In terms of unformed products, it’s hard to say that there is a better collection of assets than the one general manager Chris Ballard has assembled in Indianapolis. Despite losing starting quarterback Anthony Richardson to a season-ending shoulder injury (and several game-ending injuries before that), the Colts competed for a playoff spot behind head coach Shane Steichen and quarterback Gardner Minshew.
It’s not the end goal, but there are worse places to be than feeling good about your offensive line, your head coach, and your general manager headed into a critical year in Richardson’s development.
Their top receiver and cornerback (Michael Pittman Jr. and Kenny Moore) are among the impact players slated for free agency, but with $66 million in cap space (per Spotrac) and no glaring holes on the roster, Ballard has the resources to keep those players around. Everything will ultimately hinge on Richardson’s development and availability, but in the meantime, Ballard can focus on using his cap space and full deck of draft picks, starting with the 15th pick, to build a roster that can trump the programs taking shape in Houston and Jacksonville.
NFL Free Agency
If history is any indicator, Ballard won’t get too far out over his skis in free agency, but if he and Steichen determine they want to add a top-of-market option, there are some interesting possibilities.
From a purely aesthetic standpoint, lining up Minnesota’s Danielle Hunter next to DeForest Buckner is an enticing option - few teams would have defense linemen more physically suited to transition to power forward in the NBA - and though they might not look quite the same lining up next to Buckner, Brian Burns (CAR) and Bryce Huff (NYJ) have the potential to add some juice to what Kwity Paye and Samson Ebukan currently provide on the edge.
Another option could be to pursue Baltimore’s Justin Madubuike; defensive coordinator Gus Bradley would need to get creative if the team retains nose tackle Grover Stewart in free agency, but a front with 3-4 alignment principles that lines up Madubuike, Buckner, and Stewart as the down linemen with Paye as an overhang would be dominant against the run without giving up much in the pass rush. The Colts could also swap Madubuike for Stewart; as stout of a run defender as Stewart is, Madubuike has emerged as an elite player who provides much more as a pass rusher.
The final option on defense - and I stuck to this side of the ball because, short of Cincinnati’s Tee Higgins unexpectedly hitting the market, Pittman Jr. is arguably the top target on the market - would be to pursue a cover guy. There’s a possibility that L’Jarius Sneed, who is coming off an All-Pro-type season in Kansas City, could be allowed to walk. The Chiefs don’t have the luxury of retaining every elite veteran player and defensive tackle Chris Jones is also hitting free agency, but unlike outside cornerback, where Jaylen Watson and Joshua Williams have both racked up quality reps over the past two seasons, the Chiefs don’t have an heir apparent if they lose Jones.
If Sneed does hit the market, he’s an interesting fit for the Colts; Sneed is an exceptionally versatile player who excels inside and out in a variety of techniques, so he isn’t “scheme-specific”, but he does have the type of length that the Seattle “Cover 3” tree has long drooled over. Bradley, who in some ways is the last of that guard, should be able to max out Sneed if they go that route.
Expect the Colts to take care of their own first - it’s typically a safer bet to stick with players who have already demonstrated they can thrive in your culture - but there is a chance that the Colts could retain Pittman Jr., Moore, Stewart, and safety Julian Blackmon while still finding room for an 8-figure contract.
NFL Draft
In a draft stocked with quarterbacks and offensive tackles at the top, the Colts have the luxury of looking elsewhere. Bernhard Raimann established himself as a legit left tackle in his second season, and with Will Fries emerging at right guard to go along with the old guard of left guard Quenton Nelson, center Ryan Kelly, and right tackle Braden Smith, Indianapolis is set on the offensive line for at least 2024.
That means that Colts fans should be cheering for the defensive tackles, the edge rushers, the cover guys, and the receivers to slip. It’s early in the process, but it appears that Indianapolis will have options when they get on the clock; this is by no means an all-inclusive list, but on Daniel Jeremiah’s initial top 50, players at defensive tackle (Byron Murphy II, Texas), edge rusher (Dallas Turner, Alabama; Jared Verse, FSU; Laiatu Latu, UCLA), and cornerback (Terrion Arnold, Alabama; Quinyon Mitchell, Toledo) could all be available depending on how the board breaks on Draft Night.
This draft class also features a cluster of stud receivers (Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State; Rome Odunze, Washington; Malik Nabers, LSU; Brian Thomas Jr., LSU) and a weapon at tight end (Brock Bowers, Georgia), which means it is likely the Colts will have options on either side of the ball when they are on the clock. Bowers would be an obvious fit if he slips - he would add a different dimension to Indy’s current tight end room - and the Colts could surprise and go receiver if they want another dynamic option to pair with Josh Downs; Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce are quality players in their own right, but few would compare their ability to separate as route-runners to a Justin Jefferson.
The great thing for the Colts is that there are no right answers here; they can add the best player available and bring him along at his own pace. When you compare that to the situation the Jets are in, where the options at 10th overall appear to be offensive tackle, offensive tackle, and offensive tackle, and the selection will immediately be relied upon to start, Indianapolis’s hopes do not hinge on the team getting a specific position with their first-round pick.
Instead, Colts fans can sit back, and cheer for all the teams without a quarterback to get antsy and move up the board in front of them.
Last Word
As relaxed as Colts fans can be on NFL Draft Night, the Indianapolis faithful are going to have their hearts in their throats every time Richardson gets hit until he shows he can get through a full season.
It’s the reality of the situation, but at the same time, it’s worth remembering that when Richardson played, he showed signs of being a supremely special player. In terms of physical potential, this dude is it, and he showed more than enough accuracy and game sense in the context of those physical tools to believe he could make the discussion about the AFC South’s Top QB a three-way discussion.
NFL fans got robbed of something special when Richardson went down; here’s hoping we see him for 17 in the upcoming season. If that happens, the team around him will be ready to roll.
Early 2024 Projection: 2nd in AFC South (Shaking things up! Tight three-way race at the top, but someone has to go in each spot!)