Free agent week is upon us! Deals should start rolling across the wire, so I wanted to get out ahead of the game and clear out my transaction log, because there are going to be plenty of moves rolling across Spotrac today. This article will touch on the following players…
QB Baker Mayfield (re-signs TB, 3 years, $100 million)
QB Russell Wilson (signs PIT, 1 year, $1.2 million)
QB Mac Jones (traded from NE to JAX for 6th-round pick)
WR Jerry Jeudy (traded from DEN to CLE for 5th, 6th round picks)
WR Kendrick Bourne (re-signs NE, 3 years, $19.5 million)
TE Hunter Henry (re-signs NE, 3 years, $27 million)
TE Jonnu Smith (signs MIA, 2 years, ?)
RG Kevin Dotson (re-signs LAR, 3 years, $48 million)
LG Ezra Cleveland (re-signs JAX, 3 years, $24 million)
RT Colton McGivitz (re-signs SF, 1 year, $7 million)
RT Mike McGlinchey (re-structure, DEN)
DT Chris Jones (re-signs KC, 5 years, $158.75 million)
DT Arik Armstead (cut, SF)
DT Foley Fatukasi (signs HOU, 1 year, ?)
LB De’Vondre Campbell (cut, GB)
LB Drue Tranquill (re-sign KC, 3 years, $19 million)
S Tyrann Mathieu (re-structure/extension NO, 2 years, $13.8 million)
S Kevin Byard (signs CHI, 2 years, $15 million)
S Tarvarius Moore (signs CHI)
S Chuck Clark (re-signs NYJ, 1 year, ?)
CB Desmond King (re-signs HOU, 1 year, $1.8 million)
CB Isaiah Oliver (signs NYJ, 1 year, ?)
*All numbers from Spotrac; some contract details have yet to be released.
Let’s get into it!
The Quarterbacks
The Buccaneers made a long-term-ish commitment to Baker Mayfield at quarterback; now they have to keep up the roster around him. Tampa Bay is in a strong position in the NFC South pending what the Falcons do - the Saints have dealt themselves out of the game for multiple years with their salary structure, and the Panthers traded a King’s Ransom for a quarterback who had notable accuracy issues from Week One on top of his lack of size - but whether or not the Buccaneers are a championship contender as they shed former stars like edge rusher Shaq Barrett remains an open question.
Pittsburgh gets a potential upgrade in former Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson. Due to the offsets in Wilson’s old contract, Denver is essentially paying him to play this year - any extra money that Wilson received from Pittsburgh, he wouldn’t get from Denver, hence the $1.2 million - and Wilson gets to join a quality roster. It’s hard to say what Wilson has left - his once-dynamic athleticism isn’t what it was - but Pittsburgh’s current quarterback, Kenny Pickett, has always struck me as a very conservative player within the passing concepts he is presented. That could improve with Arthur Smith taking over as offensive coordinator, but I can pull more than a few clips where I would lay money an Aaron Rodgers or Josh Allen makes a different throw within the concept, regardless of what the dearly departed Matt Canada might have called.
In any case, the Steelers have quality talent at the skill positions, appear intent on upgrading the talent on the offensive line (based on cuts of players like Mason Cole and Chukwuma Okorafor), and still have plenty of studs to build around on defense; they should be a well-rounded team next season.
The Mac Jones trade caps off a tough fall from his rookie season, but he isn’t the first quarterback with similar traits to see an arc like this; we could point to the first quarterback we discussed, Baker Mayfield, as an example of a player whose fortunes have changed during his time in the NFL. Jones lacks big-time traits, and that will always mean he needs certain things around him, but while I’ve never been big on him as “the guy”, he’s not a throwaway, and could wind up competing for a starting job after a year of focusing on his game behind Trevor Lawrence in Jacksonville.
Jerry Jeudy
2023 wasn’t as impressive, but I thought Jeudy was OUTSTANDING in 2022; the counting stats often didn’t show it, because Russell Wilson was leaving an awful lot of big-play opportunities on the field, but Jeudy was uncovering at all three levels of the field and could have pushed for 1,000 yards and 10 TDs with better ball placement. That might continue to be a problem with Deshaun Watson slinging it to him, but if Watson regains his old standard, this trade could wind up making Denver fans even more upset than they are already likely to be in 2024.
The Patriots
New England will need to make more moves to up the explosiveness at the skill spots, but they retain two reliable players in Kendrick Bourne and Hunter Henry. Still, if they do draft a quarterback at #3, it will help to have two veteran pass-catchers who can run reliable routes for whoever takes over at signal-caller.
