The Raiders Have the GM and Head Coach; Now Who Plays Quarterback?
NFL Offseason Roster Review #13
There are not a lot of positive things to say about the Josh McDaniels era in Las Vegas, but one silver lining is that, outside of the Jimmy Garoppolo contract, McDaniels did not leave the organization in a bad place from either a salary cap or draft pool perspective. In fact, with the way the team rallied under new head coach Antonio Pierce, the Raiders are on steady footing as they move forward into the next era. They probably need an upgrade at quarterback, which is an obvious concern, but Las Vegas has $45 million in cap space and a full slate of draft picks, including the 13th overall selection, to address that spot.
Whoever lines up under center for the Raiders next year will have several factors working in his favor; Davante Adams is still an elite receiver, Jakobi Meyers was one of the NFL’s better #2 options in his first season with Las Vegas, the shifty Hunter Renfrow got back in the mix once Pierce took back over, and Michael Mayer showed promise as a two-way tight end during his rookie campaign. The offensive line has several question marks, but the pieces they do have in place - left tackle Kolton Miller and left guard Dylan Parham - are pieces that any team in the NFL would want at their current cap hits.
Las Vegas faces an uphill battle in the AFC West because Patrick Mahomes plays for the Chiefs, but as talented as the division and conference may be, this team can certainly push for a playoff spot next season. But first, they need to figure out the quarterback position.
Reading the Tea Leaves: The Luke Getsy Hire
As excited as I am about certain aspects of the Las Vegas roster, the idea of Kliff Kingsbury heading up the offense struck me as more appealing than turning to former Bears offensive coordinator Luke Getsy. Kingsbury isn’t perfect - Arizona’s offense seemed to devolve during his last season at the helm - but at least he has shown a willingness to adapt his offense to his quarterback’s skill set.
Getsy, on the other hand, consistently created the impression that he did NOT want to work with a run threat at quarterback during his time coaching Justin Fields. It was strange enough to see Getsy keep Fields hemmed in the pocket during their first season together, but after opening things up resulted in significantly more success down the stretch in 2022, it was downright bizarre to see Chicago open 2023 right back where they had started 2022; it was as if Chicago’s coaching staff had collective amnesia.
To Getsy’s credit, the Bears did get back to leveraging the threat Fields presents as a runner, but from the outside looking in, it’s difficult to understand Getsy’s process. Every coordinator in the NFL says that they are going to tailor their scheme to their personnel, but some do it better than others, and in his first go around at the OC position, Getsy appeared to be overly attached to his idea of how offensive football should be played.
If he gets the right quarterback, that won’t matter, and maybe Getsy learned from this most recent season, but I would have some level of trepidation if Las Vegas ended up with a dual threat at quarterback. Aidan O’Connell should fit what Getsy wants to do, but while the former Boilermaker showed that he is likely to have a long future in the NFL during his rookie season, he looks more like a high-end backup as opposed to a player a franchise will build around; Gardner Minshew might be an apt comparison.
Things change fast in the NFL, and Getsy could shift gears, but now that he’s the offensive coordinator, Raiders fans might rest easier if the team goes with a more traditional option at quarterback.
The X-Factor: Jimmy Garoppolo
In a vacuum, an organization might decide to pursue Kirk Cousins, Ryan Tannehill, Jacoby Brissett, Baker Mayfield, or Gardner Minshew as an alternative to Jimmy Garoppolo.
The Raiders aren’t operating in a vacuum, however; Jimmy Garoppolo is on the books for two more seasons (with two void years beyond that) and cutting him would result in a dead cap hit of $28 million.
Garoppolo’s first year with the Raiders went poorly, which is likely due at least in part to his being joined at the hip to Josh McDaniels, but now that McDaniels is gone, the organization may have a new perspective on things. Garoppolo is, by all accounts, popular with his teammates, and given how he has handled other difficult situations in his career - namely, getting benched during the 2022 offseason, then stepping back in when Trey Lance broke his leg - he does not seem the type to hold a grudge.
Recency bias can cloud our judgment, but if we’re throwing the dice for 2024, Garoppolo’s outcome distribution probably doesn’t look dramatically different than any of the free-agent quarterbacks; he made the Super Bowl as part of a talented 49ers team, but he still made it to the Super Bowl. His persistent injury issues are a concern, but two of the top options on that list, Kirk Cousins and Ryan Tannehill, have dealt with their own injuries in recent seasons.
If the Raiders decide they want to start fresh given how last season went, that’s fair, but the idea of keeping Garoppolo, and not having to put a second veteran quarterback on the books, seems far more plausible after looking at their cap situation; coming into this article, I took it for granted he would be cut, but while that is still possible (and likely probable), there might still be a chance.
What About Draft Night?
Let’s go ahead and assume that, in light of the Luke Getsy hire, the Raiders would not be in the market if the Bears decide to pick at #1 and trade Justin Fields.
That leaves a trade up to #1 - which the Raiders are in a solid position to swing - or targeting a quarterback in what is currently looked at as the second group of quarterbacks: Oregon’s Bo Nix, Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy, and Washington’s Michael Penix Jr.
Should they go the latter route, new general manager Tom Telesco would face an interesting decision: does he lock his guy in with the 13th overall pick, try to wait it out at 44, or split the difference and trade up from the middle of the second round to the back of the first or top of the second? It will all depend on which quarterback the Raiders target, and how that player fares in the draft process between now and Draft Night.
Roster Needs
Las Vegas needs to round out their roster on the offensive and defensive lines - they don’t have many players under contract - but with Miller leading the offensive side and MADD Maxx Crosby heading up the defense, the Raiders need depth, rather than a War Daddy, which is a far easier need to fill.
The Raiders return the bulk of the back end of their defense - linebackers Robert Spillane and Divine Deablo return for another year, as do the safety tandem of Trevon Moehrig and Marcus Epps and slot cornerback Nate Hobbs - and with the contributions they got from cornerback Jack Jones after New England cut him, the Raiders is in good shape in the back end for 2024. As a bonus, almost all of these players are signed to one-year deals, so Telesco and Pierce can take a collaborative approach in deciding who they want to sign to the squad for the long term.
A final name to note is running back Josh Jacobs, who is once again set to hit free agency; given that the Raiders have over $40 million in cap space and backs aren’t breaking the bank, Jacobs could certainly be back in Las Vegas.
The word to best describe Las Vegas’s situation is flexible - they have three high-end players at cornerstone positions (receiver Davante Adams, left tackle Kolton Miller, and defensive end Maxx Crosby) - and little set in stone beyond that. Telesco and Pierce will have to build it from here, but at least they are working from a sound foundation.
Early 2024 Projection: 3rd in AFC West