Most of the free agency deals that will be signed ahead of the NFL Draft have been signed, and now that the dust has settled, it’s a good time to assess the state of each franchise. This won’t be as in-depth as the “State of the Franchise” series I will do after the draft as a 2024 NFL preview, but as hyped as we get about the draft, the structure of these teams is largely in place at this point.
In the interest of hitting all 32 teams, I’m going to go in order of original first-round picks; in other words, even though the Bears have the first overall pick, I’m going to talk Carolina in that space. I’ll also do a loose Mock Draft where I suggest a few options for this team, but that’s more an afterthought; this is about the state of each team rather than evaluations of the draft prospects, so I want to section my attention accordingly.
Let’s get into it!
1. Carolina Panthers
To Carolina’s credit, they identified that they needed to get Bryce Young significant help to get their young quarterback on track. The problem - aside from the fact that the quarterback they traded a King’s Ransom to acquire is a very dependent piece as far as quarterbacks go - is the price they paid to do it.
Carolina solidified their interior offensive line with the additions of Damien Lewis and Robert Hunt, but they paid a premium price to do so, and they are unlikely to get premium play in return. Lewis and Hunt are both solid players, and they bring a size/physicality element that you’d like to see somewhere on every line, but Hunt is getting paid like an All-Pro, and Lewis is in the top 16 interior line contracts in terms of average annual value. Both players have longer, more consistent track records than New York Jet-signee John Simpson, but Simpson could offer similar play in 2024, and he’s making $12 million over 2 years while Hunt is making $100 over 5 and Lewis is making $53 over 4.
Overpaying to solidify these spots would be one thing if it fixed the offensive line, but it doesn’t; the biggest problem is arguably left tackle Ikem Ekwonu, whose tendency to give up quick pass rush losses, particularly to the inside, outweighs whatever positives he brings in the run game. It’s an issue that has consistently shown up over Ekwonu’s first two seasons, and while he certainly could take a step forward, the lack of improvement from Year One to Two was a red flag given how big of an issue it was in Year One.
On top of that, they are counting on Austin Corbett, who tore his ACL in the final game of 2022, got back on the field in Week 8, and suffered another season-ending knee injury in Week 11, to slot in as the starting center, which seems dangerously optimistic. Corbett was a solid player when healthy, but part of what went wrong in Carolina was the plan for him to have a starting job on the interior line, and I’m not sure why they would bank on him being available in 2024.
At the same time the Panthers are overpaying for players on offense, they are selling off their defense at reduced cost. The value wasn’t great on Brian Burns, so you’d assume they are looking to use the extra pick they added in the Top 40 to help the offense, which might point to adding an interior lineman and a receiver with their picks at 33 and 39 after trading cornerback Donte Jackson to the Steelers for receiver Diontae Johnson. Before that move, the Panthers might have looked to add a pair of receivers in the 30s, but with Adam Thielen back on the roster and 2023 second-rounder Jonathan Mingo coming off a rookie season where the tape was better than the numbers, adding two more receivers in the top 40 would border on overkill. With former Packer Yosh Nijman in place as a replacement level swing tackle, Carolina might decide that additional depth on the interior is the best way to backstop the 2024 offense.
It leaves Carolina in a weird spot, but it would almost be stranger to see them use one of those picks in the Top 40 on a defensive player after making these moves. As much as I love Diontae Johnson as a route-runner - and he is dynamic in that regard - he has some of the most inconsistent hands in the NFL, and it’s been a persistent issue throughout his career. Given that Young showed a tendency to miss open receivers when he did have a clean pocket during his rookie year (as alluded to in the note on Mingo), I would have preferred to roll the dice on two rookie receivers - and there’s no shortage of options at 33 and 39 - than bring in a player who drops the ball that frequently.
We’ll see how it all works out, but I haven’t heard many folks arguing that what happened to Carolina’s offense last season was a fluke, and I have my doubts about whether the addition of three average players will change that. The Panthers need these moves to pay off in a big way on offense, and even in an ideal scenario - which this is not - I don’t think Bryce Young is likely to lead more than a league-average offense in the NFL. His best-case scenario is arguably Tua Tagovailoa after Mike McDaniel took over as head coach in Miami, and there is no Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle on the Carolina roster.
