Changing of the Guard? A New Cowboys Era, With or Without Dak Prescott
NFL Offseason Roster Review #24
Perhaps it’s just me getting older, but it seems incredible to think how many versions of the Dallas Cowboys there have been with Dak Prescott at quarterback.
There was the rookie contract phase, when Prescott bailed out a Dallas team in dire financial straits after franchise quarterback Tony Romo went down. Then there was the Carson Wentz debate, the franchise tag debate, the broken ankle, the big contract, and the playoff losses that have come since that deal.
It all brings us to another decision point; 2024 is the final year of Prescott’s current deal, and with a $61 million cap hit on the books, the easiest way for the Cowboys, who are currently $15 million over the cap (per Spotrac), would be to extend their franchise quarterback.
Based on regular season results, that would be an easy decision - for both Prescott and head coach Mike McCarthy - but owner Jerry Jones is not looking for regular season results at this stage in the game.
If Prescott is going to lift a Lombardi with the Cowboys, it will be with a far different group than the one he started with in Dallas. Longtime left tackle Tyron Smith is an unrestricted free agent. Two other stalwarts - right guard Zack Martin and defensive end Demarcus Lawrence - are in a similar contractual situation to Prescott, entering the final year of their deals and slated for significant cap hits (Martin’s hit is $28.5, Lawrence is $20.4).
Jerry and Stephen Jones need to navigate all of this as they carve out room to extend receiver CeeDee Lamb and edge rusher Micah Parsons, who are both in the discussion as the best players in the NFL at their respective positions as they near the end of their rookie contracts. On the one hand, it’s a positive to have drafted players of this caliber at two of the four most expensive position groups (excluding quarterbacks); on the other hand, building a roster around their market-value contracts instead of around the surplus cap value the old contracts created is a very different equation.
What comes next in Dallas? We’ll try to read the tea leaves, starting with the quarterback position.
Does Dallas Extend Dak?
In postseason comments, Jerry Jones has indicated that Prescott is still the Cowboys’ quarterback moving forward.
You can see both sides of the debate; even a harsh critic of Prescott’s game would have to concede that he has had some phenomenal regular-season performances in his career, and that he has above-average physical traits at the position. (Perhaps “have to” isn’t true in the context of NFL fandom on X…but most reasonable minds would agree Dak has had some good moments).
At the same time, Prescott’s greatest supporters can’t claim that he’s gotten it done come playoff time; as it stands, Prescott is 2-5 in the NFL Playoffs, and his mistakes have played a significant role in Dallas’s last two playoff exits.
It leaves the roster-builders in Dallas in an uncertain place; it’s over the top to suggest Prescott can’t lead this team to a Super Bowl, but different people would have different answers for how probable it is, and whether they really want to continue putting their chips on his square when his new contract would once again come in near the top of the market.
When it’s all said and done, I can’t imagine ol’ Jerry hitting the reset button, and if you’re signing up for one go-round with Prescott, you might as well sign up for three, and max out that window.
Is the Draft Machine Still Rolling?
Whatever else you have to say about the Cowboys, it’s hard to argue they can’t draft. There are a few whiffs, but if you look at the players they’ve drafted in the first round since they took receiver Dez Bryant back in 2010, there are more All-Pros than misses.
The 2023 class is still up in the air, but as two mid-round picks from 2022, tight end Jake Ferguson and cornerback DaRon Bland, showed this season, the full impact of a rookie class isn’t always felt in the first season. It remains to be seen if defensive tackle Mazi Smith and tight end Luke Schoonmaker, their 1st and 2nd-round picks in 2023, develop into impact players, but with offensive lineman Tyler Smith bearing the flag for the 2022 class, the Cowboys still have contracts with projected future surplus value even as CeeDee Lamb and Micah Parsons approach the end of their rookie deals.
That said, the relatively underwhelming results from the 2023 class in Year One puts more pressure on Dallas to get some hits in the upcoming class; with Tyron Smith and center Tyler Biadasz slated for free agency, there are two spots on the offensive line, there is a hole in the middle of the defense with inside linebacker Leighton Vander Esch’s career in limbo after last year’s neck injury, and lead running back Tony Pollard is once again hitting free agency after playing on the franchise tag last season.
All things considered, I’d bet on Dallas hitting on another first-rounder this season; with a prospect pool that features offensive tackles, wide receivers, and a variety of defenders who could fit the direction that new coordinator Mike Zimmer decides to take.
Positions of Need
At first glance, the Cowboys don’t have a glaring need at receiver, but the situation is more fluid than it might appear.
Cutting Michael Gallup would not result in a huge cap savings in 2024 - he would be a wash as a straight cut - but Dallas needs to keep a three-year window in mind, and cutting Gallup now would open up a significant amount of savings over the remainder of his current contract, which runs through 2026. It’s a shame, because Gallup would have been a solid value on his deal at his pre-injury form, but the decision to sign him to a five-year pact before he returned to the field has not worked out.
The situation is more straightforward on the offensive line, where they have obvious needs and should have options - NFL.com’s Daniel Jeremiah has offensive linemen at 16, 17, 18, 31, 33, and 35 on his initial Top 50 - but there’s plenty of time between now and April. If the Cowboys elect to extend Zack Martin - who is 33, but coming off three straight 1st Team All-Pro selections - then they might find the space to bring back Biadasz on a mid-level veteran contract and keep Smith in the fold on a one-year pact.
That could also free up draft resources to reshape the defense to Zimmer’s vision, which might be very different than the one Dan Quinn has implemented over the past few seasons. Zimmer has had two years off to evolve his approach, but his defenses in Minnesota and Cincinnati played a distinctly different style than what they have recently played in Dallas, so it will be interesting to see where he finds a middle ground. For instance, while Zimmer’s defenses are typically synonymous with big defensive ends, I doubt he got the job without a great plan for Micah Parsons.
The same may not be true of the back end; Zimmer’s safeties have typically been interchangeable, so Malik Hooker, who is more of a pure free safety, may not fit as smoothly into this system as the old one. It’s all up in the air depending on Zimmer’s perspective, but if he feels that cornerback DaRon Bland’s style, which resulted in an NFL-record number of pick-sixes but brought certain trade-offs, we could see the Cowboys surprise and go cornerback with their first-round pick.
All in all, the Cowboys are likely to be on the lower end of turnover among the NFL’s teams. Barring an unexpected surprise, it will be largely the same cast of characters back in Big D next season; whether or not that is a good thing is up to you.
Early 2024 Projection: 2nd in NFC East (As it stands, I think they should go into the season as the favorite…but when does anyone repeat as NFC East Champs? Call me crazy, but I’d like Washington to win over Dallas based on that alone, no matter how things look in August.)