The Roster is Building; Who Quarterbacks the Bears Moving Forward?
NFL Offseason Roster Review #9
As I sat down to review Chicago’s assets heading into the 2024 NFL offseason, I quickly softened my stance on general manager Ryan Poles’s decision to trade for Montez Sweat mid-season.
In a vacuum, I hated the move (even though I was a fan of the player). Chicago sent Washington a 2nd round lottery ticket - which turned out to be the 40th pick in the draft - for the right to sign Sweat to a contract was, at best, market-value, and at worst, underwater from the day it was signed.
That said, it was evident at the time the trade was made that Carolina and Chicago were tracking in the wrong direction, and while it would have been aggressive to assume he would get the 1st overall pick, Poles could make a reasonable bet that he would have two Top 10 picks in the 2024 Draft.
History tells us that the 35th-45th picks will include several players who provide their teams with significant cap surplus over their rookie deals, and Sweat will be hard-pressed to provide 100% of the value on his $25 million cap hits for the next four years. But at some point, teams have to stop stockpiling resources and make moves, and the NFL landscape doesn’t always provide value-friendly options, so sometimes, you have to take your swing. Some of those moves don’t work out, but San Francisco isn’t wringing their hands over the missed trade up for Trey Lance, and so the Bears shouldn’t sweat giving up one draft pick, or the fact that Sweat arguably provides $20 million in value rather than $25.
The two situations are not identical, but on further review, this reminded me a bit of the swing that Texans GM Nick Caserio took when he traded up for Will Anderson in last year’s draft; it wasn’t a sound move from a value standpoint, but after patiently accumulating assets for two years, Caserio had the resources to take his shot. Teams can’t make a habit of it, but value aside, Caserio and Poles made gambles that paid off, getting their teams impact players at a premium position to put their rosters in a better place.
To that end, Chicago has decisions to make, but unlike last offseason, the current depth chart isn’t riddled with holes; to the contrary, with few glaring needs, Chicago can use their draft capital and $50 million in cap space to focus on adding impact players.
Finding Impact Players: The Quarterback
In many respects, last year’s draft offers a strong argument for both sides of Chicago’s decision at quarterback.
On the one hand, you have the fact that, whatever the hype around the college prospects at this point, you could wind up with a markedly less talented quarterback than Justin Fields if you roll the dice. (see: Bryce Young and Carolina)
Or you could wind up with a player who is already playing the game at a dramatically higher level than Fields. (see: C.J. Stroud and Houston)
That’s not to say I’m out on Bryce Young, but it is to point out that Young’s rookie film suggests there should have been concerns about issues beyond his size. While C.J. Stroud showed off absurd accuracy at all levels of the field, Young’s rookie season was as much about his missed opportunities for explosive plays as it was about the issues around him.
If there was an easy way to know any of this, there would never be misses, but the truth is that the NFL Draft offers no guarantees. Some players are more likely to succeed than others, but it’s a toss of the dice with every pick.
The good thing for Bears fans is that they don’t appear to have a “bad” choice. Fields rebounded from a tough start to 2023 (which was heavily influenced by Luke Getsy’s playcalling) to flash his immense talent down the stretch; it’s clear that new offensive coordinator Shane Waldron would need to build the offense off the threat that Fields presents as a runner as Fields continues to add refinement as a pocket passer, but there’s more than a few teams having success with that approach in today’s NFL, with the 2022 Eagles reaching the Super Bowl and the 2023 Ravens reaching the AFC Title Game. Were it not for some guy named Mahomes, a dual-threat quarterback may have lifted the Lombardi in consecutive seasons.
Chicago would also be able to extract a second straight king’s ransom if they trade the 1st overall pick, but if they are sold on one of these quarterback prospects, they can likely recoup the value they gave up in the Sweat trade by dealing Fields to one of the many QB-needy teams in the NFL. If they find the right buyer, Fields may bring back more value than Sweat went for; he’s certainly a particular flavor of player, but I assume some would rather gamble on Fields than sign up for one of the generic 6’1, unathletic quarterbacks that several teams are working with these days.