Mock Draft: Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears via Carolina Panthers. To add insult to injury, the Panthers will have to sit and watch the Bears take a quarterback who is widely regarded as a superior quarterback to the one they traded the pick for - and that’s without factoring in everything else they gave up.
2. Washington Commanders
The Commanders feel like the polar opposite of the Panthers; rather than running down specific players at exorbitant prices, Washington general manager Adam Peters sat back and added a long list of solid players on reasonable contracts to ensure a level of competency on the roster.
There’s a school of thought out there that teams need to fill every spot on an offense so they can “accurately” assess the quarterback, but sometimes folks get too idealized about this notion; the quarterback needs some parts of the offense to work, but ultimately, a big part of playing quarterback in the NFL is navigating the situations when things aren’t perfect. If we want to point to examples from 2023, C.J. Stroud and Jordan Love were not playing in perfect situations in Houston or Green Bay, but they made the players around them better and played at elite levels for stretches despite the obstacles.
To that end, the Commanders could certainly stand to add a left tackle, but the additions of guard Nick Allegretti and center Tyler Biadasz should mean that the offensive line is reasonably solid. Biadasz and right guard Sam Cosmi are solid starters at a minimum, and while Allegretti and right tackle Andrew Wylie are more borderline, both have significant experience playing in big moments with Kansas City, so you’re not working with linemen who are likely to blow mental assignment left and right.
Washington is in a similar position with their skill players; Jahan Dotson’s trajectory is iffy after he failed to build on some flashes in Year One, but Terry McLaurin remains one of the league’s most consistent targets at every level of the field. Throw in the additions of running back Austin Ekeler and tight end Zach Ertz, who provide reliable targets in the short areas, and this Washington offense should be more than competent enough for a quality quarterback to play some solid ball; in fact, if they get the right quarterback, it could wind up helping Dotson take off.
Another good reason for patience is that the Commanders are poised to make a significant splash in the NFL Draft; in addition to the 2nd overall pick, Washington holds the 36th, 40th, 67th, 78th, and 100th picks. Given the presence of some Tier 3 offensive tackle prospects in the 30-40 range that might be Tier 2 in other draft classes, the number of quality receivers to come out of the 2nd and 3rd rounds in recent drafts, and the possibility of upgrading on Allegretti with a mid-round pick, and Washington’s offensive depth chart could look far better stocked by the time the NFL Draft ends. Throw in the fact that veteran Marcus Mariota is in place to help in the transition, and the Commanders look like a reasonably appealing landing spot.
The moves to date haven’t been over the top, but if Peters and head coach Dan Quinn get their guy at quarterback with the 2nd overall pick, they will be in an excellent position to be active in free agency and push for a Super Bowl title in 2025. If the rookie quarterback looks like he would benefit from improvements in a particular area of the offense, or looks like he might be a miss, then they can pivot accordingly.
Mock Draft: Drake Maye, UNC, Jayden Daniels, LSU, or J.J. McCarthy, Michigan.
A quick quarterback note: while I do not have All-22 film to evaluate these prospects, there is enough smoke around J.J. McCarthy that I decided to check out his highlight film; based on the reports I’ve heard from analysts I respect out there, the big question mark is about McCarthy’s traits (the reports on football intelligence, character, decision-making are all positive), and traits are something you can see on a highlight reel.
In that regard, it would not surprise me to see McCarthy go in the Top 10, or even the Top 5. I can’t speak to why college draft analysts weren’t higher on this player, but when I throw on the highlights, I see a player with above-average physical traits for an NFL quarterback; McCarthy has an easy, quick release that generates solid velocity, he throws the ball with proper timing and placement to all three levels of the field, and while I wouldn’t advocate for running an option offense with him given his frame, McCarthy has the wheels to pick up explosive gains on the ground, and as an added bonus, his highlight reel shows an ability to keep his eyes downfield and recognize opportunities to throw rather than run based on how defenders react once he is in space.
