NFL Team Outlooks Post-Free Agency: Teams 17-24
The free agency deals that will be signed ahead of the NFL Draft have been signed, and with the dust (briefly) settled, it’s a good time to assess the state of each franchise. This won’t be as in-depth as the “State of the Franchise” series I did earlier in the offseason, which you can check out at The ESSENTIAL NFL Newsletter.
In the interest of hitting all 32 teams, I’m going to go in order of original first-round picks; in other words, even though the Bears have the first overall pick, I talked about the Panthers in that spot. I’ll also do a loose Mock Draft where I suggest a few options for this team, but that’s more an afterthought; this is about the state of each team rather than evaluations of the draft prospects, so I want to section my attention accordingly.
Let’s get into it!
17. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jacksonville Jaguars enjoyed a brief resurgence in their first year under head coach Doug Pederson, but it’s getting increasingly difficult to see how general manager Trent Baalke’s plan will allow this team to improve in 2024.
On offense, there’s every reason to expect last year’s offensive line struggles to continue; Mitch Morse should be an upgrade over Luke Fortner, who had some rough moments during his second season, but the 32-year-old Morse is not the same player he was five years ago, and while continuity could help, there’s not much room for the other players to improve. Right guard Brandon Scherff, like Morse, is not the same player entering his age-32 season as he was at his peak, and if either declines, Jacksonville could have real problems; a full season out of Cam Robinson at left tackle would help, but I’d say Robinson and left guard Ezra Cleveland are more solid than game-changers, and while right tackle Anton Harrison wasn’t a problem during his rookie season, my take was that he profiles as a solid starter rather than a game-changer on the line (assuming he can get more consistent).
The receiving situation is also markedly worse after Calvin Ridley departed for Tennessee; it wasn’t perfect with Ridley in his first year back on the field, but to say he was their most dynamic weapon on the outside is an understatement. They replace him with another former Bill in Gabe Davis, who has had some huge games, but is a far more limited route runner than Ridley, which is why Davis was never able to emerge as a consistent second option behind Stefon Diggs; if his role in the gameplan clicks, Davis will tear you apart with his length and long speed, but there’s also a reason he can disappear at times.
In other words, the Jags have multiple needs on offense, and that’s without getting to a defense that could use some upgrades in the secondary. The outside cornerback spot across from Tyson Campbell would seem to be a priority, but it’s also hard to imagine exactly how this offense is going to improve without an upgrade at outside receiver.
Mock Draft Thought: WR or CB; LSU’s Brian Thomas is the consensus fourth receiver and could be available here, while one of the draft’s top two corner prospects, Alabama’s Terrion Arnold and Toledo’s Quinyon Mitchell, could also be available.
18. Cincinnati Bengals
Tee Higgins might not be happy about receiving the franchise tag, but his unhappiness aside, it has been a solid offseason in Cincinnati. The Bengals didn’t break the bank, but they did add several useful players at important spots.
Joe Mixon is the bigger name, but at this stage in their careers, I’d prefer to have Zack Moss running the ball regardless of cost, and Moss is joining the Bengals on a two-year deal with a cap hit of $3 million in Year One and a minimal dead cap hit in Year Two if things don’t work out. Similarly, while Tyler Boyd put together a decorated career with the Bengals, I’m interested to see how “tight end” Mike Gesicki fits in as Cincinnati’s “big slot” receiver; it wouldn’t be a one-to-one replacement, but if Gesicki meshes with quarterback Joe Burrow, we could see Cincinnati’s offense put more of an emphasis on the tight end, as well as what we might call “fake 12” personnel (whatever his position designation, my guess is defenses either count Gesicki as a receiver or under a special designation in their counts). It will also be fascinating to see how Trent Brown looks as a bookend tackle across from Orlando Brown Jr.; Trent brings a concerning injury history, but if healthy, there will be a long trip around the hoop on either side of the Cincinnati line.
On defense, Cincinnati guarded against some of the issues they had at safety last season by bringing back Vonn Bell and signing Geno Stone in free agency. They still need development from DJ Turner, but with Cam Taylor-Britt at one outside spot and Mike Hilton in the slot, the Bengals are in fairly solid shape in the back end. Throw in the addition of Sheldon Rankins, who played solid ball for Houston last season, to replace D.J. Reader at defensive tackle, and there isn’t a glaring weakness in Cincinnati’s starting lineup.
