Wounded Cats: Can Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars Rebound in 2024?
NFL Offseason Roster Review #17
A year ago, it appeared that the two participants in a wild Wild Card Round comeback - the Jaguars and Chargers - were on their way to great things behind their franchise quarterbacks, Trevor Lawrence and Justin Herbert.
Things didn’t quite work out that way. The Chargers are rebooting under new head coach Jim Harbaugh, while Jaguars fans will hope that head coach Doug Pederson can get things back on track after a promising first season.
Jacksonville was certainly fighting against the undercurrent of some bad deals from the Urban Meyer era, but regardless of the reason, they need to get back on track quickly, because the AFC South isn’t waiting around; the Houston Texans are entering Year 2 of C.J. Stroud’s rookie window, a window that is shared by edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. and overlapped for two more years by cornerback Derek Stingley Jr.
At present, the Jaguars have $17 million in cap space (per Spotrac), but general manager Trent Baalke has the runway cleared beyond that, with a manageable $135 million currently committed to the 2025 cap. He will need to fit Lawrence’s new contract into that window - along with a deal for edge rusher Josh Allen - but there is space to make those moves.
The bigger question is what Jacksonville will do around them to match the expected progress of their division rival. The NFL has a way of changing quickly, but as it stands, the Texans are set to generate roughly $100 million in surplus cap value from the three aforementioned players over each of the next two years, and they aren’t the only ones outplaying their contracts in Houston. To match them, the Jaguars will need to make their roster moves count, because they are working with far less wiggle room.
Protecting the Franchise: The Offensive Line
Before the 2023 season, many analysts were pointing to Jacksonville’s offensive line, which was set to be without left tackle Cam Robinson due to suspension, and laid out best-case scenarios as to how the Jaguars could navigate his absence.
Unfortunately, nothing close to the best-case scenario played out, and Jacksonville is left with several question marks moving forward. Robinson, center Luke Fortner, and right tackle Anton Harrison should all be back, but the players between them may be different. Tyler Shatley and Ezra Cleveland are slated for free agency and Brandon Scherff looms as a potential cap casualty; it may seem a strange place to look for savings for a team that needs better play on the line, but Scherff, who has dealt with a lengthy list of injuries throughout his career, is no longer the player he was at his peak, when he brought one of the best combinations of athleticism and physicality at the position in the NFL.
It would also benefit the team to add a more physical complement to running back Travis Etienne, who has emerged as the team’s most dynamic weapon; the offensive line bears some share of the blame for the overall struggles running the ball, but rookie back Tank Bigsby did not maximize his opportunities.
Reloading the Weapons: Does Calvin Ridley Return?
Calvin Ridley may not have had the perfect season in Jacksonville, but posting 76 receptions, 1,016 yards, and 8 touchdowns is going to get you paid, particularly in today’s pass-heavy game.
Ridley’s situation may be complicated by his leave of absence from the Falcons and his subsequent gambling situation, but that’s an evolving part of today’s NFL, and I would guess that some team is willing to overlook that to offer him a significant deal if he becomes available.
It would be a tough loss for a Jaguars team that struggled to find an “outside the numbers” threat in previous years; Jacksonville could cut Zay Jones to free up money at the position, but that would only open up $3.5 million due to Jones’s dead cap hit, so there aren’t many options.
For Lawrence’s sake, you hope that Baalke can figure out a way to get this done. The defense hasn’t exactly been dominant and his offensive tackles seem unlikely to make the jump from adequate to elite; taking away his most dynamic outside receiver only makes life more difficult.
A New Face on Defense: Ryan Nielsen’s Impact
One change that followed Jacksonville’s disappointing season was the dismissal of defensive coordinator Mike Caldwell, who will be replaced by Ryan Nielsen, who did some interesting things during his lone season as Atlanta’s defensive coordinator. The Falcons lacked talent at several positions, but Nielsen got creative with his personnel; an early surprise was to see veteran Calais Campbell, who is 6’8, kick back to defensive end, a position he had played some during his younger years. Campbell is no longer as freakishly twitchy as he once was, but his length and size created a changeup that many quality offensive tackles struggled to deal with.
How that translates to Jacksonville is up in the air, but it’s something I’m excited about if I’m a Jaguars fan, because it shows a willingness to think outside the box and find creative solutions, which is essential in the arms race that is the NFL.
Besides outside cornerback Darious Williams, who could be cut without a significant dead cap hit, there wouldn’t be significant savings to realize by moving on from other veterans, but as we saw with this year’s Rams, sometimes there are benefits to opening positions up to competition and rolling it out for a few young guys to battle. Linebacker Foyesade Oluokun and safety Rayshawn Jenkins, who are both set to be back at significant cap hits, could fit that bill if Nielsen wants to go in a different direction.
The 1st Round Pick
Before we get to this year’s 1st-rounder, it’s worth noting that the Travon Walker selection is a big part of the reason Jacksonville is in this situation. One of the few benefits of the Urban Meyer debacle was that the Jaguars got to pick first overall with Lawrence on their roster; unfortunately, Walker has not had nearly the impact of Detroit’s Aidan Hutchinson, who went 2nd overall behind him. Walker does fit well in Nielsen’s scheme as a “heavy” end, but he would need to become far more productive to pay off his draft slot.
As for this year, it may depend on free agency, but if Baalke is going to hand out a big contract to Josh Allen at edge rusher, they might want to use their draft resources on the offensive side. It’s not that they lack for investment on that side of the ball - the Jags have poured plenty of resources into both sides of this roster - but they are in sore need of an ELITE player on the offensive line, and if they don’t bring back Ridley, they need to find a difference-maker on the outside.
Early 2024 Projection: 3rd in AFC South