Bitter endings aside, 2023 will ultimately be remembered as the season that Lamar Jackson cemented his long-term future as a franchise quarterback. That development ended on a down note, as the Ravens stalled out when they went with a pass-heavy approach against the Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game, but we saw more than a few high-end offenses struggle against Kansas City’s defense in the playoffs; Jackson showed more than enough this season to suggest he can maintain his new MVP standard moving forward.
The Ravens face some difficult decisions; they are right at the cap for 2025 (per Spotrac) and have two young impact players, defensive tackle Justin Madubuike and linebacker Patrick Queen, hitting free agency. Throw in a new defensive coordinator in Zach Orr, who takes over after Mike Macdonald took the head job in Seattle, and Baltimore could be hard-pressed to match last year’s results on defense. That said, something is always changing in the NFL, and given what we saw from Jackson and offensive coordinator Todd Monken during the coordinator’s first season, Baltimore’s offense should ensure they are back in the thick of the chase to dethrone the Kansas City Chiefs.
Who Stays and Who Goes?
On the surface, it appears that Baltimore could have a mass exodus on defense; with Madubuike and Queen, set to hit the open market along with Jadeveon Clowney, Kyle Van Noy, Malik Harrison, Geno Stone, Arthur Maulet, and Rock Ya-Sin, the Ravens aren’t going to keep everyone.
How many players they do keep will depend on how they approach the rest of the offense. The skill positions are in relatively good shape; receivers Odell Beckham Jr. and Nelson Agholor are slated for free agency, but their top two weapons, tight end Mark Andrews and receiver Zay Flowers, will be back in the fold. The Ravens need to round out their depth, but it isn’t a pressing concern, particularly if running back Keaton Mitchell has made solid progress in his recovery from last year’s ACL by the time free agency rolls around.
Bigger changes loom on the offensive line. As it stands, Baltimore’s top three tackles from 2023 - Ronnie Stanley, Morgan Moses, and Patrick Mekari - are all under contract for 2024, but with the team up against the cap, general manager Eric DeCosta and head coach John Harbaugh will need to decide if they want to move forward with this group given the persistent injury issues they battled through last season.
Cutting Stanley would be the dramatic move; once an All-Pro caliber player, Stanley hasn’t been the same player he was before the injuries started to pile up, and he is on the books for cap hits of $26 million in each of the next two years. The dead cap money would be significant - though it could be spread over multiple years - but the Ravens may elect to swallow that number if they decide they don’t want this much money committed to a player who requires injury insurance. They could also cut Moses or Mekari - either player would offer roughly $5 million in cap savings - but that opens up another hole, assuming that Daniel Faalele does not take a step forward in this third season.
If the Ravens don’t want to lose Madubuike and Queen, an aggressive alternative at offensive tackle would be to cut bait on two of their veterans and target a replacement with the 30th overall pick. It’s a significant gamble, but if I’m a Ravens fan, I’m looking at the optimal outcome as retaining both Madubuike and Queen and seeding the offense line with a young building block, rather than hanging on to an injury-prone offensive tackle group for another year.
Throw in the fact that guards Kevin Zeitler and John Simpson are both free agents, and there are a lot of ways that Baltimore could go on the offensive line; given early reports on the depth of the interior line class, the Ravens could lean hard in that direction and use their first three picks on offensive linemen, which would reset this group around Tyler Linderbaum as the stud center enters the third year of his rookie deal. It’s unlikely, but we need to wait for them to sort out free agency to say how unlikely; if Baltimore is committed to keeping their young core on defense, this would be one way to do it.
Roster Balance Isn’t A Problem - Yet. A Critical Draft Ahead.
The Ravens have had mixed results in recent drafts. 2022 was outstanding, with two blue-chip first-rounders (safety Kyle Hamilton and Linderbaum) and two rotational players (defensive tackle Travis Jones and tight end Isiah Likely), but 2023 is, to date, a one-hit wonder with Zay Jones. Add in the fact that 2021 was a “meh” draft - receiver Rashod Bateman and edge Odafe Oweh are solid values on their fourth-year cap hits of roughly $4 million, but neither is likely to see his fifth-year option picked up - and you have a team that is going to need reinforcements on the surplus cap value front sooner than later.
The Ravens have an extra pick at the end of the 4th Round, giving them 5 picks in the top 135. If they can hit on two quality contributors, they’ll be on solid footing, and a four-player class would put them ahead of the game. That said, the importance of avoiding a duff on this draft can’t be overstated; with the way the NFL is set up, it is almost impossible to build a championship contender around a top-of-market contract quarterback contract without a healthy dose of contracts that generate surplus value, and the best way to acquire those contracts is through the draft.
Getting Over the Top
As disappointing as it was to miss out on this season’s opportunity, head coach John Harbaugh should have his team right back in the thick of things next season. Lamar Jackson is simply too talented for Baltimore not to be a factor; Joe Burrow’s return to Cincinnati will provide a stiffer test in the AFC North, but the Ravens should be game.
Kansas City still looms large, but my guess is that the lessons that Monken and Jackson take from that loss will prove valuable as they build the offense moving forward. We’ve seen what they put together without the benefit of a full offseason; it will be fascinating to see what they roll out in 2024.
Early 2024 Projection: 2nd in AFC North (though I may well flip that, neck and neck with the Bengals from where I’m sitting)