Chicago’s Dilemma: Justin Fields vs. The First Overall Pick
Do the Bears move forward with Fields in Year 4 or reset the clock at quarterback?
For the second consecutive year, Bears general manager Ryan Poles is faced with a difficult dilemma: should Chicago move on from Justin Fields, or trade the first overall pick to a quarterback-needy team.
With the Bears sitting with what should be Carolina’s first overall pick in hand, it’s easy to say Chicago made the right decision last year, but it’s more complicated than that. It’s true that few (if any) teams would take the player Carolina selected at #1 (Bryce Young) over Fields in a vacuum right now, but it’s also true that every team would take Houston’s C.J. Stroud, the second overall pick, over either of the aforementioned players.
It’s a complicated discussion, so I went back to review the last four games of Chicago’s season to get a better feel for where this organization stands, both at quarterback and as a whole. This article will focus on the quarterback, so I’ll keep the latter to two general observations.
1. The defense - particularly with the news that cornerback Jaylon Johnson will be back on the franchise tag - is on the rise. They need to replace safety Eddie Jackson, a cap casualty, and a handful of rotational linemen (tackle Justin Jones, ends Yannick Ngakoue and Rasheem Green) up front, but everything is in place for this group to be at least above-average. (Update: Jaylon Johnson signed a multi-year extension after originally having the franchise tag applied.)
2. They may need to add some depth, but the offense has solid talent at critical positions. Darnell Wright could add polish as a pass-protector, but the massive right tackle was a presence in the run game as a rookie and played solid ball while showcasing the physical tools that could allow him to become much more. His bookend, Braxton Jones, is a solid player (and an exceptionally valuable asset with two years left on a 5th-round rookie deal), tight end Cole Kmet is a “plus” player as an inline tight end, and D.J. Moore is a blue-chip receiver. The interior offensive line is just ok - it will be interesting to see whether trade acquisition Ryan Bates slots in with Teven Jenkins and Nate Davis as the starters, and who plays center in that scenario - and they need to address the receiver depth, but this is a solid landing spot for any quarterback.
As for the quarterback, the Bears don’t have a bad option, but they don’t have a certain one, either. We’re about to get into the details, but one obvious takeaway on Justin Fields is that he is still a prospect; he’s just a prospect we’re evaluating based on NFL film. Fields possesses immense physical talent; the question is whether the Bears want to bet on his continued development, or start fresh with a college prospect (presumably USC’s Caleb Williams).
Fields the Player
Three seasons into his NFL career, Justin Fields has shown that he is an electric athlete. Fields is 6’3, 230, and ripped off four 40+ yard runs in the 2022 NFL season. He has a solid highlight reel of big-time throws; one that popped from the games I studied was this back-shoulder pass to D.J. Moore.
Fields has also shown that he can deliver intermediate throws with accuracy; there may be a bias to plays where he “sees” his option early, but completions like the following one still show good ball placement.
In fact, the only complaint I have about what Fields can do physically is his elongated delivery in quick game from the gun; the following clips also show a lack of eye control, but the longer throwing motion narrows Fields’s margin for error in both the screen game and these short passing concepts. As you can see, that’s a significant problem, because it means that defenders are getting their hands on the ball in potential pick-six situations.
It’s an area that Fields could improve, but ultimately, it shouldn’t be a deal-breaker. It’s much less of an issue if the Bears put Fields under center more - one of a few reasons Fields might be better off in a Shanahan-style offense - but if Chicago moves on from Fields, it’s not going to be because of anything physical; it will be about his vision as a passer and his down-to-down accuracy.
The second point is a quick one to address; Fields needs to tighten up his ball placement on short routes. A flat route is the easiest example; when humming, the best quarterbacks in the NFL are putting damn near every flat route on the receiver’s proper shoulder, making routine plays look routine, to paraphrase Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin. I’m not going to parade examples, but suffice to say that Fields does not do that; there are too many random under and over-throws that turn short gains into dead plays.
There’s reason to think Fields can improve in that area - plenty of NFL quarterbacks have found ways to tighten up their mechanics - but it’s more difficult to say if he will start processing passing concepts at a higher level. It’s unfair to suggest Fields is a lost cause - we just saw Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson make strides in this area in Year 6 - but it’s tough to leave open opportunities like this one on the field.