I’m not trying to offer a definitive evaluation on any of these players, because I’m not evaluating down-to-down here, but given what McCarthy’s high-end plays look like along with the rest of the report, I would be surprised to see him get out of the Top 10. Once I got into McCarthy, I wound up throwing on a few minutes of all four of these guys just to get a feel for how they move and spin it, and it’s easy to understand why they’re generating so much excitement; all four show the ability to deliver the ball with timing and accuracy in the context of their offense, and they can also make spectacular things happen when the play breaks down. It’s a big jump to the next level, and there’s nothing easy about the quarterback evaluation process, but all four of these players have the physical tools to be impact players in the NFL.
3. New England Patriots
After head coach Jerod Mayo threw out the idea that the Patriots would “burn some cash” in free agency, the Patriots took a very Packers-like approach under new general manager Eliot Wolf.
Frustrating as it might be for Pats fans, I agree with the approach; ultimately, it’s not all that different than what Washington did, even if there are some differences in the current roster structures.
The biggest sticking point, from what I gather, is the fact that New England did not add weapons beyond receiver K.J. Osborn, but I would argue that New England has set themselves up to supplement that need in a receiver-heavy draft by allowing DeVante Parker to walk. Parker is a competent receiver, but he is by no means a burner, and keeping him in the starting lineup alongside the two players they did bring back, receiver Kendrick Bourne and tight end Hunter Henry, would have put a cap on New England’s overall speed at the skill positions.
Instead, the Patriots have left spots open for competition, and if they add a receiver (or two) with the 34th, 68th, or 103rd pick, we could be looking at a very different New England offense come September. Like Washington, the Patriots have a question mark at left tackle, but this offensive line is not nearly as bad as some would have you believe; Michael Onwenu is set to play right tackle after signing a significant deal to stay in town, Cole Strange and David Andrews are a solid tandem at left guard and center, and Sidy Sow and Atonio Mafi, who both logged significant snaps as rookies, are competent as a the starting right guard and interior line depth, and could turn into more this offseason. Throw in the fact that I think Patriots fans will like K.J. Osborn, who has enough juice to line up inside or outside despite his limited size, and there’s still a pretty wide range of possibilities for New England’s offense ahead of the NFL Draft.
The Houston Texans were horrible on offense before 2023, and whatever the revisionist history, Carolina’s Terrace Marshall and Houston’s Nico Collins, two angular receivers who had gone in the 2nd and 3rd rounds of the 2021 NFL Draft, had more in common than not as relatively unknown entities entering their Year 3 seasons. It’s part player, part environment, but fast-forward a year, and we’re talking about Nico Collins as an ascending superstar while Marshall could wind up getting cut.
Point being, the talent gap between the worst and best NFL teams is almost always less than we think, and with no true needs on defense, the Patriots can focus on adding a quarterback and some juice at the skill positions. Like any team picking a quarterback at the top, they obviously need to hit on that pick, but I don’t think it’s far-fetched to suggest that the high end of New England’s outcome distribution is pushing Buffalo for the AFC East in 2024 after we saw a somewhat similar storyline play out in the AFC South this season. The Dolphins and Jets are certainly factors, but both teams face questions of their own; in a league as crazy as the NFL, I think it would be more nuts not to consider the possibility that the Patriots could do a one-year flip job with the right draft pick. And much like Washington, if New England hits on their quarterback, they are in a terrific position to chart their course forward with more information in hand; with just $99 million committed to the 2025 cap, the Patriots can build whatever they like around their young signal-caller if they get the right guy.
Mock Draft: Drake Maye, UNC, Jayden Daniels, LSU, or J.J. McCarthy, Michigan.
4. Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals roll into the 2024 NFL Draft with plenty of picks…and a desperate need to add players.
Arizona holds the 4th, 27th, 35th, 66th, 71st, 90th, and 104th picks, and with a pair of 5th-rounders to add to a roster that just went through a “tryout” phase, it would not surprise to see the Cardinals move around the draft board in their quest to acquire impact players.
