Of all the things I’ve written over the years, I’m not sure I’ve offered up a dumber statement than “The 2022 Eagles laid out the blueprint for how to maximize a run threat at quarterback; expect this approach to spread across the NFL in 2023.”
Much like Mario Puzo’s writing The Godfather did not prevent future writers from using shoddy prose, Philadelphia’s success in 2022 did not prevent teams from misusing run-first quarterbacks; in fact, it seems that even the other coaches on Philly’s staff didn’t understand why Shane Steichen was doing what he was doing when he was doing it.
That’s been Indy’s gain and Philly’s loss; as Steichen nearly led the Colts to the playoffs with Gardner Minshew at the helm, the Eagles lost their identity, going from a run-first team to an operation that seemed obsessed with the dropback passing game.
It was exceptionally confusing to watch from 10,000 feet up, but it was also a reminder that Philly’s offense didn’t take off with Jalen Hurts at quarterback until Steichen took over play-calling duties back in 2021. Once he took over, Steichen started pressing the advantage created by Hurts’s mobility at every opportunity, using his quarterback’s unique traits to dictate the terms of engagement to the defense; results quickly followed.
The foundation of this approach was the idea that if, on early downs, the defense did not bring down an extra man to account for Hurts in the run game, and effectively left themselves a man short, the Eagles would run the ball. That’s not to say it was 100%, but Steichen pressed the advantage often enough to force defensive coordinators to play his way; to use a fighting analogy, if they protected the head, he took the open body shot. And when the Eagles had success running the ball, and forced the defense to bring a man down - or, to go back to the analogy, to drop their hands - Philly would take their headshots.
The 2023 Eagles lacked that feel from the get-go. It showed up against the Vikings in Week 2, when it took them until the second half to really lean into their advantage in the run game; the 2022 Eagles would have figured that out immediately, and the theme of leaning more pass-heavy continued throughout the season. This often showed up on “inconsequential” plays, but from where I’m sitting, the root of the issues was that Philadelphia seemed much more inclined to pass up runs into advantageous boxes in “neutral” situations such as 2nd and 6.
As a result, they wound up throwing headshots when the opponent’s hands were up, and an ultra-talented offense looked like a shell of itself. Throw in the debacle on defense, where Sean Desai was replaced with Matt Patricia partway through his first season with the team, and you wind up with Philly’s lackluster playoff exit.
Now the Eagles will deal with another offseason of change, with Kellen Moore taking over as offensive coordinator as Vic Fangio steps into the defensive coordinator role. Fangio’s experience consulting with the team in 2022 should make for a good fit; whether Moore can maximize Hurts’s talents will remain an open question until the season, as the quarterbacks Moore has worked with in previous years brought different skill sets to the table.
Fixing the Back End; Can the Defense Reload?
Philadelphia’s fortunes in the back end of the defense took an unfortunate downturn from 2022 to 2023, but despite last year’s disappointment, I would expect the Eagles to stick with their roster-building philosophy moving forward. Under general manager Howie Roseman, the Eagles have consistently taken a volume approach up the spine of their defense, gambling on trades, low-cost free agents, and mid-round draft picks to fill out the roster at inside linebacker and safety.
For reasons ranging from injuries to underwhelming play, those bets didn’t pay off in 2023, but that doesn’t mean the approach is invalid. The Eagles load up at certain positions and live with the reality that they need to hit on lower-probability gambles at certain spots; every other team is operating in the same paradigm, but some of them are playing whack-a-mole with the positions they try to address. Roseman is taking a different approach, and placing his biggest bets at the highest-leverage positions.
To that end, Philadelphia can hope for better health from inside linebacker Nakobe Dean and safety Sydney Brown, who is currently recovering from a torn ACL. The Eagles have $20 million in cap space (per Spotrac) and the ability to clear out an extra $13 million if they cut Kevin Byard, who they acquired from Tennessee in a midseason trade, so they could supplement these position rooms with veteran help, but it seems more likely to be of the low-cost variety than a headline news signing. With an extra 2nd-round pick in hand, the Eagles could also add some talent to the mix on Day 2 of the NFL Draft; it’s hard to imagine them using their 1st-round pick at linebacker or safety, though a cornerback could certainly be in the mix given that Darius Slay and James Bradberry aren’t getting any younger.
Another question of interest will be whether Nolan Smith, Philadelphia’s second 1st-round pick in 2023, will have a clearer path to the field in 2024. Haason Reddick and Josh Sweat are both entering the final year of their respective contracts, so the path to a more prominent edge-rushing role opens up after this season, but in the meantime, it would be interesting to see if Smith can transition to off-ball linebacker. It’s a significant transition, but without all the draft hoopla, Smith has plenty of time to focus on his craft, and there were more than a few NFL draft analysts who thought his athletic traits would allow him to be an outstanding off-ball linebacker.
The Eagles may also need to replace two faces of the franchise, defensive tackle Fletcher Cox and defensive end Brandon Graham. Both have operated in rotational roles in recent seasons, but like center Jason Kelce, their presence has a weight to it. As evidenced by their last three first-round picks, Philadelphia is always open to using their first-round pick on a defensive lineman - the pass rusher position is one of the “big money” tables in that crapshoot - but given their recent investments in the position, look for them to build depth with some of their lower-probability rolls of the dice later in the draft.
Chasing Kelce; Life Without Their Center?
Running back D’Andre Swift is set to be a free agent, but outside of him, the one player set to move on from Philadelphia’s offense is longtime center Jason Kelce. Kelce’s theoretical replacement, 2022 2nd-rounder Cam Jurgens, is already on the roster, but as we saw with Philadelphia’s transition from right guard Isaac Seumalo to a combination of Jurgens and 2023 3rd-rounder Tyler Steen, these things don’t always go as planned.
If there is any sort of hiccup in the transition, it makes it all the more important that the Eagles get back to consistently leveraging Hurts as a run threat. The indecision created when Hurts is used as a run threat - not necessarily a volume runner, but a consistent run threat - makes life easier on the offensive linemen, who can take advantage of the hesitation that creates in the defense. It’s not a cure-all, but it’s an easier life than consistently dropping back in pass protection.
The Eagles still have a massive amount of talent on this offense; setbacks aside, Jalen Hurts continued to show off a vastly improved arm in 2024, so while the Eagles need to put him in more advantageous situations, it’s not as if he regressed to where he was as a passer during his rookie season. Even so, Hurts’s enhanced ability to execute the dropback passing game doesn’t mean that Philadelphia should make that their foundational approach.
An apt comparison is the Ravens with Lamar Jackson; Jackson’s ability as a passer is night and day from his rookie season, when he was winning games with his talent as a runner, but the consensus on this year’s AFC Championship Game seems to be that Baltimore did themselves a grave disservice by taking such a one-dimensional approach against Kansas City’s defense.
Head kicks and knockout punches get on the highlight reel, but they don’t happen in a vacuum; assuming your opponent is a competent defender, you need the jab to set up the big punches. And for a team with a run-first quarterback, that jab isn’t some sort of “inefficient” attack; the punch is stiff enough that you might break your opponent’s nose.
Moving on from Kelce will be a transition, but with or without him, there is an awful lot of talent on this offense. Whether or not the Eagles can maximize it in 2024 is a different question.
Early 2024 Projection: 1st in NFC East (Washington could break through with a great offseason…but if it’s Dallas and Philly, it will somehow go back to Philly; that’s the NFC East)