Before we turn the page to 2024, it’s worth reflecting on the Arthur Smith era, because I’m not sure we’ve seen its like in recent NFL history.
We’ve seen the one-and-done head coach - heck, we’ve seen half-season and done in each of the last two years - but I can’t believe we just saw an offensive-minded head coach hold a job for three years and NEVER take his shot at quarterback.
Perhaps Smith counted on the fact that owner Arthur Blank would give him a longer runway, but if that’s the case, it’s an odd way to approach life in the NFL. Atlanta did some positive things in Smith’s first two seasons, but ultimately, you need to win games, and to do that, you need more than Marcus Mariota/Desmond Ridder/Taylor Heinicke at quarterback.
With Smith out, new head coach Raheem Morris returns to an Atlanta organization where he once served as the interim head coach for his second whack at a head coaching gig. Morris has had a lot of time to reflect on his tenure as Tampa Bay’s head coach in his early thirties and brings an incredible wealth of football experience to this organization.
The bigger question now is, did Atlanta assemble the sort of roster you would expect from a team that drafted in the Top 10 for three straight seasons and ignored the quarterback position?
An Underwhelming Roster
In a word, no.
The defense has a pair of high-end players in cornerback A.J. Terrell and safety Jessie Bates, but the fact that a 37-year-old Calais Campbell led this team in sacks tells you all you need to know about the defensive front. It’s not that they need to cut everyone and start from scratch, but they need to find one or two impact players who can lead the group up front.
A couple of underwhelming 2nd-round picks have contributed to those issues on defense, but the Falcons didn’t exactly pour resources into that side of the ball over the past three seasons. They focused on the offense, which makes it concerning that the unit turned in such underwhelming results in 2023.
Atlanta’s trio of Top 10 picks at the skill positions - running back Bijan Robinson, wide receiver Drake London, and “tight end” (wide receiver) Kyle Pitts - have all had their moments. Pitts topped 1,000 receiving yards as a rookie, London posted over 900 last season, and Robinson posted 1,400 total yards during his rookie campaign.
That said, nobody is going to confuse that group with any trio from San Francisco’s quartet of superstars; maybe that would be different if a better quarterback were throwing to them, but as it stands, nobody from Atlanta’s trio is pushing for All-League honors. And while they haven’t used three straight top 10 picks on the offensive line, Atlanta has also invested a significant amount of free agent dollars and draft picks up front, which made their average performance in 2023 a disappointment.
Could all of that change with a new quarterback? It’s far from a certainty, but there’s a pretty good chance it would do something; the rest of Atlanta’s offense can say all of the right things, but at the end of the day, these guys are trying to make their living in this sport, and when sub-par quarterback play prevents skill players from putting up numbers, frustration will inevitably build up.
How could the Falcons do that? The 8th overall pick does not offer an obvious path to one of this year’s “Big 3” at quarterback, but that doesn’t mean the Falcons are without options. There are a couple of veteran options who could push Atlanta over the top in the 2024 NFC South, and if the Falcons want to take the longer view, a trade with the Chicago Bears - either for Justin Fields or the first overall pick - could certainly come into play.
Paths to a Quarterback, Pt 1: The Veteran Options
As it stands, four names on the list of potential free-agent quarterbacks stick out as options: Kirk Cousins, Baker Mayfield, Ryan Tannehill, and Jacoby Brissett.
With former Rams quarterbacks coach Zac Robinson taking over as offensive coordinator in Atlanta, we can expect some variation of the Shannahan-style offense, and all four of these quarterbacks have had success in similar offenses in the past. His Achilles injury complicates the situation, but Cousins would still be the top option if he hits free agency, and for Atlanta, signing Mayfield away from Tampa Bay would strengthen their hand while leaving the reigning NFC South champs with a question mark at quarterback.
However, Cousins and Mayfield appear more likely to return to their former clubs, which leaves Ryan Tannehill and Jacoby Brissett. Atlanta fans might not get as fired up about those names, but I’d be willing to bet Atlanta would have found a way to win the NFC South with either of the two at the helm this season; or at least, they would have had a better shot in what was ultimately a tight race.
Tannehill had a rough year in Tennessee, but he’s two years removed from playing some pretty good ball that had the Titans atop the AFC before injuries knocked him out of the lineup, and the Cleveland Browns might be coming off two consecutive playoff appearances if they had not benched Brissett in favor of Deshaun Watson when their “franchise” quarterback returned from suspension in 2022.
Atlanta’s roster is not overwhelmingly talented, but it is more than solid enough to push for a playoff spot with average quarterback play. The question is whether the Falcons want to settle for average with a veteran acquisition or gamble on a young player with the potential to become a difference-maker.
Paths to a Quarterback, Pt 2: The Draft
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: an NFC South team with a competitive roster, a need at quarterback, and a pick in the bottom of the Top 10 trades a haul to acquire the 1st overall pick.
