Contrary to the popular narrative, the Packers were extremely aggressive from a roster-building perspective at the end of the Aaron Rodgers era, which makes it remarkable that they are where they are in regards to the cap heading into the 2024 NFL offseason.
Per Spotrac, the Packers have $350,000 in cap space, but that does not account for the pending roster move with left tackle David Bakhtiari. Bakhtiari, who suffered a career-altering knee injury, is likely to be released, which will lead to a dead cap hit of $19 million that still saves the team nearly $21 million on his current hit of $40 million.
General manager Brian Gutekunst has also created a tremendous amount of flexibility by crushing his two most recent drafts; quarterback Jordan Love’s cap hit will be significantly higher than his 2024 number of $12.7 million in years to come, but they have the surplus value contracts to work around that. The Packers may not have one standout generating $25+ million in surplus value - though right tackle Zach Tom is arguably close - but there are several candidates to jump into that class, and even if that doesn’t happen, they have over a dozen players making significant contributions on their rookie deals.
All of that gives Gutekunst plenty of room to play in his three-year cap outlook; add in the fact that Green Bay has extra picks in the 2nd, 3rd, and 6th rounds to supplement a roster with limited needs and an ascending quarterback, and the Packers are set to be a contender in what’s shaping up to be a loaded NFC North.
New Defensive Coordinator, New Mindset
Assuming that Jaire Alexander was unfamiliar with new defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley’s tendencies, Green Bay’s top cornerback was probably amped to learn what Hafley will likely bring to the table.
If you follow the Packers, you’ll be familiar with how many first-round picks they have on defense, but under Joe Barry, it was rare to see Green Bay play as if they had the talent advantage. Instead of going out on the attack and making the offense uncomfortable, the Packers often seemed content to sit back and avoid mistakes.
That’s fine if you’re not investing significant resources in your defense, but it doesn’t make a lot of sense given some of the pieces on Green Bay’s roster. NFL fans saw something along these lines play out this year in Cleveland when Jim Schwartz stepped in as defensive coordinator and implemented an extremely aggressive scheme that relied heavily on man coverage. That wasn’t the only change - the Browns added some quality pass-rushers to the front - but either way, the net result was the best defense Cleveland has fielded in the time they have had their two blue-chip cornerstones, defensive end Myles Garrett and cornerback Denzel Ward.
Alexander is ideally suited for this style; his hip swivel and short-area quickness are as good as any cornerback in the NFL, which allows him to recover if he misses on an aggressive press, or to play mirror-match from a press alignment.
Up front, the Packers may kick to more of a 4-3 look. Between nickel being the new base and teams playing 3-4 principles from 4-3 alignments and vice-versa, that discussion is muddier than it once was, but assuming that’s generally the case, it will be interesting to see how Hafley aligns his pieces.
Rashan Gary and Lukas Van Ness both have the size to play a traditional 4-3 end role, but will edge rusher Preston Smith - assuming he is not a cap casualty - align as an end or as an overhang “SAM” backer in the 4-3 front? Will Colby Wooden and Karl Brooks, versatile linemen who both brought pass rush wiggle as rookies, line up at defensive end in base, giving Green Bay an oversized presence on one edge, or do they kick in to play the three-technique?
It will also be interesting to see what Hafley wants to do with the nose position; Kenny Clark has shown throughout his career that he can thrive as an undersized penetrator at the position, but Hafley could also go with the much larger T.J. Slaton and allow Clark to wreak havoc from the three-technique. And we’ve gotten this far without mentioning Devonte Wyatt, who was dominant for stretches of his second season and is athletic enough to line up anywhere along the front.
However you slice it, the front should be dominant, and Hafley could mix and match approaches depending on what flavor he prefers against a particular opponent; for instance, off-ball-linebacker De’Vondre Campbell spent plenty of time as a SAM early in his career in Atlanta, and would have a very different impact playing that spot than Preston Smith. These are good choices to have, and with athletic marvel Quay Walker at the off-ball-backer spot next to Campbell, Hafley has plenty of options in designing his front.
Reloading the Secondary
The Packers are set to lose a lot of “snaps played” out of their secondary, both at safety, where Darnell Savage, Jonathan Owens, and Rudy Ford are all free agents, and at cornerback, where slot Keisean Nixon and Corey Ballentine are also hitting the market.