Of course, you never want to take one play like this out of context, but this is a theme in Fields’s game. It shows up even more under pressure; I’m not suggesting this is easy, but I’d lay money that the best quarterbacks in the NFL would understand that the in-breaking concept D.J. Moore is running here is likely to come open, and would have used that last split-second to find a platform and deliver this route (for fadeaway passers, potentially a step back and to the right) rather than going into run mode.
All things considered, I would love to build an offense around Justin Fields - and I think there is a very real chance new Bears offensive coordinator Shane Waldron would do a significantly better job of that than Matt Nagy and Luke Getsy have - and if the Bears were picking at #9, it would be full steam ahead with Fields.
However, the Bears aren’t just picking at #9; unlike most teams, who lack a clear path to upgrade at quarterback (say, Denver or Las Vegas), Chicago has the first overall pick in a draft that has three options at the top of the board. USC’s Caleb Williams appears to be the bell of the ball, but like 2023, there are different flavors available if Ryan Poles likes a different option.
The Value Discussion
To further complicate this discussion, Ryan Poles isn’t just picking a quarterback. He’s building a team, and the team around that quarterback could look very different depending on which route he takes.
If the Bears opted to move the first overall pick, it’s reasonable to assume they could get a similar haul to last year, when they got D.J. Moore, the 9th and 61st picks in 2023, a first-rounder in 2024 (this year’s #1 pick), and a second-rounder in 2025. Even if the Panthers hadn’t blown up on the launchpad, Chicago would likely hold two top-16 picks in this year’s loaded class, which would allow them to accrue a significant amount of potential surplus value (value of performance > cap hit) across the roster; making that type of move two years in a row could wind up putting Chicago in the discussion as the most talented roster in the NFL.
The flip side of that is that while the first overall pick would return more trade value, it also offers the potential for the most valuable asset in the NFL: a starting quarterback on a rookie deal.
It would be bittersweet to get a middling return for Fields - the reported lack of interest around him speaks to the fact that he is a specific type of player - but at the same time, I would understand writing Fields off as a sunk cost if I were in love with a quarterback at #1 overall. Fields is still an ascending player, and he hasn’t been in the best situations, but the need for improvement is real.
Ultimate Decision
I came down much closer to a coin flip than I thought I would entering this exercise. I believe NFL teams can win with Justin Fields, and that he could be an impact player next season he got into an offense that did a better job of leveraging the threat he presents with his legs.
That said, Fields is a specific type of player, and given the hype around this year’s quarterback class, I can understand why Poles would start fresh if he loves one of these signal callers. There is every chance one of them is much further along in his development (see C.J. Stroud), and the gap between Fields and Stroud is arguably the biggest single improvement the Bears could make during this year’s offseason.
Of course, they would still need to get the right quarterback, and the offense around Fields would be loaded if a trade down allowed them to take one of the top three receivers (Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State; Malik Nabers, LSU; Rome Odunze, Washington) AND one of these elite offensive tackle prospects; the Bears would probably be looking for a candidate they could kick inside to guard, where several prospects have All-Pro potential (NFL.com’s Daniel Jeremiah has noted that Taliese Fuaga (Oregon State) and Troy Fautanu (Washington) could fit that bill).
Due to the uncertainty of quarterback evaluations, and the importance of building up a roster around any quarterback, I thought I would lean toward trading the pick, but Chicago doesn’t appear to have a bad option here. Poles can rely heavily on head coach Matt Eberflus and Waldron; given that every option is a relative positive, they can lean into whatever has them most excited.
NFL Twitter won’t see it this way - there always has to be one right choice in that world - but this is like choosing between different paired face cards in Texas Hold ‘Em; the percentages might differ, but there is a solid chance of success with any of the options.
It might not be a dramatic take, but whether Chicago trades Fields or keeps him, my response will be a relative shrug. The relative outlook for the 2024 Bears will be similar whether it is Justin Fields, Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, or Jayden Daniels under center in Week One; no matter which direction Chicago goes, this team should have every expectation of competing for the playoffs in 2024, and potentially pushing for a division title in a potentially loaded NFC North. Any of the four could turn out to be a top-tier player in the right situation, but regardless of offseason evaluations, we won’t know that until September; until then, Bears fans should take an opportunity to feel optimistic about a team that appears to be headed in a solid direction.
What’s Next
We should have plenty of news on free agency out of the illegal tampering period by early next week; look out for an NFL Transactions update early next week, or, if something unexpected develops, over the weekend!
Thanks for reading The ESSENTIAL NFL Newsletter; I also covered the Justin Fields decision on The ESSENTIAL NFL Podcast, which you can check out on Spotify or Youtube (more channels to come!)