It sets them up to take a “best player available” approach in the draft. With the way the board stacks up, there should be at least one highly touted offensive tackle available, which would make sense given the injury concerns with Trent Brown. However, this could also be a landing spot for Georgia tight end Brock Bowers or LSU receiver Brian Thomas; given that all indications are that Cincinnati will move on from Tee Higgins after this season, it wouldn’t hurt to add a talented receiver who can make an impact in Year One and take on an expanded role behind Ja’Marr Chase in Year Two. At the same time, this could be a landing spot for a defensive lineman or a cornerback; given the mix of opinions on those prospects, it’s entirely possible that the top player on Cincinnati’s board at defensive tackle, edge rusher, and cornerback will all be available when they make this pick.
Mock Draft Thought: Set up to take best player available.
19. Los Angeles Rams
For a team as good as they are at developing interior offensive linemen, the Rams sure spent a lot of money on the guard tandem of Jonah Jackson and Kevin Dotson. I don’t think it’s a bad move - it certainly sets them up to have a dominant offense - but I do think it was curious given that they still need a significant injection of talent on defense, particularly as they transition away from former defensive coordinator Raheem Morris, who drew rave reviews for his creative work with last year’s group before he took the head job in Atlanta. I understand the appeal of adding Jackson, and Dotson certainly earned his contract last season, but it wouldn’t have surprised me to see the Rams spend on, say, defensive end Jonathan Greenard or defensive tackle Christian Wilkins, and gambling that they could keep developing contributors on the interior line.
That said, the Rams have made the moves they’ve made, and with Aaron Donald headed for retirement, Los Angeles is set up to draft defensive players early and often. The Rams are missing their fourth-rounder, but have an extra third-round selection to give them four picks in the Top 100. Los Angeles also has a pair of fifth-round picks and four sixth-rounders, which could mean the Rams are active in moving around if new defensive coordinator Chris Shula is high on a particular player. (I’ve also heard recent talk that this draft class gets shaky early - perhaps the 3rd round rather than the 5th - which could factor into their decisions).
Before Donald retired, the pay gap between him and the second-highest paid player left on the Los Angeles defense was comical; the Rams added cornerback Darious Williams and safety Kamren Curl on deals that would have tightened that $30 million+ gap by a couple million, but as it stands, no player on the Los Angeles defense has a cap hit of more than $5 million in 2024. Kobie Turner emerged as an impact player as a rookie, and there were many solid contributors around the young defensive tackle, but there’s little question the Rams could stand to add talent to this defense, and there isn’t a position group that couldn’t benefit from a boost.
Mock Draft Thought: Best defensive player available; I have seen some folks mocking Georgia’s Brock Bowers to the Rams if he falls down the board, but as exciting as that would be on offense, and even with Sean McVay’s former podcast co-host, Peter Schrager, mocking an offensive player to them, I just can’t see it.
20. Pittsburgh Steelers
Of all the teams in the NFL, nobody feels more like a Mystery Box than the Pittsburgh Steelers.
I suppose you could also throw the teams that will draft rookie quarterbacks in the mix, but with all the turnover in Pittsburgh, I feel like we’re going to be watching a different team next season.
Health-willing, this defense should be outstanding; we’ll have to see how Patrick Queen adapts without former running mate Roquan Smith, but Queen gives the Steelers an element of speed and playmaking that they have lacked at inside linebacker in recent years. The Steelers also acquired cornerback Donte Jackson from the Panthers in the Diontae Johnson trade; Jackson is unlikely to push for All-Pro honors, but when healthy, he’s competitive in coverage, and Joey Porter Jr. was an impact player on the outside in Year One, so Pittsburgh doesn’t need Jackson to be “the guy.”
The offense is much more up in the air; I don’t really understand why Arthur Smith didn’t think he needed a legitimate quarterback option in Atlanta, but I certainly enjoy watching him scheme offenses, and whatever Russell Wilson and Justin Fields have been in Denver and Chicago, I’ve found them a lot more interesting to watch than Marcus Mariota, Desmond Ridder, and Taylor Heinicke (as well as Kenny Pickett, Mitchell Trubisky, and Mason Rudolph) over the past few seasons.
The Steelers have a pair of really fun backs in Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren, who exemplify “thunder and lightning” running styles, and they’ve also added Cordarelle Patterson, who could once again thrive in a “Joker” role now that Smith doesn’t have several other “positionless” players to juggle (Patterson’s breakout season came in his first year with Smith in Atlanta). Throw in the fact that Smith has a WILD group of tight ends in Pat Freiermuth, the HUGE Darnell Washington, and Connor Heyward (as well as longtime Smith favorite MyCole Pruitt), and this group should be solid.
The X-Factor could come with an injection of blue-chip talent on the line or at receiver. Coming out of his rookie season, I had questions about whether George Pickens was dynamic enough as a route-runner/run-after-catch player to be an elite receiver (the jump-ball ability is unquestioned), but I’m leaning much more towards “yes” after watching him in Year Two; I’ve seen too many instances of him making a defender miss with a subtle move after the catch to discount his ability to get himself into open space, where his stride length takes over.