And to be clear, they need impact players; the move went under the radar because Steve Kiem is no longer the general manager, but the fact that one of Kiem’s parting gifts to current GM Monti Ossenfort was the acquisition of receiver Marquise Brown from the Ravens for a pick that turned into center Tyler Linderbaum looks even worse after Brown departed the Cardinals for the Chiefs in free agency. It’s an unfortunate situation, because whatever pass-catching prowess tight end Trey McBride showed down the stretch, going into the 2024 season with a wide receiver trio of Michael Wilson, Greg Dortch, and Zach Pascal would be an incredibly underwhelming approach for a team that needs to get moving in the general direction of competency. The Cardinals added offensive tackle Jonah Williams on a free-agent deal, but whether he lines up on the left or right side, Williams is only a passable tackle; he’s certainly not going to be the reason this offense moves. Paris Johnson should continue to develop in Year Two, but he’s just one player; with Williams in place, Arizona probably doesn’t need to add a lineman, but they also have four spots where they could look to make upgrades.
Despite the need for elite players across the roster, the current state of the receiver room would seem to make one of the three prized receivers in this class the target, but given where the Vikings, Broncos, and Raiders sit in this draft, trading the 4th overall pick could mean missing out on Marvin Harrison Jr. (Ohio State), Malik Nabers (LSU), and Rome Odunze (Washington). Then again, we saw Ossenfort make multiple moves in last year’s draft, so he could try to move down and then jump back up; if he takes that approach, I would think the Falcons, who are likely to be looking for a defensive player, would be happy to trade down from the 8th overall pick.
Paris Johnson was a hit, and the rest of Arizona’s 2023 draft class includes several Year One contributors who could pop in Year Two, but given the lack of big-time talent in their free-agent additions, the Cardinals need to find more impact players in this year’s Top 100 to have any chance of running down the 49ers and Rams in 2024. As it stands, that looks like more of a two-year timeline, but Arizona could look a lot different if they find four big-time players with the seven picks they have in the first 104 picks.
Mock Draft: Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State; Malik Nabers, LSU; Rome Odunze, Washington; candidate to trade down from #4
5. Los Angeles Chargers
The contract renegotiations were an extenuating factor, but the decision to keep edge rushers Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa while they moved on from receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams solidified what most would have guessed about this Jim Harbaugh-led team; true to form, Harbaugh’s Chargers are going to start up front.
I’ve heard some express the opinion that the Chargers needed a year to reset during this transition, but I think that’s an odd mindset to take when you have Justin Herbert at quarterback; as the cross-town Rams showed last season, a team with a quality quarterback can be competitive even as the roster gets younger. To re-acquaint myself with Herbert after he missed the back half of the season, I went back and reviewed the tape from Los Angeles’s losses to the Lions, Packers, and Ravens in November. Whatever the outcomes were for his team, Herbert was a blast to watch; Jared Goff, Jordan Love, and Lamar Jackson all put on a show, but Herbert’s play was a strong reminder that he has every chance to be in MVP contention sooner than later. He consistently makes jaw-dropping throws, and in that three-game sample, he nearly ripped off two 50+ yard touchdowns on the ground, getting tackled inside the ten after rolling through the open field looking something like 49ers tight end George Kittle. And were it not for a brutal drop by rookie receiver Quentin Johnston (a consistent theme of Johnston’s rookie season), Herbert’s production from those three games would have included a 70-yard go-ahead touchdown against Green Bay with less than half a minute remaining
The Chargers have been a mess with Herbert at quarterback - watching former head coach Brandon Staley insist on relying on a 4-2 pass rush front when neither his defensive tackles nor his inside linebackers could hold up against the run was simply painful - but I don’t see any reason they can’t be competitive in 2024. There are question marks at receiver, but Los Angeles appears happy to start at tight end, where they already have four players in place. Donald Parham Jr. and Stone Smartt were both on the roster - at 6’8, Parham has been a solid complementary target for Hebert for years, and Smartt has enough juice to merit a further look - but the Chargers supplemented the position in free agency with two solid veterans in Will Dissly and Hayden Hurst. Nobody is going to confuse any of these players with Travis Kelce, but the depth the Chargers have added should allow them to employ more 13 personnel than any other team in the NFL; heck, if they add an offensive lineman in the Top 10, we could see all sorts of “heavy” combinations between their six offensive linemen and four tight ends.
