If the 2023 New York Giants weren't the NFL's most disappointing team this season, they were certainly in the thick of the discussion.
Due in large part to concerns about their quality of opponents/wins during the unexpectedly successful 2022 campaign, more than a few folks were skeptical about New York's chances in 2023, but even the most pessimistic of fans would have been hard-pressed to imagine things could go this badly, this quickly.
2022 appeared to have finally brought some good fortune to Giants fans; not only had their franchise quarterback, former 6th overall pick Daniel Jones, gotten back on track, he had done it under an offensive-minded head coach who appeared to check all the boxes. In his first year on the job, Brian Daboll and offensive coordinator Mike Kafka paired to get the most out of a Saquon Barkley-heavy offense while veteran defensive coordinator "Wink" Martindale oversaw the defense. Some were skeptical that Jones would live up to the contract he wound up signing, but at the very least, it appeared that the Giants had the right football decision-makers in place.
A year later, that's out the window. Martindale is no longer the defensive coordinator, and reports suggest that Daboll's sideline blowups were carrying over to behind-the-scenes interactions in the building. Such is life in New York; when you're winning, it's a good place to be, but when you're losing, the spotlight gets bright quick.
The Giants now find themselves once again adrift, with problems to address across the roster.
Problem Set 1: The Defense
This defensive coordinator post has a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde feel to it; on the one hand, there are concerns about the team culture and the head coach, and on the other, there are obvious reasons to be excited about coaching this group.
New York's depth chart is far from a finished product, but four pieces who are slotted in - defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence, edge rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux, linebacker Bobby Okereke, and cornerback Deonte Banks - provide building blocks at critical positions. However the Giants elect to fill in around them, starting with two impact pass rushers, a capable cornerback, and an off-ball linebacker who can run is a good place to be in any scheme. The fact that the defense around them isn't better defined is probably a positive as Daboll makes a decision on his new coordinator, because it gives them the flexibility to pursue the best coach, rather than the best coach who can run their desired scheme.
The Giants don't have unlimited resources this offseason (though they do have an extra 2nd round pick); whether they use some of their projected $27 million in cap space to retain safety Xavier McKinney or cornerback Adoree Jackson will be a point of interest. McKinney played well throughout his rookie deal and hit a high point in his contract year; whether the Giants want to pony up the "Tier 2" contract he is likely to command will depend heavily on how the new defensive coordinator values the safety position in his scheme.
As for Jackson, the veteran cornerback is a starting-caliber player who is likely to sign another deal in the $10–15 million range; whether the Giants feel they can pay that price with the other issues they need to address is a separate question.
Problem Set 2: The Offense Around the Quarterback
In 2022, Saquon Barkley posted an All-Pro-type season, racking up double-digit touchdowns and 4.4 yards per carry, but the Giants decided not to invest in their running back long-term. After a 2023 season that saw Barkley's yards per carry drop to 3.9, it seems unlikely that contract negotiations will go much better this offseason.
It's not the only postion that New York has questions; it appears that the wide receiver depth chart will have more clarity with names like Sterling Shepard set to disappear from the roster, but whether the trio of Darius Slayton, Wan'Dale Robinson, and Jalin Hyatt will move the needle is another question. The three receivers do play complementary styles, which sets this up to be a good room if they can add a number one to the fold…but that's a big if.
Tight end Darren Waller would, in theory, fill that role, but injuries have derailed the ultra-athletic tight end's career in recent years. The size and speed are still there when his body is right, but Waller's possible outcomes are as variable as anyone in the NFL at this point; with his talent, he could have another impact season left, but with the way his contract is structured, he could also wind up getting cut.
If that were the end of New York's problems, the situation would seem more salvageable, but the skill positions are arguably the bright points on New York's offense. The offensive line cobbled together solid results in 2022, but 2023 was a disaster. Left tackle Andrew Thomas can be expected to rebound to form as an impact player, but while injuries prevented Thomas from playing to his previous standard, New York's two other big investments on the offensive line, right tackle Evan Neal (1st Rd, 2022) and center John Michael Schmitz (2nd Rd, 2023) have struggled with injuries and failed to play at a starting-caliber standard when they are on the field. Throw in the fact that veteran guard Mark Glowinski, who is signed to a mid-tier contract at roughly $7 million for the year, only suited up for 60% of the snaps last year, and there are more than a few reasons to be concerned about whether this team can protect Daniel Jones in his return from last year's season-ending injuries.
Problem Set 3: The Quarterback
Daniel Jones was not the only thing wrong with the Giants' offense in 2023, but he sure didn't help anything.
2022 was a significant step forward for Jones relative to his career to date at that point, but those results came within a very defined structure; the Giants relied heavily on Barkley's presence to establish the offense, then took advantage of Jones's mobility, particularly in the play-action game, to set up the rest of the offense.
There's nothing wrong with that, but when you're paying a quarterback over $40 million per year, you expect him to be able to change gears and make up for some errors when everything isn't right around him, and Jones was unable to do that this season.
Jones will now try to get his game right as he returns from the torn ACL that ended his season, along with any lingering effects from the back and neck injuries that sidelined him before the knee injury. With a recovery-focused offseason ahead and limited resources to upgrade the situation around him, the odds for Jones and the Giants to replicate the success of 2022 appear to be rather long, though his supporters might point out that was also true before 2022.
The Optimistic Outlook?
The 2024 NFL Draft is touted to be heavy on offensive linemen and receivers, which plays to New York's benefit. Ohio State receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. may be out of their reach at 6th overall, but LSU's Malik Nabers and Washington's Romeo Odunze are also drawing a lot of love at the receiver position, and if GM Joe Schoen sees a way to shuffle the offensive line that fits with one of the top prospects, various draft analysts are very high on Notre Dame's Joe Alt, Penn State's Olumuyiwa Fashanu, and Oregon State's Taliese Fuaga.
If Schoen hits it out of the park with the 6th pick, then turns the 39th and 47th picks into an impact player and a solid starter, New York's roster could look markedly different than it does at present. Their financial situation - not to mention the likely lack of top-end talent on the open market by the time we hit free agency - won't allow the Giants to revamp this group through free agency, but a big-time draft class could alter their trajectory.
Short of that, the Giants may need to let the Daniel Jones contract burn out and avoid making the sorts of financial commitments that former GM Dave Gettleman made at the end of his tenure, which forced Schoen and Daboll to start their roster-building process behind the eight-ball from a resources standpoint.
Daboll's first season bought him enough credit to run it back in 2024, but that's likely to be as far as it will go. Jones's contract contains a potential out after 2024, and if the Giants elect to go in a different direction at quarterback, it would not surprise to see a different GM and head coach combo at the helm for that transition.
Early 2024 Projection: 4th in NFC East