This tactic worked out about as poorly as it could have for the Panthers, who were an absolute train wreck in Bryce Young’s rookie season, but that shouldn’t stop Atlanta from considering a similar trade with the Bears, who once again hold the first overall pick due to Carolina’s woes. As bad as things went for the Panthers, their season could have been very different if they had drafted C.J. Stroud and Tank Dell instead of Bryce Young and Jonathan Mingo. Heck, they might not even have needed to swap Mingo for Dell; the Ole Miss product might have been far more productive with Stroud slinging him the rock. The Panthers also could have made different choices on their offensive coaching staff; point being, if the Falcons did swing this trade with the Bears, their decision would not be the same one the Panthers made.
The Falcons could also hope that one of the top three quarterback options - USC’s Caleb Williams, UNC’s Drake Maye, and LSU’s Jayden Daniels - slides to them at the 8th pick, or perhaps they fall in the camp that loves Oregon’s Bo Nix. If they do like Nix, that becomes a more viable strategy, but if they don’t, it would be an awfully bold strategy to roll into draft night just hoping that one of these three highly touted options slides down a board where the Vikings (11), Broncos (12), and Raiders (13) could all swap picks with the Cardinals (4), Chargers (5), or Giants (6), and also assumes the Cardinals and Giants wouldn’t rethink their commitments to their current quarterbacks if one of these prospects slips on draft night.
However, I don't think any of this will come into play on draft night; my guess is that Bears GM Ryan Poles will once again pull the trigger way ahead of time, which, depending on his decision, could present Atlanta with another option.
Paths to a Quarterback, Pt 3: Trade for Justin Fields
The Justin Fields experiment continued to baffle in 2023, and it’s no surprise that the Bears elected to move on from offensive coordinator Luke Getsy after last year’s performance.
It’s hard to understand why Getsy was so insistent on keeping Fields in the pocket during the first season together, but for one reason or another, that was the approach that the Bears took in 2022 until a few games into the season, when Chicago’s coaching staff recognized that they had one of the better runners in the NFL at quarterback and started using him accordingly.
As dynamic as Fields was as a runner, he also ran himself into the ground, so it was fair to expect Chicago to scale back to that approach, but when they faced off with Green Bay in Week One, it was as if they had amnesia; rather than designing the offense off the dynamic threat Fields presents as a runner, Getsy was right back to using Fields as a pocket passer. That general theme continued until Fields suffered an injury, at which point Getsy started to lean more on the quarterback as a run threat with Tyson Bagent in the lineup, which somehow wound up opening the door for some second-half success once Fields returned to the lineup.
That’s all to say that, despite the rollercoaster ride it’s been through three years in Chicago, I’m with Bears receiver D.J. Moore in saying that I’d stick with Fields. The flashes are undeniable and the improvement, over a three-year window, is there. As we’ve seen with Lamar Jackson and Jared Goff in 2023, there isn’t a strict age cutoff for improving as a quarterback in this league; there is every reason to expect the Fields, who is 24 years old and by all accounts dedicated to his craft, can continue to develop his game in the years to come.
If the Bears do elect to move Fields, it might be the ideal opportunity for Atlanta. The Falcons could acquire Fields at a reduced cost relative to the first overall pick, allowing them to drop in an uber-talented quarterback who has already shown he can survive the ups and downs that are a part of life in the NFL. Rather than giving up the 8th overall pick and next year’s first-rounder, they might be able to acquire Fields for this year’s second-rounder and one of their third-rounders; it would tighten up the runway relative to the first overall pick, but would also allow Atlanta to move forward with a more talented roster.
Final Thoughts
The one outcome that would be hard to stomach is Atlanta kicking the can down the road; cornerback A.J. Terrell is coming up on the end of his rookie deal, and the remaining years on the rookie deals for Kyle Pitts, Drake London, and Bijan Robinson will be gone faster than it seems. While those players have not lived up to expectations, they’ve had enough moments to suggest they would look different in a functional offense, and it would be a shame if Atlanta fans are left asking what might have been three years from now.
The debacle in Carolina might make decision-makers around the NFL gun shy, but if I’m Raheem Morris, I’m sticking to the optimistic case and living in the world where I picked Stroud rather than Young. Fields may fit the bill as well, but if the Bears put the first overall pick up for auction, it’s easy to envision a world where Atlanta trades up to number one, sees their collection of skill talent EXPLODE with a difference-maker slinging the rock, and establishes a stranglehold on the NFC South that could last for years, given the state of the rosters in Carolina and New Orleans.
Or the Falcons could go bust and wind up as one more trainwreck.
That’s what makes it fun.
Early 2024 Projection: 1st in NFC South (aggressive? sure. but Tampa Bay and New Orleans will be one year older, and Carolina is between a rock and a hard place)