He’ll need a trigger man, but when you look at everything else on the offense, it’s hard not to get excited about what new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith could do with this group.
His insistence that he did not need a quarterback in Atlanta aside, Smith did an outstanding job getting high-end results with personnel that has some parallels to the offense he ran in Tennessee.
Can you see running back Najee Harris thriving in an under-center system? Imagine a world where George Pickens and Diontae Johnson take the in-breakers off play-action to the house? Get AMPED about an offensive mind who does as good a job with anyone using tight ends and fullbacks drawing up ways to use Pat Freiermuth, Darnell Washington, and Connor Heyward?
Of course, Smith’s Tennessee offense stunk until they swapped out Marcus Mariota for Ryan Tannehill - no offense to Derrick Henry, A.J. Brown, Jonnu Smith, Taylor Lewan, Rodger Saffold, and Ben Jones - and the Steelers may need to find an upgrade on Kenny Pickett to make this all work.
Fortunately, while Mariota, Desmond Ridder, and Taylor Heinicke were a shade too far the other way, Tannehill isn’t exactly a generational quarterback. So while the Steelers may not have a path to their long-term solution at the position, that doesn’t mean that the next season with T.J. Watt and Minkah Fitzpatrick will go to waste.
Still Elite on Defense?
Pittsburgh’s ability to win games on defense, particularly early on this season, felt entirely out of place in 2023. Granted, 2023 turned out to be a down year offensively, but even in that context, we are a long way from the days of Ray Lewis and The Ravens shutting down opponents wire-to-wire.
T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith had something to say about that; not to slight All-Pro safety Minkah Fitzpatrick, but it was Pittsburgh’s edge-rushing duo that was consistently making game-changing plays in the season’s early going, pushing the Steelers to wins even when the offense struggled to do its part.
Defensive lineman Cam Heyward is entering his age-35 season, but even as the longtime All-Pro nears the end of the road, Pittsburgh is reloading at other positions. Keeanu Benton may not wind up matching Heyward’s standard, but the second-rounder showed he is going to be an impact player as a rookie, while his fellow second-round pick, Joey Porter Jr., is tracking to be dominant; the Steelers brought him along slowly, but Porter Jr. looked like the best Pittsburgh cornerback since Ike Taylor in the back half of the season, which will give this defense a different feel in years to come.
The off-ball linebacker position is up in the air - apparently that’s a Pennsylvania thing these days - but Fitzpatick’s ability to impact the middle of the field in coverage helps to mitigate some of those issues. The Steelers could amp things up with a free agent, but that seems unlikely for a squad that is an estimated $15 million over the cap (per Spotrac); fortunately, there are enough impact players at foundational positions on this defense to bet on them filling in the holes around them.
Are We There Yet: The Offensive Line
It’s been several years since Maurkice Pouncey and David DeCastro were pushing for All-Pro honors at center and right guard, and despite concerted efforts to rebuild the position, Pittsburgh has struggled to match their old standard along the offensive line.
Drafting Broderick Jones in the first round was a big step toward that; the rookie had some issues, most notably a tendency to lunge/overextend in pass pro, but that can be improved, and Jones brings a level of athleticism and physicality that is much more difficult to acquire.
It is easy for an NFL team attempting to make upgrades on the offensive line to fall into the trap of attempting to upgrade a below-average group by adding players who are, at best, average, because those are often the only linemen who make it to the free agent market. Pittsburgh followed this pattern several times; whether it was guard James Daniels, center Mason Cole, or guard Isaac Seumalo, the Steelers addressed their line issues with players who had been, at best, the fourth-best players on their old offensive lines.
That can get you to a certain level of competency, but at some point, you need to find a freakshow to have an above-average offensive line, and there aren’t that many human beings capable of physically imposing their will on an NFL defensive lineman.
Do the Steelers add another “plus” lineman to go along with Jones’s talent? It’s certainly possible if the right player is available with the 20th overall pick; Pittsburgh has seven solid linemen under contract, but if there is a potential difference-maker, it could take the line from solid to great. Outside of quarterback, it’s hard to see what would move the needle more for Pittsburgh’s offense in this draft.
The QB: Kenny Pickett?
With Mason Rudolph set to hit free agency and Mitch Trubisky a likely cap casualty, Kenny Pickett could be the last man standing in Pittsburgh.
The Steelers have made it clear there will be competition at the position, and unless Pickett shows up to camp looking like a different player, it’s hard to imagine who is going to beat out. I think Pickett is likely to have a long career as a backup - he definitely has some moxie to his game - but when it gets down to it, his physical tools are mediocre at best, and he clearly knows it; from the time Pickett was rolled out his rookie season, the most notable aspect of his game was his unwillingness to make aggressive throws down the field.
It’s not a problem for a quarterback to wear gloves, per se, but in a league where you’re competing with the likes of Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen, it’s a disadvantage if you need gloves to grip the ball. Arm talent isn’t the be all end all, much as height-weight-speed metrics don’t matter if you can’t play your position, but if you can play your position, those physical tools go a long way in determining your ceiling, which is where a Teddy Bridgewater or a Pickett can hit a limit.
Arthur Smith’s offense does a good job of creating explosive gains off intermediate throws, so Pickett could be a solid option in his system, but even with their cap issues, the Steelers could probably reunite free agent Ryan Tannehill with Smith at a modest price, and it’s hard to see Pickett beating out Tannehill in a competition.
Pittsburgh fans may have been frustrated with Mike Tomlin’s recent decisions at offensive coordinator, but I think he made an outstanding hire who can fit the city’s culture in Arthur Smith; we’ll have to see if they can do the same at quarterback.
Early 2024 Projection: 3rd in AFC North