Los Angeles certainly has a need at receiver - I like Joshua Palmer, but first-round pick or not, Quentin Johnston’s rookie tape was not good*, and there doesn’t appear to be an easy fix there - but Harbaugh and GM Joe Hortiz have to balance that against the fact that they aren’t planning on picking in the Top 10 again anytime soon. If we’re just talking about 2024, then using the 5th overall pick on a receiver is a no-brainer, but that discussion gets more complicated when you look at 2025 and beyond. It might be agonizing for Chargers fans, but at the same time, this is a great spot to be in; if Los Angeles feels strongly about a lineman to take him in the Top 10, the Chargers should have one of the NFL’s elite offensive lines, and there is every reason to expect they can add receiving help later in the draft. If they go with one of the three “Crown Jewel” receivers, they’ll be getting a premium player at a position of need, and the offensive line could still be outstanding.
All things considered, if I had to bet, I’d lean to receiver at this point. The Chargers have signed Bradley Bozeman to play center, so even with former starter Corey Linsley, who missed most of last season with various ailments, set to retire, Los Angeles can pencil in a reasonably solid starting five. If they do add a lineman, it would be interesting to see how things get re-shuffled; left guard Zion Johnson could improve under the new coaching staff, but as it stands, his issues in pass protection strike me as this group’s biggest liability, and I’m not sure I can see Trey Pipkins kicking in from right tackle given his movement traits. You wouldn’t think that would influence Los Angeles’s pick - after all, this pick would be about the long-term - but perhaps it would cause them to favor a more versatile lineman in the draft if they have two players graded closely.
We’ll see what happens, but assuming Herbert is healthy, I think the Chargers would be tough to line up against as things stand. Their emphasis on heavy personnel is going to present a schematic changeup for opposing defenses, and with an elite talent running the show at quarterback, Los Angeles has every chance to get into the thick of the AFC discussion.
Mock Draft: Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State; Malik Nabers, LSU; Rome Odunze, Washington; Joe Alt, Notre Dame, or another offensive lineman; candidate to trade down if Arizona picks at #4.
*My comparison for Johnston is former Packer/Chiefs receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling; both are long, angular players who are fast in straight lines, but they struggle to change direction, which limits their route trees, and both players struggle to catch the ball. Johnston could certainly improve, but as it stands, it looks like he got overdrafted based on his length and straight-line speed.
6. New York Giants
In my first mock draft of the offseason, I gave the Giants a receiver, much to the chagrin of some fans who are concerned about the quarterback and offensive line, which strike me as valid concerns.
Unfortunately, that’s the problem with the corner the Giants have painted themselves into. Head coach Brian Daboll and general manager Joe Schoen need to win now after last year’s setback, but they are trying to fix the defense at the same time that they address a long list of needs on offense, and it’s looking like there simply won’t be enough resources available. I’m amped to watch New York’s defensive front after the trade that added Brian Burns to a group that already featured defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence and edge rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux, but at the same time, it seems as if the Giants might have been better off using the 39th overall pick to add to an offense that would seemingly need to improve if Daboll, an offensive-minded head coach, is going to keep his job.
It’s all a muddled situation, and when you have Daboll come out to publicly back Jones as “the guy” once he is back from his torn ACL, only to have the owner give his support if they want to draft a quarterback a couple days later, it’s hard to feel confident about how things are unfolding for this regime. The problems on the offensive line are real; if Andrew Thomas is healthy, he is a “plus” starter at the least, but if Evan Neal, the 7th overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, doesn’t take a significant step forward, then the Giants are looking at starting veteran journeyman Jermaine Eluemunor, who is right at the edge of replacement level and backup, at right tackle. Jon Runyan, another signee, was competent over the course of his rookie deal in Green Bay, but the Packers aren’t losing sleep over his departure, and veteran Aaron Stinnie, who is currently penciled in as the left guard, looked like he was at the end of the road down the stretch last season. The Giants also added Austin Schlottmann at center, but if he gets in the lineup ahead of 2023 second-round pick John Michael Schmitz, it’s just another Schoen draft pick getting beat out by a journeyman who is unlikely to provide a true “fix” at the position.
