt (73rd, NYG), Cedric Tillman (74th, CLE), and Michael Wilson (94th, ARI) had flashes that suggested they could make a bigger impact in years to come.
New England will also need to protect their quarterback; given some of the questions they have on the offensive line with the versatile Michael Onwenu in the fold, it would not be a surprise to see the Patriots sign Onwenu to a significant contract extension before he hits free agency. Onwenu is arguably the top player on the market, so the days of him providing significant cap surplus on a sixth-round rookie deal are over, but New England will be looking to get that surplus from the quarterback position moving forward, and Onwenu can help make sure that plan comes to fruition.
The defense has two big-name free agents in edge rusher Josh Uche and safety Kyle Dugger - and the team has the cap space to keep all three players - but even with a defensive head coach in place, it would not surprise me to see the Patriots prioritize Onwenu. After all, anyone who was a part of the Patriots dynasty understands how important it is to get the quarterback position right.
One Year to Test the Concept, Two to Hit Go?
That’s the general idea.
Before the 2023 NFL season, we could point to the Panthers, Texans, Colts, and Packers as teams who were going to get an answer on an unknown, highly-touted quarterback.
Of those four, two hit paydirt, one got an incomplete, and one bombed out.
Whoever the Patriots draft, New England will be in a similar position, and as we saw in 2023, picking 3rd might not be a disadvantage. For as much hype as USC’s Caleb Williams and UNC’s Drake Maye garnered from start to finish this season, none of these guys is going to be dropped into a perfect situation, and that could mean that LSU’s Jayden Daniels is the best bet. This year’s Heisman Trophy winner is a high-end athlete - a departure from the Mac Jones/Bailey Zappe tandem, who the Patriots continue to insist are two different people - and on top of that, he’s had time to rack up football and life experiences at the collegiate level, playing under Herm Edwards at Arizona State before transferring to LSU, where his game took off this season.
Regardless of who they pick, New England has the resources to put a functional roster around their quarterback. There is a gap between that and fielding a Super Bowl contender, but that’s a concern for down the road; if New England has the right guy at head coach, and gets their guy at quarterback, they are well-positioned to gear things up for 2025. If not…well, you can look at the quandary the Panthers find themselves in to see what happens to NFL teams not coached by Kyle Shannahan who miss on quarterbacks at the top of the draft.
The AFC East will be tough in 2024, but odds are that at least one of the three more established teams blows a tire again. We will know the least about New England heading into the 2024 season, and the other three AFC East teams should look pretty good, but my bet is the Patriots make progress in Mayo’s first season.
Early 2024 Projection: 3rd in AFC East