Despite the Achilles injury that derailed what was arguably the best season of his career, there is every reason to think that Kirk Cousins will be back in Minnesota. Head coach Kevin O’Connell has expressed his interest in a reunion, and given the difficulties that defensive coordinator Brian Flores’s unit presented to opponents throughout the season, Minnesota likely would have been in the thick of things come playoff time with Cousins in the fold.
All that said, I wouldn’t count out the Vikings from jumping in on the sweepstakes if Chicago puts the 1st overall pick up for auction; general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah may have shifted his perspective since his initial comments on Cousins’s place in the QB pecking order, but if he has any hesitation about signing a 35-year old quarterback coming off a torn Achilles, perhaps he takes his shot at a franchise quarterback this offseason.
It’s a long shot, but with Justin Jefferson coming up on the 5th-year option of his rookie deal, the Vikings would welcome the breathing room created by a rookie quarterback contract. Throw in the fact that the draft’s top quarterback options bring a more dynamic element to the position than Cousins, and Minnesota could decide it’s worth rolling the dice.
The one outcome that seems unlikely is that the Vikings roll into the season with an underwhelming option at quarterback; at this stage in the roster build, it would be strange to watch Minnesota let Cousins walk and go the Arthur Smith route, trying to win with a journeyman option at quarterback.
With that assumption in hand, let’s look at the rest of Minnesota’s roster, and how they can use their draft capital (11th pick, down a 3rd-rounder, up a 4th) and cap space ($30 million per Spotrac) to build out this roster for 2024.
The Offense: Building Blocks Galore
Bookend offensive tackles? Check.
A dynamic 1-2-3 punch at pass catcher? Double-check.
The cap structure of these players is not quite as good as it was in 2023, but with Christian Darrisaw and Brian O’Neill at offensive tackle, and Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson forming one of the NFL’s top receiver groups, it would be tough to draw up a better foundation to start an offense from.
Minnesota took a committee approach at running back, and with no elite talent at the position in this year’s draft, the Vikings are likely to employ a similar approach in 2024, whether or not that includes restricted free-agent Cam Akers. The interior offensive line is in a similar situation; center Garrett Bradbury and guard Ed Ingram were solid enough for this offense to consistently move the ball well when they had Cousins at quarterback, and are expected to keep playing at that standard. The second guard spot is up in the air with Dalton Risner slated to hit free agency, but as far as roster holes go, that’s a manageable one.
The Vikings also need to supplement their offensive line depth - with players such as Oli Udoh and David Quessenberry slated for free agency, Minnesota currently has their four returning starters and three undrafted rookies with no experience under contract - but again, that’s a manageable concern. Whoever lines up at quarterback will be in a great situation; Jefferson is in the thick of the discussion as the NFL’s best receiver, Addison was more than capable as a number one in his absence, and the offensive line should be competent at the very least. Throw in Josh Oliver, one of the NFL’s better blocking tight ends, and the Vikings have terrific personnel versatility along with a high talent level.
Cousins is the easy answer at quarterback, but with Jefferson entering the final year of his rookie deal, and Darrisaw, another former first-rounder, entering Year 4, the Vikings need to have an eye on their next sources of surplus cap value. Addison is entering the second year of his rookie deal, which is a good start, but the Vikings would need to aggressively target rookie contracts to keep the core of this offense together around Cousins over, say, a three-year window. That’s where the Vikings stick out as a potential dark horse for the first overall pick; it’s not a Cousins thing, it’s a “we have one tackle in the mid-$20 millions, another who will need a similar deal in two years, a receiver who will command $30 million in one, and a tight end who makes $15 and bumps to $20 in two years” thing.
The biggest takeaway from looking at this roster? Minnesota has a lot of impact players on their roster - and a lot of them make a lot of money or are slated to make a lot of money - which means some hard decisions are ahead. According Spotrac, the Vikings have $50 million of voided cap hits for Cousins and defensive ends Danielle Hunter and Marcus Davenport on the books for 2024; there is a lot of magic to be worked with the cap - and that structure gives Minnesota a lot of wiggle room in future years - but even so, it is a factor to keep in mind as the Vikings decide whether to make a run at retaining arguably the top quarterback and the top pass rusher on the 2024 free-agent market.
The Defense: The Back End is Back, The Front Not So Much…
The good news for Minnesota’s defense? Defensive coordinator Brian Flores, safeties Harrison Smith, Cam Bynum, and Josh Mettellus, and cornerbacks Byron Murphy, Akayleb Evans, and Mekhi Blackmon are all back in 2024. That’s a lot of secondary snaps for a defense whose unorthodox style requires GREAT communication in the back end.
The bad news is that they are almost starting from scratch up front; defensive linemen Harrison Phillips and Patrick Jones are under contract, as is linebacker Ivan Pace, who was a standout as an undrafted rookie, but more names are slated for free agency; as it stands, Danielle Hunter, D.J. Wonnum, Marcus Davenport, Jonathan Bullard, and Jordan Hicks are all set to hit the market, leaving the Vikings with a significant number of snaps to replace in the defensive front.
Hunter would be the hardest piece to replace; the ultra-talented edge rusher shook off the injuries that plagued him in 2020 and 2021, racking up 10.5 sacks in 2022 before exploding for 17.5 in 2023 while playing in every game over that two-year window. Hunter is coming up on his age-30 season, but with his recent combination of productivity and availability, it would not surprise to see him command a three-year deal at the top of the market, which might leave Minnesota out of the discussions.
The good news is that they have an exceptionally creative defensive coordinator; I had difficulty imagining how Flores’s past schemes would translate to Minnesota’s personnel, but he answered any doubts I had in emphatic fashion, using unorthodox tactics that helped several unheralded players turn in solid seasons. Whether or not Hunter returns, Minnesota’s ideal draft scenario, assuming they stay put at #11, might be for a pass rusher to fall to them. With bookend tackles in place and one of the NFL’s better receiver duos, some of the premium positions aren’t priorities for the Vikings, and head coach Kevin O’Connell would really have to go tight end-crazy to fit Brock Bowers in if the Georgia product happened to fall to them. Cornerback would also be a consideration, but given what the Vikings got out of this back end last season, adding to the front is probably the priority.
Royal Rumble in the NFC North?
Whoever ends up playing quarterback for the Vikings, it’s hard to imagine this team won’t be competitive. Sure, there is some possibility that the Vikings trade up and the quarterback doesn’t work out, or that Cousins struggles to return to form after the Achilles injury, but whoever is under center will have outstanding pieces around him.
The NFC North is shaping up to be an extremely competitive division - Minnesota beat San Francisco before Cousins went down, Chicago played competitive ball after quarterback Justin Fields returned from injury, and Green Bay and Detroit both picked up at least one playoff victory before losing to the 49ers - but barring disaster, the Vikings should be right back in the thick of things in 2024.
Early 2024 Projection: 3rd in NFC North (should I push them to 2nd? 1st? I could go “2.5” for all four teams in this division and feel fine about it)