Finding Impact Players: The Offense
The Bears need to add some depth to the offense, but with receiver D.J. Moore, tight end Cole Kmet, running backs Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson, and last year’s five offensive line starters under contract, there isn’t a glaring need for this group.
This year’s draft class lacks impact running backs, so Chicago is likely to work with a committee similar to last year’s, but this could be a year to add a weapon across from D.J. Moore after Darnell Mooney failed to produce as the number two receiver last year. It’s possible that the Bears retain Mooney if Shane Waldron thinks he can get more out of him - count me among those who were surprised that Mooney did not thrive in that secondary role after doing a decent job as Chicago’s top receiver in previous seasons - but a change at the spot seems more likely.
That could mean that the Bears target a receiver with the 9th overall pick - NFL.com’s Daniel Jeremiah has 4 receivers in his top 15 players - and if they can identify a way to shift the offensive line, adding one of the highly touted tackle prospects in this year’s class would be another boost. The latter scenario is more difficult to envision, because I can’t quite imagine Braxton Jones or Darnell Wright kicking inside from their tackle positions, so unless Poles elects to make Jones one of the NFL’s better “swing” tackles, we could see Washington’s Rome Odunze, LSU’s Malik Nabers, or LSU’s Brian Thomas Jr. lining up across from D.J. Moore in 2024. (apparently, LSU QB Jayden Daniels had some dudes to throw to!)
Finding Impact Players: The Defense
Chicago faces a key free agency decision on defense, where former second-rounder Jaylon Johnson, who had already played at a high level in his first three seasons, posted a career year ahead of free agency.
While the Bears have to be mindful of the fact that they would need to pay Fields sooner than later if they keep the quarterback, I don’t think that precludes them from signing Johnson, because Chicago would be sitting on their return from trading the 1st overall pick and the associated expected surplus cap value.
If they don’t retain Johnson, the Bears could target his replacement in the draft, as they have few other needs. The linebacker room appears to be set with Tremaine Edmunds, T.J. Edwards, and Jack Sanborn all providing a positive impact in 2023, the defensive line has impact players on rookie contracts such as Gervon Dexter to go along with Sweat, and the tandem of Kyler Gordon and Tyrique Stevenson provides the Bears with a solid foundation in the slot and one of the outside corner positions.
That said, Johnson is a known quantity for this organization, and locking him in with Stevenson as the outside duo for the next few years would hardly be a negative, particularly with safety Eddie Jackson’s contract set to come off the books after 2024.
Regardless of which way they go with Johnson, expect Chicago to add depth on the line; they’re off to a strong start, but defensive coordinators love to send pass rushers in waves if at all possible, and it never hurts to add another DUDE on the defensive line.
Cautious Optimism?
By all appearances, Chicago’s roster is moving in the right direction, and it seems that the behind-the-scenes issues that caused multiple members of the coaching staff to depart in the early weeks of 2023 have been resolved.
Even so, it is hard to feel “all in” on a team until there is a more definitive judgment on the quarterback, and Bears fans have to wait until September for that. The positive is that they know their quarterback will be physically talented, which makes the experiment exciting, but as The Athletic’s Robert Mays is quick to point out, these experiments tend not to work out in Chicago’s favor.
Long-held fan grievances aside, I’m excited to watch Chicago, both in the upcoming offseason and the season to come. The NFC North will arguably wind up as the most competitive division in the NFL - assuming Kirk Cousins returns to form in Minnesota and the Packers and Lions continue to build, Chicago would be the X-Factor - but there’s plenty of talent to win games here if they do a better job of playing to the quarterback’s strengths - whoever that quarterback might be - from the drop in 2024.
Early 2024 Projection: 4th in NFC North (eh, maybe 3rd is more fun, but I could go “2.5” for all four teams in this division and feel fine about it)