That said, Pickens is one receiver, and despite the addition of a trio of journeymen/backup “stretch” receivers (Quez Watkins, Van Jefferson, Denzel Mims), the Steelers will be much more dangerous if they have one more outside threat to play off the “hammerhead” approach they will likely bring with their combination of running backs, fullbacks, and tight ends.
Pittsburgh could also use a blue-chip lineman; Broderick Jones has the physical tools and the nasty demeanor, but his footwork felt very chaotic and often left Jones in spots where he was lunging. To me, that indicates a VERY high ceiling if he cleans up his efficiency, because Jones played some solid ball even with that issue; it will be interesting to see how Jones moves in the preseason, as this is the type of thing where the offseason work should show up immediately if Jones has made improvements.
The primary need on the line is at center, so it will be interesting to see how the Steelers balance their needs; my guess is that they would like to take an offensive lineman and a receiver with their picks at 20 and 51, so it would all depend on how draft night plays out.
Mock Draft Thought: I’d circle the names Troy Fautaunu (Washington OL) and Brian Thomas Jr. (LSU WR); those would seem to be the ideal picks at 20. Duke’s Graham Barton is another highly regarded offensive line prospect who has drawn rave reviews for his versatility, but Fautanu has more people pounding the table for him to stay at left tackle. If I’m looking for a blue-chip lineman, that physical profile at center is a fun place to start.
21. Miami Dolphins
They might not get talked about this way, but I’m not sure there is a team that needs to nail this draft more than the Miami Dolphins.
The Dolphins are oozing high-end talent, but since they picked Jaylen Waddle, Jaelan Phillips, and Jevon Holland with their first three selections in the 2021 Draft, the well has gone dry. Part of that is due to the trades for Tyreek Hill, Bradley Chubb, and Jalen Ramsey, but however you slice it, running back Devon Achane is the only player from the 2022 and 2023 draft classes currently contributing to this roster.
It’s not that this is going to become a problem; it is already a huge issue, as we saw when the Dolphins were unable to put the franchise tag on defensive tackle Christian Wilkins, who, despite all the players they’ve traded for around him, was arguably the best player on Miami’s defense. Things do not get better anytime soon - the Dolphins have $246 million allocated to the 2024 cap and $264 million on the books for 2025 - and that’s without an extension for Tua Tagovailoa, Waddle, and Phillips, who are either on, or coming up on, their 5th-year options.
(As an aside, it’s astonishing to watch a head coach who is so obviously brilliant working with a general manager who has bungled this situation so badly; I’m just fascinated by how they put so much into their 2023 basket at the expense of future versions of the team.)
At the same time, the Dolphins still have a very solid roster - they even managed to add Jonnu Smith, who I was certain would join Arthur Smith in Pittsburgh - but I think most Dolphins fans would say they need to be better than they were last season in the years to come, and I’m not seeing an obvious way for that to happen unless GM Chris Grier hammers this draft and gets himself some financial flexibility, because the surplus cap value on the remaining three years of Achene’s deal is not going to fund the rest of this roster.
Mock Draft Thought: Best player available. I don’t think I’d circle a “hole” in Miami’s current starting lineup - and I can’t wait to see what head coach Mike McDaniel dreams up this offseason - but this team needs to find contributors on rookie deals if they are going to keep this thing on the rails.
22. Philadelphia Eagles
In my Eagles reset article, I wrote (bitched) at length about Philadelphia’s inability to adapt to life without Shane Steichen, as well as the general misuse of “run-first” quarterbacks around the NFL last season. Obviously, Steichen isn’t coming back, so we’ll table the discussion on whether Kellen Moore can the Eagles back to playing a brand of football tailored to Hurts’s strengths rather than the plays head coach Nick Sirianni would evidently prefer to run because they would work if he were working with a team that had Andrew Luck again.
As disoriented as they seemed in 2023, this Eagles team is still very talented; Jalen Hurts may not have developed into a pure pocket passer, but he continued to make big-time throws, and as easy as it can be to forget after the Super Bowl run, Hurts’s ball placement was a work-in-progress during his first few years in the NFL. Despite last year’s difficulties, I thought the player looked much like the player from 2023 rather than earlier versions of Hurts; Philadelphia’s offensive philosophy clearly shifted, but the quarterback still seems to have the same tools.
Likewise, the defense has any number of intriguing prospects; Jordan Davis hasn’t developed into an impact pass rusher, but he does contribute in his role, and if memory serves, it wasn’t until Year 4 that we saw New York Giant Dexter Lawrence fully make the jump from “space-eater” to “unstoppable force of nature / All-Pro”. Throw in the fact that fellow Georgia product Nolan Smith had some intriguing flashes in the limited snaps he got behind Philadelphia’s deep group of edge rushers, along with the return of safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson and the addition of Devin White at inside linebacker, and there are reasons to think this defense could be much better in 2024 without any roster additions.
