The “Process” Perfected: C.J. Stroud and Texans Have NFL on Notice Entering 2024
NFL Offseason Roster Review #27
It took a few go-rounds - and an NFL team that unintentionally tanked - but sports fans have finally seen the ideal outcome of “The Process” that the Philadelphia 76ers attempted to implement in the NBA over the past decade. Past NFL teams, such as the Cleveland Browns, actively took this approach, only to select a middle-of-the-road quarterback at the top of the draft.
It’s fair to say that has not happened in Houston.
C.J. Stroud has been everything the Texans could have hoped for, and the roster around him is set to take off. General manager Nick Caserio found a head coach who got the most out of his players in DeMeco Ryans, and followed up that hire by hitting the 2nd overall pick out of the park with the selection of Stroud.
If that wasn’t enough, Caserio followed up the Stroud pick with a risky maneuver that paid off in spades, moving up to pick defensive end Will Anderson Jr. with the 3rd overall pick. Caserio had to give up a future first-round pick to make the move, but Anderson was everything they hoped for and more. The Defensive Rookie of the Year, Anderson is a relentless presence on the edge who has a tremendous impact against the run and pass; the term “high-motor” is stereotypically associated with white guys, but it applies perfectly to Anderson’s game. The Alabama product is also tremendously talented, but the first word that pops to mind when I think of Anderson’s film is, as mentioned, relentless. To top it off, the Texans picked up receiver Tank Dell in the 3rd round of the 2023 Draft (the parallels to the Colts drafting Andrew Luck and T.Y. Hilton in the same class are interesting, given that Dell is a Hilton clone), leaving them with a huge amount of projected cap surplus over the next three seasons.
The Texans hit a wall against Baltimore, but they head into Year Two of the Stroud era with their first playoff win under their belt, $65 million in cap space (per Spotrac), and a full deck of draft picks. Nor are any contractual surprises looming on the horizon; Houston only has $138 and $101 million committed to the 2025 and 2026 caps.
That leaves a clear runway for the remaining three years of Stroud, Anderson, and Dell’s rookie deals. With that trio projected to generate somewhere between $75 and $95 million per season in surplus cap value over a three-year window, Caserio and Ryans have all sorts of options as they build this roster moving forward.
Keeping Their Own
Houston has several players slated for free agency, headlined by defensive end Jonathan Greenard, who has emerged as an impact player over the past two seasons.
Barring a huge surprise, Greenard will be back in Houston - he is a great fit across from Anderson, and nobody is in a position to outbid Houston - so the bigger question is what the Texans will do about veterans such as running back Devin Singletary, wide receiver Noah Brown, tight end Dalton Schultz, offensive tackle George Fant, defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins, defensive ends Derek Barnett and Jerry Hughes, and cornerback Steven Nelson. All of these players made significant contributions to last year’s squad, but the Texans could elect to pursue upgrades on most of these players in free agency or the draft.
Caserio also has to keep an eye on the rookie deals that will expire over the next few years, but that will happen on a rolling basis. Wide receiver Nico Collins has one year left on his deal, safety Jalen Pitre has two, and cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. and guard Kenyon Green, their first-round picks from 2022, have two years plus their fifth-year options. With Collins emerging as a top-end receiver and Stingley reminding everyone why he was drafted over Jets cornerback Sauce Gardner down the stretch in 2023, it seems likely that the Texans will prioritize long-term deals for that pair at least.
If I were to lay money on the free agents the Texans will retain, I would pick the two former Cowboys, Brown and Schultz. Brown brings a unique element with his size at receiver and had his breakout season playing with Stroud, while Schultz continued to post solid production in his first season with the Texans. Barnett will be an interesting case - Anderson and Greenard eat up most of the snaps at end when healthy - and my guess is they will look to upgrade the cornerback spots not manned by Stingley.
Better Returns on the Offensive Line?
The one area of Houston’s roster that was a relative disappointment in 2023 was the offensive line; left tackle Laremy Tunsil and right guard Shaq Mason played to their accustomed standard, but little else went as planned. Stroud’s uncanny ability to operate under pressure covered up some of that in the passing game, but the Texans probably aren’t looking to rely on that, and they would benefit from an improved run game in 2024.