With all of those resources committed along the offensive line, it’s hard for me to imagine the Giants using this pick on anything but a quarterback or a receiver, which puts them between a rock and a hard place. On the one hand, if Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Naebers, or Rome Odunze is a hit, then the receiving trio of Darius Slayton, Jalin Hyatt, and Wan’Dale Robinson looks like a versatile group of complements rather than an underwhelming starting three, but upgrading the receiver room doesn’t automatically make Daniel Jones a better quarterback. On the other hand, if they do use the 6th pick on a quarterback, that player is not going to be surrounded by great talent, and Daboll may not have the patience to bring a quarterback along given the pressure on him to win now.
New York stood out in 2022 for their ability to maximize their talent, and given the problem-solving ability they showed that season, I don’t want to count them completely out. That said, there’s no getting around the fact that they are trying to answer an awful lot of questions you don’t want to be figuring out entering Year Three of your rebuild. There’s always a chance of flipping things around in the NFL, but at the same time, I think it’s fair to say that Daboll and Schoen will be up for Coach and Executive of the Year if they turn things around, because the situation is not great as things stand.
Mock Draft: Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State; Malik Nabers, LSU; or Rome Odunze, Washington. Like it or not, this regime invested in Daniel Jones at quarterback, and I can certainly see them talking themselves into another quick rebound after the results they achieved in 2022. It would likely be a different approach if it were Year One of the rebuild, but that’s not the situation that Schoen and Daboll are in.
7. Tennessee Titans
Before free agency, it looked like the Titans would take an offensive tackle. After free agency, anything else would be the surprise of all draft surprises.
Tennessee’s focus is on building around Will Levis at quarterback, so receiver would have been a possibility if one of the big three had been available, but that scenario went out the window when the Titans signed Calvin Ridley to a huge deal in free agency. It may not turn out to be an elite group, but with the still-productive DeAndre Hopkins, an explosive complementary piece in tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo, and the potential for Treylon Burks to contribute as a fourth option, the Titans are at least average at receiver, a notable upgrade on the situation they found themselves in after the A.J. Brown trade went belly up on their end during the 2022 season.
As to the rest of their moves, it strikes me as a mixed bag. There were plenty of reasons that the Chargers were so bad on defense last season, but it ultimately boils down to individual players, and defensive tackle Sebastian Joseph-Day and linebacker Kenneth Murray were key reasons why Los Angeles was so vulnerable up the gut. The trade for L’Jarius Sneed is more promising; Sneed may not have a multi-year track record at his elite standard, but he was an impact player before he took it to a new level in 2023. The long-term extension he is set to side might make his versatility an afterthought - some would argue his cap hit precludes him lining up anywhere but outside cornerback - but there is also the school of thought that has weaponized players like Jalen Ramsey as the defense’s moveable chess piece. It should be a fun decision for new defensive coordinator Dennard Wilson, especially because Roger McCreary also has inside/outside versatility at corner; free-agent Chidobe Awuzie can be penciled in as an outside starter in Tennessee’s nickel package, but it might take a few games to sort out how Wilson will deploy Sneed and McCreary. (Or Sneed could line up outside with McCreary in the slot for the entire season; we’ll see in September!).
All in all, it seems like general manager Ran Carthon has put his new head coach, Brian Callahan, in a position to have at least moderate success as they assess their young quarterback. Much like the teams picking in the Top 3, Tennessee will roll into 2024 with a prospect at quarterback, and I’d argue he’s a pretty exciting one; Levis needs to tone down certain aspects of his game - as much as I love describing a quarterback as a “maniac” in my notes, regularly running through NFL defenders is not a formula for consistent health - but damned if this guy doesn’t have tools. Levis may not be on the level of a Josh Allen or Justin Herbert, but his arm strength is certainly notable; this comparison is less about throwing motion and more about ball flight, but in that regard, the guy Levis brought to mind from that standpoint was Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford. Levis also has more than enough mobility to pick up a first down with his legs, and while his accuracy and processing need refinement, there are enough positives on film to suggest he could develop into a “plus” starter in the NFL.