The Offensive Linemen
Rams guard Kevin Dotson and Jaguars guard Ezra Cleveland were big winners after being traded to their respective organizations last season. Dotson, who didn’t develop for the Pittsburgh Steelers, now forms a terrific guard tandem with Steve Avila, a 2023 2nd-rounder whose surplus cap value helps create space to sign Dotson to a deal that lands in the top half of the NFL’s guards by annual value. Cleveland’s deal is a bit more difficult to parse; he’s cheaper, but the Jaguars weren’t all that good on the offensive line last season, and while the blame isn’t on Cleveland’s shoulders, they are already contract-committed to multiple players on a line where something needs to change.
Colton McGivitz isn’t the best pass protector, but he was good enough for the 49ers to be one of the NFL’s best offenses last season; his re-signing provides stability at a key position for a reasonable price. The same can not be said of former 49er Mike McGlinchey; he is in the top half of the NFL by average annual value, but had a rough go out of the gates for Denver last year, where the pass protection struggles he showed in San Francisco continued to show up. That said, the Broncos are restructuring his deal and pushing money into the future, an indication that Sean Payton is not going to slow down whether or not that blew up in his face from a roster-building perspective in Year One of his Denver tenure.
The Crown Jewel
How can the Chiefs afford to keep Chris Jones?
The surplus value all over the rest of the roster.
Kansas City did a great job flipping receiver Tyreek Hill for picks that have hit in a BIG way, and with players like cornerback Trent McDuffie and defensive end George Karlaftis under contract for two more years plus a fifth-year option, the Chiefs have wiggle room around the Patrick Mahomes contract.
This move isn’t made in a vacuum - the Chiefs are looking to flip star cornerback L’Jarius Sneed for picks - and that process allows them to pay top-of-market prices at other spots on the roster. It also helps that “tight end” Travis Kelce, who is one of the NFL’s best pass-catchers, gets paid as a tight end, and not a receiver, which creates substantial savings on one of their key players.
The Rest of the Defenders
I like the addition of Foley Fatukasi in Houston - he’s not a game-changer, but he’s a steady presence against the run - and would like it even more if the rumors that Christian Wilkins will be playing next to him prove to be true. Throw in the re-signings of slot corner Desmond King and safety Eric Murray, and the Texans are building some solid depth on that side of the ball.
Similar things can be said about the Jets, who re-signed Chuck Clark and added Isaiah Oliver; Clark missed last season due to injury and Oliver will be a backup behind Michael Carter, but adding depth now allows them to use their mid-round picks on a deep receiver class.
The Bears went a bit more top-shelf by adding veteran safety Kevin Byard, but $7.5 million is hardly breaking the bank. However, the addition of Byard and Tarvarius Moore to go with current starter Jaquan Brisker means that Chicago will enter the draft with no obvious holes on the defensive side of the ball.
For any Packers fans who say the team didn’t go all-in with Aaron Rodgers, the cut of De’Vondre Campbell, who signed a 5-year extension heading into 2022, will have his dead cap hit spread over the next two years. It doesn’t matter too much because Green Bay has arguably the most talent in the NFL on rookie contracts, but it is a reminder this team went for it. They even “won” free agency one year, but unlike teams that constantly miss on free agents and hand out new, flashy contracts, the Packers hit on Za’Darius Smith, Preston Smith, Billy Turner, and Adrian Amos; given that they already had players like Aaron Rodgers and David Bakhtiari on the roster, that meant that handing out another $100 million the next offseason was not an option.
San Francisco’s roster is officially in transition with the release of defensive tackle Arik Armstead; apparently, Brock Purdy’s surplus value doesn’t allow the 49ers to do anything they want. On a more serious note, this is a tough loss; Armstead has never been a “blue” (elite) player in my book, but he has been “purple” (plus/impact) every year that I can remember. With players like receiver Brandon Aiyuk moving off his rookie contract, this type of move is inevitable, but we may have already seen the “peak” version of this San Francisco team in terms of overall roster talent.
The last move of note is the Saints extending Tyrann Mathieu, which fits with everything else they do in New Orleans but would make no sense whatsoever anywhere else. The idea that New Orleans needs a 32-year-old safety on a roster that is taking on water fast is strange, but no less bizarre than the idea that they needed to sign Nathan Shepherd to a deal with void years. Hopefully the Saints exceed expectations this year, because Mickey Loomis is making it harder and harder for the Saints to compete in 2025, 2026, and 2027 so that they might compete for a playoff spot in 2024.
What’s Next?
Look out for more updates as free agency rolls along; in the meantime, you can check out my Roster Reset series at The ESSENTIAL NFL Newsletter to catch up on each team’s situation heading into the week!