That said, I would have pointed to “talent” as much more of a problem on defense than offense last season, and the Eagles could certainly stand to get younger at cornerback. Then again, there’s the possibility they add an offensive lineman who could compete with Tyler Steen for the right guard spot in the short term and potentially replace Lane Johnson in the long term, so I’d argue the majority of positions are on the board for Philadelphia in Round 1.
Mock Draft Thought: Best player available.
23. Cleveland Browns
The Cleveland Browns slot in 23rd in this exercise, but they won’t be a factor on the first night of the draft, as they get to continue to watch the picks they traded to the Houston Texans for quarterback Deshaun Watson get used by other teams.
Cleveland is also missing their fourth-round pick, which leaves them with the 54th and 85th selections as their only picks in the Top 150. The good thing is that this team doesn’t need to add much in the way of talent - this roster is both deep and stocked with ELITE players - so while the Browns are trying to thread a VERY narrow window, the 2024 roster isn’t going to be hurting for talent.
The bad thing is that Cleveland had a similarly talented roster in 2023, and the quarterback they traded so much for derailed the whole operation. Deshaun Watson was an elite quarterback in my books when he played in Houston, and the physical traits are still there, but we’ve now watched two years of a player who once processed the game at a very high level struggling to get it figured out again; it’s something I’ve noted before, but the disparity between Watson’s early learning curve as a rookie (which was the best in terms of rapid, in-game improvement that I’ve ever witnessed) and his inability to “knock the rust off” has always stuck out to me in this process, and leaves me with very little confidence that Watson is going to figure it out this summer.
I probably love watching Jameis Winston play as much as anyone, but that’s because it’s fascinating to witness Winston’s take on how football should be played when you’re mixing him in with 31 other quarterbacks, not because I would want quarterbacking a team I want to win. As absurd as this sounds - and it would be a narrow margin if it exists - playing a run-heavy, turnover-averse style with third-stringer Tyler Huntley at quarterback could wind up giving the Browns the best chance to win.
It’s not something I ever imagined I’d say of Watson in the Houston days, and with the addition of Jerry Jeudy to an already talented group of playmakers, the offense is set to take off if Watson can get his game right, but I wouldn’t bet anything on that outcome at this point.
Mock Draft Thought: Nothing specific; like the Dolphins, the Browns are running low on “surplus value” players, but that was the deal when they traded all those picks for Watson (whereas the Dolphins have traded their draft capital for veteran position players, two of whom (Bradley Chubb and Jalen Ramsey) have missed significant time to injury).
24. Dallas Cowboys
Through the years, I’ve always had a generally positive opinion of Dak Prescott. He’s always been a fun watch, and while I understand why his contract number has always created so much debate, he’s definitely a very good player.
Unfortunately, after watching Prescott’s collapses in the postseason during the past two years, it would appear that those who argued against giving him a top-of-market deal had a point.
For all the good things that Prescott has done in his career, it’s been disappointing to see him fail to rise to the occasion against the 49ers and Packers in recent years. His mistakes were the story of the game against San Francisco in 2022, and while Green Bay’s offense came out on fire in the 2023 game, Prescott threw gas on the fire by setting the Packers up with a short field with an interception late in the first quarter, then blew the whole thing up when his pick-six to Green Bay’s Darnell Savage at the 2-minute warning made it 27-0 with 1:50 left in the first half.
To add to the problem, these mistakes happened with a team that was in its prime window, with superstars like receiver CeeDee Lamb and pass rusher Micah Parsons on their rookie deals. Cowboys fans are upset the team has been so passive this offseason - which is somewhat understandable - but this is an organization that has always been aggressive with its cap dollars; with new deals for Lamb and Parsons on the horizon, Dallas has been averse to pulling credit from future years for this year’s team…but then again, if they’re just looking to play it out before they move on from Prescott after the season, perhaps it’s worth picking up the phone and calling, say, the Raiders, to gauge interest.
Things could go in an unexpected way - this is the NFL, after all - but all things considered, it feels like Dallas already missed their best windows with Prescott at the helm.
Mock Draft Thought: The defense could use help at several spots, but the most pressing need is on the offensive line; as it stands the left guard and center spots are up in the air, so getting an offensive line prospect who can either play inside or allow Tyler Smith to stay at guard rather than moving to left tackle appears to be the priority.
That’s it for teams 17-24; I’m posting the next eight squads from The ESSENTIAL NFL Newsletter later today, and you can also check out the related podcasts for Teams 1-16 on Spotify or YouTube.