Most of these issues came down to injury; left guard Kenyon Green, a former first-round pick, missed the season with a shoulder injury, and right tackle Tytus Howard, who is on an expensive veteran contract, was replaced by George Fant when Howard suffered an early injury. Fant played well enough that the Texans tried Howard at guard, where he had played earlier in his career, but Howard struggled in that role before suffering a season-ending injury.
That left guard spot that Howard attempted to fill turned into a black hole for the Texans; their original starting center, Juice Scruggs, would up slotting in there after his own early-season injury opened the door for fellow rookie Jarrett Patterson at center in what became a second revolving door. Patterson wound up going on IR with an ankle injury, was replaced by trade acquisition Kendrick Green, who went on IR with a knee injury and was replaced by Michael Deiter, who manned the pivot position down the stretch.
The Texans weren’t terrible on the offensive line - that’s not why I’m pointing this out - it’s more to note the irony of the fact that the position group where the Texans had made one of their largest collective investments wound up being so chaotic when some of the rooms filled with journeymen and mid-round picks provided steadier returns.
It also leaves Houston with some awkward questions. Do they retain Fant at right tackle after the season he had, or put Howard back at the position where he earned his current contract? Is it a competition between the two? Is it an open competition on the interior between Kenyon Green, Kendrick Green, Scruggs, and Patterson?
Whatever the outcome, it’s not far-fetched for Texans fans to hope for more continuity on the offensive line this season, which will only make this offense better.
Spine of the Defense
Houston’s defense has some similarities to the unit Ryans coordinated in San Francisco - they have the edge rushers and the lockdown cornerback - but the guys patrolling the middle of the field look a lot different than Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw. Nobody can say how the Super Bowl would have ended if Greenlaw hadn’t torn his Achilles, but there’s no question San Francisco’s defense looked a lot different when they had the rangy, instinctive Greenlaw on the field instead of his replacement-level backup.
The Texans have gotten by with low-cost veterans and middle-round draft picks at inside linebacker - you can only fix so much in one offseason - so it would not be a surprise to see them target the position this offseason. If Lavonte David and/or Devin White wind up leaving Tampa Bay, Houston could be a great fit. David, who is still moving well despite his age, would slot in nicely as a short-term contract addition, while White would have a chance to regain his early-career trajectory, which could mean that the Texans add another blue-chip player to their defense without giving up draft capital.
Houston could also look to address this position in the draft; Texas A&M linebacker Edgerrin Cooper looks to be the headliner at this position, and could be available when the Texans are on the clock in the final part of the first round. If Cooper is gone, Houston could address their need at cornerback - there is a glut of cover guys who seem likely to go in that range - and look to add an off-ball linebacker with their second-round pick, where players like Junior Colson (Michigan) and Payton Wilson (N.C. State) could be in play.
Avoid the Big-Time Trades
It is exciting when the Chargers make the big swing for Khalil Mack, or when the Dolphins trade for Tyreek Hill.
It is less exciting to sort through those cap situations two years down the road.
Houston has all the flexibility in the world right now, but the AFC is loaded, particularly with Patrick Mahomes looming in Kansas City. You might argue that’s all the more reason to load up for three years, but so much can go wrong on a championship run, and it’s not as if Stroud can’t hang with Mahomes.
Instead, were I in Caserio’s shoes, I would look to approach this with a ten-year window in mind. Caserio should still look to spend the team’s cash, but he should do it in free agency, even if that means overpaying, rather than giving up draft picks for veteran contracts; it doesn’t seem like it now, but Caserio MUST continue to hit on draft picks so that there are contracts on the roster generating surplus value by the time he sits down to ink Stroud and Anderson to new deals in 2027.
The Texans are going to have options. If a big-time player like Kansas City defensive tackle Chris Jones, or Kansas City cornerback L’Jarius Sneed, gets to free agency, they could hurt the champs and help themselves. Baltimore defensive tackle Justin Madubuike could also be an incredible interior complement to what Anderson and Greenard bring on the edge, as would Miami defensive tackle Christian Wilkins, who could wind up hitting the open market given Miami’s cap woes. The choices are abundant; it’s all about how sustainable a model Caserio and Ryans want to pursue.
Early 2024 Projection: 1st in AFC South (I’ll take Stroud over Lawrence without hesitation and Houston’s roster is in a far better place than Jacksonville’s)