The one downside to all of this is that if this team does click, there would still be a gap between them and the Texans, but ultimately, Tennessee can’t let Houston’s success dictate their rebuild. They’ve taken some swings, but nobody is going to complain about Ridley’s contract if he helps Levis make this a middle-of-the-pack offense in 2024, and if Levis does not progress the way they hope, then none of these moves are going to sink the franchise if they decide they need to pivot at quarterback.
Mock Draft: LT Joe Alt, Notre Dame. Some mocks have suggested JC Latham if a team is targeting a right tackle, and Taliese Fuaga (Oregon State), Olumuyiwa Fashanu (Penn State), and Troy Fautanu (Washington) all have their backers, but while reports are mixed on those four, nobody seems to have Alt outside of their Top 10. This pick could mean that the Titans have one of the better three-man chains (Alt, left guard Peter Skoronski, and center Lloyd Cushenberry) of any offensive line in the league, which would certainly make life easier on Levis this season.
8. Atlanta Falcons
Given the investments this team has made on offense, it would be ideal if the Falcons can auction off this pick to a team in pursuit of J.J. McCarthy, or if McCarthy goes earlier, getting into the secondary market if a team like Arizona winds up wanting to move back up the board.
Regardless of what happens ahead of them, Atlanta is going to be looking for a defensive player, and it will be a huge upset if they aren’t picking the first defensive player of the draft at #8. While it’s entirely possible that one of the top receivers or tackles would win a starting job for Atlanta, that would mean that a solid player with a significant amount of draft investment or salary cap dollars goes on the bench, and that doesn’t make a lot of sense given Atlanta’s dearth of talent on defense. If they do pick at #8, Alabama’s Dallas Turner is a popular name, but while analysts have him at the top of the defensive board, they don’t seem to think there is a massive gap between Turner and the next edge rushers or the top corners in the class, so they would be able to move back a few picks and still add a similar talent.
We’ll see what it all adds up to in Atlanta; assuming new quarterback Kirk Cousins suffers no ill effects from last season’s torn Achilles tendon, the Falcons should be set to compete with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for the NFC South title, but much as Tampa Bay doesn’t look quite talented enough to compete for a Super Bowl with Baker Mayfield at quarterback, Atlanta may be hard-pressed to keep up with some of the NFL’s elite come January. There is a lot of talk about how well Kirk Cousins will or won’t play coming off a torn Achilles, but lost in all of that is the fact that a year ago, the questions were about whether Cousins would throw the ball past the sticks in do-or-die situations come playoff time, not regular season success, and that question will still be up in the air if/when the Falcons make it to the postseason.
Overall, Atlanta has put the ball right in the middle of the fairway, and while they do not have a talent as dynamic as Justin Jefferson, this version of the Falcons shouldn’t be a significant drop-off in talent from the versions of the Vikings that we’ve seen under head coach Kevin O’Connell in 2021 and 2022. In a way, it’s funny that the Bucs, Falcons, and Saints have all taken, to varying degrees, the “middle-of-the-road” veteran approach at quarterback; I’m discounting the Saints because the contract absurdity has the roster leaking talent at an alarming rate, and I think there is a very real chance they bottom out, but the best case scenarios for all three teams appear to be similar. These three squads could certainly make the playoffs, but a Super Bowl run seems unlikely with their current roster constructions.
Mock Draft: EDGE Dallas Turner, Alabama. Jared Verse (Florida State) and Laiatu Latu (UCLA) have drawn reasonably similar reviews, and cornerbacks Quinyon Mitchell (Toledo) and Terrion Arnold (Alabama) are also seen as high-end defensive prospects, so Atlanta would not lack options if they move down into the teens of the first round, but if they stick at eight, Turner is a fit at their most pressing position of need.
That’s it for the first eight teams; look out for the next eight squads from The ESSENTIAL NFL Newsletter tomorrow, and if you haven’t gotten enough on these teams from this article, you can check out a related podcast on Spotify or YouTube.