These aren’t necessarily household names, but it leaves Green Bay with little depth in the back end behind Alexander; Carrington Valentine played solid ball and gained experience as a 7th-round pick, but the one other experienced player currently under contract is the injury-prone Eric Stokes, who has been unable to get on the field for most of the past two seasons.
Green Bay could bring back a couple of the aforementioned players - none of them is likely to break the bank - but this is an area they could elect to address in the draft. With the amount of talent that they have in the front, the secondary is where Hafley will have an opportunity to put his mark on the team from a personnel standpoint. Based on the Top 50 list that NFL.com’s Daniel Jeremiah put out, the Packers should be able to add a cornerback with the 25th or 41st pick; if that is the direction they elect to go, Quinyon Mitchell (Toledo), Ennis Rakestraw Jr. (Missouri), Cooper DeJean (Iowa), Nate Wiggins (Clemson), and Kool-Aid McKinstry (Alabama) could all be in play.
This draft class is not as heralded at safety, so Green Bay may elect to retain one or two of their veterans and look to supplement those moves with a rookie in the middle rounds.
Standing Pat at Offensive Line and Receiver?
To do this, the Packers would need to re-sign right guard Jon Runyan Jr., who is set to be an unrestricted free agent, but that should be manageable; Runyan has been a steady player, but seems unlikely to draw more than a mid-range deal in free agency.
The question, given how well everything was clicking at the end of last season, is whether Green Bay wants to go that route or if they want to pursue a “blue-chip” player in one of those rooms. While they are not in a bad cap position, the Packers are unlikely to pursue that caliber of player in free agency, so it would come down to whether they want to spend one of their top two picks at these positions.
It all depends on how head coach Matt LaFleur looks at the current situation. Does he think Christian Watson can overcome his injury issues to emerge as a consistent blue-chip receiver? Does he want to move forward with the tackle tandem of Rasheed Walker and Zach Tom? Can left guard Elgton Jenkins get back to the dominant level he had established before his knee injury, or is he more likely to settle in as a solid contributor for the rest of his career?
If the Packers do move forward with Walker and Tom - a distinct possibility given how well both played in their second seasons - it will be one of the bigger wins in recent draft history. Walker was selected in the seventh round, Tom in the fifth; depending on who you ask, Tom is arguably generating something in the $20-25 million range for surplus cap value, while Walker probably slots in somewhere between $12 and $20.
Similarly, while it never hurts to add dynamic playmakers, Green Bay’s returns at receiver (Watson, Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks) and tight end (Luke Musgrave, Tucker Craft) in the last two drafts leaves them short on roster spots. The Packers could add a blue-chip player - if Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR, Ohio State) or Brock Bowers (TE, Georgia) experienced the fall of all falls on Draft Night, they wouldn’t be in danger of missing roster cuts - but there’s definitely a world where a lesser first-round pick at either position could spend the bulk of his rookie season on the bench.
It appears unlikely that the Packers will find a back as explosive as Aaron Jones in free agency or the draft this season, and given how well Jones played last year, the Packers may look to extend him and lower his 2024 cap hit, which is currently $17.5 million in what would be the final year of his deal. A.J. Dillon’s lackluster 2023 would seem to set him up to go elsewhere in free agency, so the Packers could throw volume at that spot with their extra picks in the late rounds of this year’s draft. NFL draft evaluators are not high on this crop of running backs, but history tells us that more than a few backs will wind up making their mark on the 2024 season.
As Sound As Any Roster?
Things change fast in the NFL, but given how well Jordan Love played in his first season as the starting quarterback, and how deep Gutekunst’s recent drafts have made this roster, I think it’s hard to argue anyone is in better shape than Green Bay. There’s the Chiefs, of course, but the back-to-back Super Bowl champs have several difficult roster decisions looming; point being, of all the teams angling to contend in 2024, the Packers are as primed as anyone.
There are interesting questions to answer - the structure of Love’s new contract chief among them - but Green Bay fans can head into the offseason confident that their squad will be pushing for the NFC North title, and potentially more, come 2024.
Early 2024 Projection: 1st in NFC North (the Lions are a tempting choice - I could go “2.5” for all four teams in this division and feel fine about it - but let’s shake things up. it’s February, after all! )